Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Lief 🗽]

Things can go very badly very fast in midterms. Virginia swung 23 points Republican between 2008 and 2009. Kirk Cox is at least narrowly favored against everyone but The Macker.

Virginia is a fundamentally more Democratic state than it was in 2009. It is only half-exaggerating to say that it might as well be California at this point.

Biden won Virginia by 10 points. He won California by 29 points! That's an absurd exaggeration.

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

[Lief 🗽]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

I feel like if Hogan can convince suburban Democrats to vote for him in Maryland, there's no reason to think Republicans cannot do the same in VA. And they actually need fewer of them in VA, since it's like 20 points to the right of MD.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

I feel like if Hogan can convince suburban Democrats to vote for him in Maryland, there's no reason to think Republicans cannot do the same in VA. And they actually need fewer of them in VA, since it's like 20 points to the right of MD.

If Hogan wasn't running on incumbency in the Trump/post-Trump era he would never have gotten that many people to vote for him. His presence in 2021 is a pure 2014 legacy effect. It'll take something seismic to make these voters available to even the mildest Republican.

[Mr.Phips]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

A winning GOP map doesn’t exist without winning Loudon or Henrico counties.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

TMac - Safe D

McClellan/Foy - Likely D

Fairfax - Toss-Up

Carter - Lean R

Yes, because being a socialist will make it worse then being a rapist.

I mean, unironically yes.

Fairfax's defense in a general election will be "It never happened, I was set up, and I've never been charged". As we've seen with many other politicians, the public is willing to look past things like that if they support the politician.

Carter is a terminally online clown who will embarrass himself in a statewide election. He would basically be the left-wing equivalent of Christine O'Donnell's campaign.

But neither of them are getting the nomination and McAuliffe makes it Safe D.

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

A winning GOP map doesn’t exist without winning Loudon or Henrico counties.

Incorrect

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

I feel like if Hogan can convince suburban Democrats to vote for him in Maryland, there's no reason to think Republicans cannot do the same in VA. And they actually need fewer of them in VA, since it's like 20 points to the right of MD.

Maryland is too left wing a state for the Republicans to even think about nominating a non moderate. Virginia is right wing enough for the GOP to nominate a neo confederate, but get blown out in the general election.

[LtNOWIS]

I admit I don't understand Snyder or Youngkin.  I get Kirk Cox (generic republican), de la Pena (conservative but was military), and Chase but what are Snyder and Youngkin's lanes?  Are they just trying to portray themselves as business conservatives or is there something more?

Snyder should've been the Lt. Governor nominee in 2013, but the idiot convention attendees picked E.W. Jackson instead. Snyder lost on the 4th ballot. If there's another convention, he should have an advantage. He knows the system, he proved he can do well in it, and the delegates may remember him from back then.

Youngkin is a "conservative outsider" businessman, running in that lane. I got a mailer from him yesterday which has some painfully boilerplate talking points, but which does emphasize that he is "Not a Politician!" What really sets him apart though, is that his net worth is over $250 million. If there was a primary, he could easily self fund his way to victory. For a convention he'll have a tougher time but the money will still help.

So far I've gotten mailers from Snyder, Youngkin, and Cox, and nobody else. No Democrats have sent me anything.

For reference, I attended the 2013 and 2014 GOP conventions, and voted in GOP primaries in 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, and June 2020. I voted in Dem primaries in 2019 and March 2020.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

In other fall from grace news, we have Lee Carter.

After spending his political capital backing the biggest meme candidate of 2020, he's apparently burning his bridges with the local DSA (including his campaign manager from 2017). Apparently he got pissy over what he thought wasn't enough work for his priorities, and people criticizing his wife's DSA clone group/grift for doing nothing.

Now he's trying the Kennedy strat on them. He's spent the last few hours being terminally Online and  whining about DSA/Foy Bros or something like that. Really deranged stuff.

it really sucks because I used to like Lee, and he has spearheaded some really good stuff like the insulin cap.

[Former President tack50]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

While "even swing" is never a real thing that happens, for fun here is how an R victory looks in VA under such an even swing.



(click to enlarge)

Indeed, the GOP doesn't even need to come close in any of those. While even swing is unrealistic, cutting dems to the low-mid 50s would in those counties would be more than enough. Of course, the GOP also does need north Korean margins out of the rural areas.

The GOP does need to win some suburban counties  outright though, most notably: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Stafford and Chseterfield

Honestly, the Dem vote is insanely concentrated into just a handful of jurisdictions. Even under even swing, if for some bizarre reason the GOP managed a 10 point victory, they'd be cutting dems to just like 4 counties lol

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin is the one to watch.  He's going to have a heck of a time getting through the convention, but if he does, he's likely favored in the GE.

Nominating Chase would be throwing the GE away, and Snyder is old news now and pretty boring.  IDK about Kirk Cox, but holding on decisively in 2019 in that district was impressive and he has some bipartisan accomplishments he can sell. 

[Duke of York]

Youngkin is the one to watch.  He's going to have a heck of a time getting through the convention, but if he does, he's likely favored in the GE.

Nominating Chase would be throwing the GE away, and Snyder is old news now and pretty boring.  IDK about Kirk Cox, but holding on decisively in 2019 in that district was impressive and he has some bipartisan accomplishments he can sell.  

who is  Youngkin? I still think Chase is favored and would likely hurt Republicans down ballot.

