Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Panhandle Progressive]

HOW THE YEAR WILL END:

[Skill and Chance]

Look at the swing of the Shenandoah Valley from 2004 to 2020. It is an attractive area to live in and it would not be unrealistic to expect some internal migrations there. Lower cost of living, phenomenal scenery, and not completely isolated from civilization.

Still votes crushingly Republican though



But votes much like present day Missouri and Indiana.

Wealthier mountain towns => Dem and warm middle class resort areas => GOP is a big story since the Bush era that IMO has been undersold. 

[DINGO Joe]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-governors-race/2021/02/22/c256f9fe-6be5-11eb-9ead-673168d5b874_story.html#click=https://t.co/NXBaFjKn7N

This article says that Kirk Cox opposes gay marriage. Makes it that much easier for VA Democrats to tie him to notorious homophobe Young Kim. They'll be guaranteed to hit Mark Warner's 2008 map at least.

[LtNOWIS]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

[KaiserDave]

I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

[jamestroll]

I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

Well so many people are SCREAMING that suburbs and white college voters will all go back to the GOP now that Trump is out of office. In theory that would have an outsized effect in Virginia. But Nova /=/ other suburbs.

I agree Democrats will win this election but not by much. Single digits.

[Woody]

The only we can do is to pray for lower turnout/cut the margins in Fake Virginia, that's the only way we can win statewide here.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

I agree Democrats will win this election but not by much. Single digits.

I mean, Northam didn't win by much. "Only" a 9 point single-digit victory.

If they get a similar result in a "BIDEN MID QUARTERTERM!!!", I'd think of that as a big success for VA Dems.

[jamestroll]

I predict with medium-high confidence that the GOP will carry Chesterfield County, VA in November.

They will not even come close in Henrico or Loudoun counties despite people believe there is no path to a GOP victory in the state without them.

[Non Swing Voter]

There's perhaps a path for the GOP to win while losing Loudoun if they at least cut the margin down to just a couple of points + juiced up turnout in rural Virginia.  I suspect the opposite will happen though.   Large Dem margin in Loudoun (~20) and repressed turnout in rural Virginia.  If Terry McAuliffe wins the primary then he's almost certainly going to win comfortably.

[Non Swing Voter]

The only we can do is to pray for lower turnout/cut the margins massive rain in Fake tax-paying Virginia, that's the only way we the people who cry about socialism but benefit from NOVA's handouts can win statewide here.

FTFY

[President Johnson]

I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

This will be funny to bump once T-Mac easily won the election.

[Chips]

It's Likely D. There is a path for the GOP nominee here but it takes a whole bunch of things going right.

[VAR]

The Republican candidates are so boring. Like, three of them are running on the same message, and Amanda Chase is... well, Amanda Chase.

Jill Vogel should’ve ran.

[jamestroll]

The Republican candidates are so boring. Like, three of them are running on the same message, and Amanda Chase is... well, Amanda Chase.

Jill Vogel should’ve ran.

They are running on opening up schools when by fall all schools will be fully open! And right now the largest districts in the state are on a hybrid model.  Even I am sympathetic to the pandemic concerns of many children and parents. I always chuckle when the anti-school openers think we want to force kids to be exposed to the virus. Almost all school reopening plans include a virtual open. That is rationale during the pandemic but it can't be a permanent option.

Pete Snyder's may message may have won him a gubernatorial election yesterday but not on November 2nd.  Plus the restrictions during covid in Virginia have been rather light compared to most Biden states.

