Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 335442 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #450 on: May 08, 2021, 06:37:01 PM »



Prince William delegate turnout.

Does turnout in individual counties even matter?  I thought things are weighted in advance with jurisdictions that vote more Republican in past elections more weight.

Yes areas are weighted so turnout matters less. However a energized area likely has something motivating them to cast their votes. No idea how things relate in that regard though.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #451 on: May 08, 2021, 06:52:38 PM »



Prince William delegate turnout.

Does turnout in individual counties even matter?  I thought things are weighted in advance with jurisdictions that vote more Republican in past elections more weight.

Yes areas are weighted so turnout matters less. However a energized area likely has something motivating them to cast their votes. No idea how things relate in that regard though.

I like how one vote wasn't counted/accepted because the voter fled.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #452 on: May 08, 2021, 06:59:37 PM »

Anyway, here's some broader turnout trends. A baseline of 30k-ish may tilt things towards the most committed.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #453 on: May 08, 2021, 07:23:55 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2021, 08:05:50 PM by brucejoel99 »


Hmmm... R-VA? Check. Cowardly fails to uphold their pledge? Check.

Chase is Woodbury confirmed.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #454 on: May 08, 2021, 07:31:23 PM »

If Snyder gets the nomination and Chase runs as a conservative independent, I kind of wonder how much she'll get.

I also think the media, being as terrible as they are, will give her outrageous statements free coverage if she's in the general as the GOP nominee or an independent, but luckily, Virginia is much bluer than the country.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #455 on: May 08, 2021, 07:56:33 PM »



Snyder appears confident, which therefore begs the question about Chase's potential spoiler campaign.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #456 on: May 08, 2021, 09:09:19 PM »

I'm getting tons of spam emails tonight bashing Youngkin which makes me think people know something and Youngkin won, but who knows.

I am secretly rooting for Chase because it offers voters clarity on what the GOP stands for.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #457 on: May 08, 2021, 09:10:05 PM »

I'm worried the youngkin vs mcaufflie race will be so close that some violence between their supporters is possible

Is there any reason to believe that McAuliffe will win by anything but a comfortable margin?

No there isn't.  McAuliffe is going to cruise to victory no matter who the GOP nominee is.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #458 on: May 08, 2021, 10:36:46 PM »



Snyder appears confident, which therefore begs the question about Chase's potential spoiler campaign.

I guess he's the nominee then. TBH i wouldn't;t put much stake in this.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #459 on: May 09, 2021, 09:36:05 AM »



Snyder appears confident, which therefore begs the question about Chase's potential spoiler campaign.

I guess he's the nominee then. TBH i wouldn't;t put much stake in this.

He sounds like a d-bag.  Can't wait to vote against him in November.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #460 on: May 09, 2021, 12:15:35 PM »



Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.
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Storr
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« Reply #461 on: May 09, 2021, 01:59:26 PM »



Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.
Such a diverse group of the VAGOP's finest.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #462 on: May 09, 2021, 02:07:13 PM »

https://twitter.com/DelRichAnderson/status/1391420043611807750?s=20

Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.

Such a diverse group of the VAGOP's finest.

And they're surely all fully vaccinated, too, given that they're all gathered indoors in close proximity for a presumably extended period of time without a single one of them wearing a mask.
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Canis
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« Reply #463 on: May 09, 2021, 03:53:16 PM »

Lol I really think best case scenario for Dems is Snyder winning and Chase running as a indy. But even like Cox who is the VA GOPS best candidate could at best keep the race within in low single digits. Crazy how Blue Virginia is now compared to ten years ago.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #464 on: May 09, 2021, 04:21:42 PM »

Vpap is providing returns as the GOP provides them.  Have no idea what they mean though
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #465 on: May 09, 2021, 04:33:09 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2021, 04:40:27 PM by Oryxslayer »

Vpap is providing returns as the GOP provides them.  Have no idea what they mean though

Its the weighted votes per candidate, with voted weighted by geographic prominence and the total resident GOP. Formula for received support is (Number of Ballots Received/Total Ballots Cast) x Number of Assigned Delegate Votes. Miyares is the candidate that the GOP 'wants' to win if they want to seriously contest the office, so a close final ballot or a loss would be disadvantageous.



This is a weighted vote map, so if someone drops from the process, say because they don't understand or like RCV and just put the first preference, the weighted vote total remains the same.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #466 on: May 09, 2021, 04:55:43 PM »



This very likely puts Smith ahead for Round 1, and probably means he will have the transfer advantage in NOVA. Big failure for the GOP if Smith wins, and a poor sign for other 'favorite' candidates.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #467 on: May 09, 2021, 05:11:07 PM »

Just curious, since this "convention" isn't run by the state, is there anything stopping someone from participating in the R vote and then turning around and voting in the D primary in June?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #468 on: May 09, 2021, 06:05:38 PM »

First round weighted GOP convention votes totals:

Jason Miyares: 36.56%, 4,590 weighted votes

Chuck Smith: 34.45%, 4,325 weighted votes

Jack White: 14.98%, 1,881 weighted votes

Leslie Haley: 14.01%, 1,758 weighted votes

Haley did best in and around Chesterfield which she a supervisor of. Her weighted votes are the first to be reallocated.

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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #469 on: May 09, 2021, 06:12:33 PM »

https://twitter.com/DelRichAnderson/status/1391420043611807750?s=20

Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.

Such a diverse group of the VAGOP's finest.

And they're surely all fully vaccinated, too, given that they're all gathered indoors in close proximity for a presumably extended period of time without a single one of them wearing a mask.

Uh no... its been challenging to get Republicans in VA to get their vaccine.

They want zero lockdowns .. which I strongly agree with .. but not willing to take any steps to mitigate spread or be vaccinated. It's contradictory 
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #470 on: May 09, 2021, 06:19:38 PM »

^
Should we tell him?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #471 on: May 09, 2021, 06:37:05 PM »

This is going fast, because they just have to reallocate votes on a computer rather than count them. It remains close among raw Haley voters between smith and Miyares.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #472 on: May 09, 2021, 06:44:46 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2021, 06:48:14 PM by Roll Roons »



Virginia GOP and shooting themselves in the foot. Can't think of two things that go together better.

Yes, I know Democrats would be favored, but Miyares would probably have a better shot at pulling off an upset.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #473 on: May 09, 2021, 06:51:23 PM »

Also a reminder that Chuck Smith supports Amanda Chase's gubernatorial campaign, if one wishes to draw that conclusion from his strong and potentially successful challenge to Miyares.
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Torrain
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« Reply #474 on: May 09, 2021, 06:52:44 PM »


Virginia GOP and shooting themselves in the foot. Can't think of two things that go together better.

Yes, I know Democrats would be favored, but Miyares would probably have a better shot at pulling off an upset.

If these results bear out - the FL Dems might finally have company in the bottom tier of state parties. This whole situation seems needlessly damaging for them.

But I guess they're trapped, between the Trumpian bent of the GOP base, and VA’s political climate, which is about as far as you can get from that.
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