Evidence of massive swings in majority Latino/Asian areas, in California.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325908264131862528?s=19

[TDAS04]

I surprised about both, especially Asians.  If Garden Grove swung like that, did Trump do something as President to please Vietnamese-Americans?

[Bootes Void]

I surprised about both, especially Asians.  If Garden Grove swung like that, did Trump do something as President to please Vietnamese-Americans?

yea anti-china and anti-socialism stances may played well here. Also the BLM riots and some of the more left wing rhetoric back in 2019 may played a role after dems were making previous gains

[doc gerritcole]

I surprised about both, especially Asians.  If Garden Grove swung like that, did Trump do something as President to please Vietnamese-Americans?

ppl with actual memories of socialism tend to oppose it

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But MUH demographics.

[mileslunn]

How did Laguna Beach go as quite white but fairly Liberal.  Also looks like Biden won Brea which I believe Trump won in 2016 and Bush in 2004 got almost 2/3.  Seems whites in Orange County continued swing towards Biden, but amongst non-whites went backwards.  I am guessing law and order message helped Trump there as many are conservative on that.

[Ferguson97]

Is it possible that Clinton herself had a unique appeal to these groups? Biden appears to be a reversion to the mean.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Is it possible that Clinton herself had a unique appeal to these groups? Biden appears to be a reversion to the mean.

Who knows. I’m waiting for San Jose, Portland, Seattle, and Houston precinct results to see if non-OC Viets swung as hard R. They probably did, but maybe not by as much and might also be more D to begin with. It’d also be interesting to see if more Mexican areas in OR and WA swung R too.

If the Westminster 23% swing is a good proxy for the overall Vietnamese swing, and the preliminary 2020 AALDEF exit poll results showing a 24% R swing from 2016, (79-18 to 67-30) are accurate- then Vietnamese Americans might not have trended R compared to the broader Asian electorate.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Must be fraud.

I've been repeatedly assured by no one less than the President of the United States that changes in expected voting patterns are always fraud. (Or maybe it's always fraud when a Republican loses? Or is it fraud if he has trouble flushing the gold-plated toilet again and has to find someone else to blame for its contents. Sometimes it's a little unclear.) Perhaps for his next act Mr. Trump will suggest something like, "shutting this election down until we understand what's going on"?

[CityByTheValley]

Santa Clara County seems on track to swing to Trump slightly, breaking its record streak of having trended to the Democrats the most times over the past several elections nationally for any county.

This county is around 35% Asian, 30% Latino, and 30% White, so a great place to find and compare swings between these three groups. It should be noted that while the Latino population is almost entirely Mexican, the Asian group is heavily Chinese and Indian in the more affluent western part of the county that is known as Silicon Valley, while in the poorer east and central San Jose the Asian group is heavily Vietnamese. Therefore, the swings could be influenced by the socioeconomic standing of the Asian groups, and we could be seeing a college/non-college type shift as we see with Whites as well.

Most of the swing seems to be in San Jose, the largest city in the county with 1 million+ residents (around half the county's population). Within San Jose itself, the wealthier west side (Mostly Asian, some White, almost no Latinos), southern hills (Half Asian, half white, some Latinos), eastern hills (Mostly Asian, some White, some Latinos), has had a negligible or small swing to Trump, while the also wealthy neighborhood of Willow Glen (Mostly White, some Asian, some Latinos) and surrounding areas had a swing to Biden. In the less affluent areas of San Jose (Half Latino, half Asian, some White) the swing is more clearly to Trump.

Outside San Jose, Cupertino (70% Asian, 30% White), which is upper middle class (millionaire territory) and almost all Chinese and Indian with some Whites interspersed had no swing, while the rest of the West Valley from Los Gatos to Palo Alto (billionaire territory) swung to Biden, despite having a heavy Asian presence (around 30%) that is almost all Chinese and Indian. Again, I suspect in these areas wealth and education probably played a larger factor we'll probably see UMC and wealthy Asian communities follow the same education gap based swing toward Democrats, since patterns like this in the Bay Area seem to have happened in SoCal as well seeing as San Marino, often known as the Asian Beverly Hills, also swung towards Biden.

[SunSt0rm]

Not really suprising, one of my best friend (Vietnamese) has family in California and they are big Trump supporters mainly because of his anti-China stance and partly of 'socialism'. They were all voting Democrats in 2016 I heard. Even though my best friend parents here in Europe like Trump stance on China, they hate Trump on all other areas. Moreover, since Corona it has only fueled the  anti-China stance as they blame China for the current global crisis

Is it possible that Clinton herself had a unique appeal to these groups? Biden appears to be a reversion to the mean.