I agree that Jill Vogel would have probably been their best best. Kirk Cox is so boring... yawnnn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we do is take from VA and NJ and what it means to history, if the outparty makes gains in the next midterm like 2009 when Christie and Bob McDowell win NJ and VA and D's lost 2010 midterms due to Obamacare and in 2017/ of course Murphy took over for Doug Christie and D's had a successful Midterm in 2018 due to Trump first impeachment, outparty gain seats

The fact the Rs are gonna lose both doesn't bode well for their chances in 2022/ Biden only have to sure up MI WI and PA and he has a 52% approval not 40% Trump 1962/1998/2002/ Inc Prez had 52% approvals like Biden. 2016 when they ran against Hillary was the last time they cracked the blue wall, 5 yrs ago and she was scandalous

Wave insurance are 52 with GA Runoffs, NC and OH, but we haven't seen a poll in NC, we won Gov race in 2020.

Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016, 5 yrs

[jamestroll]

So I did some calculations. Numbers will vary because people will have different opinions on which counties are party of "metro" areas in Missouri and Virginia. Particularly Hampton Roads.

But for Missouri Trump won non-metro Missouri with 76% of the vote.

Using that same ration for Virginia, which I adjusted to 75% Trump to 25% Biden to account for some disagreement on metro area lines, if Trump won rural Virginia by the same ratio as he won rural Missouri Biden would have won the state of Virginia only 51% to 48%.

If rural Virginia whites voted like whites further south and the GOP made marginal black gains, 75% in rural VA is not unrealistic!

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Minnesota would be over before they started if their hick areas voted like rural Missouri.

But basically a Republican candidate would have to get rural MO numbers in rural VA and get the people in Great Falls, McLean in Fairfax County to vote GOP and win back Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach handily to win statewide.

[mpbond]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this definitely seems like a way to get more extreme conservative candidates, right? Just as a matter of practicality moderate NOVA Republicans will be less likely to drive all the way down to Lynchburg. The delegates will probably be mostly the more conservative Republicans from the Lynchburg area/southside just out of geographic practicality.

[Oryxslayer]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this definitely seems like a way to get more extreme conservative candidates, right? Just as a matter of practicality moderate NOVA Republicans will be less likely to drive all the way down to Lynchburg. The delegates will probably be mostly the more conservative Republicans from the Lynchburg area/southside just out of geographic practicality.

Yes, conventions tends to select more radical candidates than primaries simply because those radical views motive you to seek change within the party and go to said convention. See the meaningless results of recent Utah republican conventions and how they compare to the primary. However, conventions also tend to avoid selecting those with bad inter-party relations, even if it means they are connected to the radical base, because the delegates are all party insiders even if they are more radical. This is why Chase preferred a primary to a convention.

[LtNOWIS]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this definitely seems like a way to get more extreme conservative candidates, right? Just as a matter of practicality moderate NOVA Republicans will be less likely to drive all the way down to Lynchburg. The delegates will probably be mostly the more conservative Republicans from the Lynchburg area/southside just out of geographic practicality.

People who go to conventions are crazier, yes. Signing up ahead of time through your local party is tough for someone who isn't a dedicated activist. But the votes are weighted by county or city, which mitigates any geographic concerns. In addition to preventing the area in the immediate vicinity of the convention site from having an undue influence, it means that you can't just whip up 500 people from your tiny home county to make the trip and have an undue influence that way. I haven't confirmed that they're using weighted votes, but in my experience that's always how they did it at every state and district convention.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/1367490301657554945?s=20

Big slap in the face to Herring.

[Sir Mohamed]

So, Herring's bid is pretty much done, right? I remember that he had extremely weak fundraising numbers posted some pages back. The blackface stuff seems to have finished him off, while Northam has recovered because his performance in office is solid. If he was able to run again, he'd probably win reelection (while McAuliffe doesn't challenge him).

[Duke of York]

So, Herring's bid is pretty much done, right? I remember that he had extremely weak fundraising numbers posted some pages back. The blackface stuff seems to have finished him off, while Northam has recovered because his performance in office is solid. If he was able to run again, he'd probably win reelection (while McAuliffe doesn't challenge him).

If Jones gets the nomination that will likely help with black turnout.

[Not Me, Us]

Is it just me, or does Jay Jones give off “future president” vibes?