[jamestroll]

Youngkin is the one to watch.  He's going to have a heck of a time getting through the convention, but if he does, he's likely favored in the GE.

Nominating Chase would be throwing the GE away, and Snyder is old news now and pretty boring.  IDK about Kirk Cox, but holding on decisively in 2019 in that district was impressive and he has some bipartisan accomplishments he can sell. 

Please explain why you think Youngkin is favored in the general election?

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

While "even swing" is never a real thing that happens, for fun here is how an R victory looks in VA under such an even swing.



(click to enlarge)

Indeed, the GOP doesn't even need to come close in any of those. While even swing is unrealistic, cutting dems to the low-mid 50s would in those counties would be more than enough. Of course, the GOP also does need north Korean margins out of the rural areas.

The GOP does need to win some suburban counties  outright though, most notably: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Stafford and Chseterfield

Honestly, the Dem vote is insanely concentrated into just a handful of jurisdictions. Even under even swing, if for some bizarre reason the GOP managed a 10 point victory, they'd be cutting dems to just like 4 counties lol

Yes. I think in a real life Virginia election in which the GOP wins, Fairfax would swing more than the statewide median. It does have many never Trumpers and Biden's 70% is not sustainable there. Clinton's 2016 performance is the better baseline. Loudoun may swing more than the statewide median as well but a Republican actually winning it? Nah.

[jamestroll]

https://roanoke.com/news/state-and-regional/house-leaders-northam-administration-propose-new-school-reopening-bill/article_53cac002-6f09-11eb-8c1f-134a5f73ca3c.html

House leaders, Northam administration propose new school reopening bill

Watch this bill. This will decide a lot how the Virginia Gubernatorial Election will be decided this fall.

RICHMOND — A push to reopen Virginia schools for in-person learning — using the force of state law — will face the will of House lawmakers this week.

House Democratic leaders and Gov. Ralph Northam’s administration are championing a new version of a Senate bill that would still compel in-person learning but offer school districts some flexibility in the face of an ever-evolving global crisis.

The new version, which will be introduced during a meeting of the House’s education panel Monday morning, would replace Senate Bill 1303 introduced by Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico, which passed the Senate Feb. 2 on a 26-13 vote with bipartisan support.

Dunnavant’s one-line bill simply says that all school districts “shall make virtual and in-person learning available to all students by choice of the student’s parent or guardian.”

In the midst of a pandemic it is rationale to provide a virtual learning option to parents who prefer. It is not rationale to stunt an entire generations of students learning and growth.

[VAR]

My #elastic #swingy friends in McLean would even vote for a QAnon candidate since 2021/2022 will be a B I D E N  M I D T E R M, but they were wondering if Youngkin was related to YOUNG KIM (whom they hate with a burning passion), so yeah... not a good sign.

[WD]

My #elastic #swingy friends in McLean would even vote for a QAnon candidate since 2021/2022 will be a B I D E N  M I D T E R M, but they were wondering if Youngkin was related to YOUNG KIM (whom they hate with a burning passion), so yeah... not a good sign.

true, one of my friends in alexandria, who’s a obama-obama-clinton-northam-kaine-biden voter will be voting a straight r ticket in 2021. he’d usually vote for a democrat but it’s a biden midterm so he has no choice tbh

[jamestroll]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

[tosk]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

I'd say maybe and maybe, no? only so far restrictions can be pushed. I'm not going to argue there's a scenario where republicans are the favorite but i'd assume these two scenarios are some of the closest  we'd get to having our shot. Especially with Cox/Snyder/Youngkin as the nominee

[jamestroll]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

1) Lee Carter and Justin Fairfax are not acceptable nominees.

2) Contrary to popular belief.. indefinite virtual school is not going to be popular. and it is not unreasonable to think that if this fall there is a small covid resurgence and Democratic governors lock down over that and the flu that there would be a backlash. Especially if this fall, kids in Virginia are still not in school.

[Duke of York]

The gop will win if

1) Lee Carter or Justin Fairfax are the nominees

And/or

2) schools remain closed or covid restrictions are enhanced.

1. Maybe.

2. No.

1) Lee Carter and Justin Fairfax are not acceptable nominees.

2) Contrary to popular belief.. indefinite virtual school is not going to be popular. and it is not unreasonable to think that if this fall there is a small covid resurgence and Democratic governors lock down over that and the flu that there would be a backlash. Especially if this fall, kids in Virginia are still not in school.

I very much doubt democratic governors are going to do a lockdown over the flu.

[jamestroll]

Look at the swing of the Shenandoah Valley from 2004 to 2020. It is an attractive area to live in and it would not be unrealistic to expect some internal migrations there. Lower cost of living, phenomenal scenery, and not completely isolated from civilization.

Still votes crushingly Republican though



But votes much like present day Missouri and Indiana.

[MT Treasurer]

My #elastic #swingy friends in McLean would even vote for a QAnon candidate since 2021/2022 will be a B I D E N  M I D T E R M, but they were wondering if Youngkin was related to YOUNG KIM (whom they hate with a burning passion), so yeah... not a good sign.

"I’m a Kim guy through and through

Kim guy through and through

Kim guy through and through"

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