I think Clinton has one unique appeal to this group is that she was regarded as a hawk and many people were expecting her to take a hard stance regard China and Cuba. I hear very often that they regard Obama as a softy on foreign policy and probably it doesn't change much with Biden now and Trump taking a popular stance in these communities

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Santa Clara County seems on track to swing to Trump slightly, breaking its record streak of having trended to the Democrats the most times over the past several elections nationally for any county.

This county is around 35% Asian, 30% Latino, and 30% White, so a great place to find and compare swings between these three groups. It should be noted that while the Latino population is almost entirely Mexican, the Asian group is heavily Chinese and Indian in the more affluent western part of the county that is known as Silicon Valley, while in the poorer east and central San Jose the Asian group is heavily Vietnamese. Therefore, the swings could be influenced by the socioeconomic standing of the Asian groups, and we could be seeing a college/non-college type shift as we see with Whites as well.

Most of the swing seems to be in San Jose, the largest city in the county with 1 million+ residents (around half the county's population). Within San Jose itself, the wealthier west side (Mostly Asian, some White, almost no Latinos), southern hills (Half Asian, half white, some Latinos), eastern hills (Mostly Asian, some White, some Latinos), has had a negligible or small swing to Trump, while the also wealthy neighborhood of Willow Glen (Mostly White, some Asian, some Latinos) and surrounding areas had a swing to Biden. In the less affluent areas of San Jose (Half Latino, half Asian, some White) the swing is more clearly to Trump.

Outside San Jose, Cupertino (70% Asian, 30% White), which is upper middle class (millionaire territory) and almost all Chinese and Indian with some Whites interspersed had no swing, while the rest of the West Valley from Los Gatos to Palo Alto (billionaire territory) swung to Biden, despite having a heavy Asian presence (around 30%) that is almost all Chinese and Indian. Again, I suspect in these areas wealth and education probably played a larger factor we'll probably see UMC and wealthy Asian communities follow the same education gap based swing toward Democrats, since patterns like this in the Bay Area seem to have happened in SoCal as well seeing as San Marino, often known as the Asian Beverly Hills, also swung towards Biden.

Looks like Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties both swung around 5 points R from 2016 to 2020. Santa Clara is 72.7-25.2 Biden (4.6% swing R but +17k D raw vote margin from 2016). Los Angeles is 71.2-26.7 (4.8% swing R but +147k D raw vote margin from 2016).

Santa Clara CA (San Jose), Los Angeles CA, and Clark NV (Las Vegas) stick out like sore thumbs to me. In addition to Miami-Dade and Osceola in FL.

It's too small to see but it looks like San Francisco also swung to Trump.

Though for the three counties, it seems more of a case of Trump getting the 3rd party votes than Biden dropping from Hillary's percents

San Francisco didn't surprise me, it's basically maxed out for the federal Dems. It looks like Biden actually improved on Hillary's percentage so far (85.6% with 89% of the vote in). Trump got 9.2% in 2016 and has 12.4% right now per NYT.

Santa Clara has only 80% of the vote in per NYT- so far it looks like it swung 2% towards Trump while Biden improved on Hillary's percentage by 2%.

Los Angeles on the other hand has 94% of the vote in per NYT, and has swung 5-6% towards Trump from 2016. (71.0-26.8 versus 71.8-22.4).

[EastOfEden]

Seems like a pretty clear pro-incumbent swing to me. Perhaps this one is bigger than normal because of Trump's 2016 campaign pushing some Hispanic and Asian Rs to Clinton when they would have still voted R for someone like Rubio or Bush.

[wbrocks67]

Seems like a pretty clear pro-incumbent swing to me. Perhaps this one is bigger than normal because of Trump's 2016 campaign pushing some Hispanic and Asian Rs to Clinton when they would have still voted R for someone like Rubio or Bush.

Yeah, I feel like it makes more sense to be pro-incumbent than anything else. You honestly can't tell me that the 'socialism' and 'law & order" message worked against Joe Biden coming from Donald Trump. Come on.

Just like people keep saying OC snapped a bit back bc of anti-maskers, there's no evidence to support that the BLM protests hurt Democrats specifically. People just seem to be drawing their own conclusions based on their own preferred narrative.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

How much of the 2012->2016->2020 is people being scared of Trump and then calming down when the worst predictions didn't come true? I think that definitely plays a role here

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Law and order.
The same thing happened in the 90s.