Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Duke of York]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

[Oryxslayer]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

No, she's not favored, but not exactly disfavored - whereas she would at this point by a full election/insider convention. And yes, if she's the nominee then a Dem landslide becomes a possibility.

[brucejoel99]

Honestly the most interesting part by far is the the Dem LG primary race because it's the only part that's competitive. McAuliffe and Herring are both heavily favored to win the primary and general elections. So the next month determines whether Rasoul, Ayala, or maybe someone else is the LG. They'll be "next in line," for the governorship in 2025, unless Herring has sufficiently restored his image.

Herring seems likely to beat Jones? Last I heard, the entire establishment was coalescing behind Jones including Northam himself.

If anything, the establishment of the Democratic Party is split between Herring and Jones, with the House leadership backing Herring, though to be fair Jones is getting a bit more of their support over the incumbent. 

Of course, what's yet to be mentioned is the polling of the AG's race that's been conducted thus far. Though there's admittedly little of it as of yet, what has been conducted shows that Herring is likely to completely destroy Jones.

[LtNOWIS]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

No, she's not favored, but not exactly disfavored - whereas she would at this point by a full election/insider convention. And yes, if she's the nominee then a Dem landslide becomes a possibility.

Normal conventions in Virginia aren't for insiders, they're for whoever wants to sign up and show up. You don't get any savvy insiders, you get extremist idiots who drive to the convention site and think that EW Jackson is a viable candidate because he gave a good speech or something.

[Skill and Chance]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.

with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

It is possible but it doesn't mean it's likely.

It's very candidate dependent.  I could see Youngkin making it as close as 2013.  Chase probably loses as badly as Stewart in 2018.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

I don't know why, but that made me laugh.

'No, you can't vote in it. You're a failure'

[Oryxslayer]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

No, she's not favored, but not exactly disfavored - whereas she would at this point by a full election/insider convention. And yes, if she's the nominee then a Dem landslide becomes a possibility.

Normal conventions in Virginia aren't for insiders, they're for whoever wants to sign up and show up. You don't get any savvy insiders, you get extremist idiots who drive to the convention site and think that EW Jackson is a viable candidate because he gave a good speech or something.

Your right to some extent, but there was a reason the people who didn't want Chase to win pushed for a convention. When selecting a statewide nominee, the VAGOP uses something like an electoral college to correct for turnout disparities natural at a single convention building. The radials who drive up are concentrated in a single geographic grouping and have their votes diluted, since they all came from the surrounding area or were bussed in from another part of the state for a perticular reason. The elected party members from across the state who would show up to the thing no matter where its held dominate the blocks with less delegates and have their votes magnified, giving them a greater say over the nominee.

Having multiple "convention" (firehouse primary) sites across the state, as is being done this weekend, offers more geographic area for motivated radicals and ensures every region has a healthy number of delegates, which is why Chase has an outside shot.

Now for any race without this system is exactly like you describe, I have not forgotten Good vs Riggleman.

[Oryxslayer]

PPP poll of 695 Republican primary voters. Two problems: this is not a primary, and its coming from PPP which doesn't exactly have experience polling GOP primarys. They are a dem outfit and have a reason to pump for Chase. But it show good turnout among the most motivated can easily make her the nominee.

[LtNOWIS]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

Actually now that I think about it, I'm curious as to your voter history. I'm not a convention delegate either, but I was in 2013 and 2014. And I voted in various GOP primaries since then.  My mailbox is absolutely flooded with mailers against and for Youngkin, Snyder, and to a lesser extent Cox. And some stuff for the AG race.  But I've heard basically nothing for or against Chase at any point.

So we have completely separate mail piles, it seems.

[DINGO Joe]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

I don't know why, but that made me laugh.

'No, you can't vote in it. You're a failure'

Well, I was mainly being facetious and not trying to be mean, but it's an absurd process and since nobody knows who these voters/delegates are the campaigns are just spamming like crazy apparently.

[PSOL]

It’s obvious Lee Carter has ran a terrible campaign here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1391013962129477634?s=20

The chase quip is certainly interesting. Voter motivation is also interesting.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1391013962129477634?s=20

The chase quip is certainly interesting. Voter motivation is also interesting.

I wonder if this bodes well for Chase to get the nomination.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/LawAmericanX/status/1391064169542307850?s=20

This is in NOVA.

Live GOP convention updates

[LtNOWIS]

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/details-may-8-gop-convention/

VPAP has the schedule for how they're going to do the count and release results. They're gonna bring all the ballots to Richmond, and begin counting on 1 PM Sunday. First they'll do it for the AG race, then the LG race, then the Gubernatorial race. They'll be finished with all three races by Tuesday, unless they get ahead of schedule.

[President Johnson]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

[LtNOWIS]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

In Virginia, for every race, the party can decide how they choose their nominees. Sometimes they go for a primary, sometimes they go for a convention or some other party-run process. In even years, you will see different congressional districts use different methods.

For the Republican party, there is a bitter divide among the activists among people who like primaries and people who like conventions. The pro-convention people argue that a primary has non-Republicans voting in it, because Virginia is an "open primary" state. And also that a candidate can win with only a plurality of the vote, not a majority. Therefore a primary cannot truly represent the will of the party itself. The pro-primary people argue that conventions are a huge waste of time, make it impossible for people to vote if they have other commitments, and produce awful, unelectable candidates. Then there are some people in the middle who choose on a case-by-case basis for each race.

So when choosing statewide nominees, the Virginia GOP had conventions in 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2014, and primaries in 2012, 2017, 2018, and 2020. Either the pro-conventionists are ascendant in the party now, or the pragmatists thought this would be a good way to stop Amanda Chase from winning the nomination with only a plurality of the vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

Because they want to nominate Youngkin so he can lose by 6 points instead of Amanda Chase who will lose by 12 points.  Republicans are very strategic.

[Roll Roons]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

Because they want to nominate Youngkin so he can lose by 6 points instead of Amanda Chase who will lose by 12 points.  Republicans are very strategic.

Chase would lose by at least 15.

[Duke of York]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

Because they want to nominate Youngkin so he can lose by 6 points instead of Amanda Chase who will lose by 12 points.  Republicans are very strategic.

Chase would lose by at least 15.

I hope she gets the nomination. I want to see a landslide loss for Republicans.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/AmandaChaseVA/status/1391150084377677826

[jamestroll]

I'm worried the youngkin vs mcaufflie race will be so close that some violence between their supporters is possible

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm worried the youngkin vs mcaufflie race will be so close that some violence between their supporters is possible

Is there any reason to believe that McAuliffe will win by anything but a comfortable margin?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DanielBerti12/status/1391164856439611396?s=20

Prince William delegate turnout.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/DanielBerti12/status/1391164856439611396?s=20

Prince William delegate turnout.

Does turnout in individual counties even matter?  I thought things are weighted in advance with jurisdictions that vote more Republican in past elections more weight.