FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Donerail]

Rubio isn't going to lose, but I doubt he wins by that much.

The FL democrats are already pretty incompetent at turning out their voters in presidential elections but in midterms under a democratic president they’re even worse (look at the 2014 races)

I seen an election that the Democrat lost by one percentage point. How does that square with:

the big question is more if democrats are able to keep their loss in the single digits

?

[Donerail]

Rubio isn't going to lose, but I doubt he wins by that much.

The FL democrats are already pretty incompetent at turning out their voters in presidential elections but in midterms under a democratic president they’re even worse (look at the 2014 races)

I seen an election that the Democrat lost by one percentage point. How does that square with:

the big question is more if democrats are able to keep their loss in the single digits

?

In 2014 Crist was able too keep things very close in the Gov race but other statewide democrats were trounced. (Crist was helped by the fact that he had a lot of crossover appeal in the Tampa area)

That makes no sense. The Democratic candidates for Ag Commish and CFO in 2014 were both no-name candidates who raised around $40,000, going up against popular incumbents who each easily cleared $4 million. Val Demings, a current member of Congress who would get a ton of financial support for her campaign against Lil Marco, is not at all comparable to Will Rankin or Thad Hamilton.

[Donerail]

That makes no sense. The Democratic candidates for Ag Commish and CFO in 2014 were both no-name candidates who raised around $40,000, going up against popular incumbents who each easily cleared $4 million. Val Demings, a current member of Congress who would get a ton of financial support for her campaign against Lil Marco, is not at all comparable to Will Rankin or Thad Hamilton.

The point was just to illustrate how incompetent the FL Democratic Party is, if the party had some good infrastructures even a very weak / no name candidate would still get around 45% of the vote, in PA for example where the Democratic Party is much better organised you’re not going to see a democratic statewide candidate losing by double digits.

The Pennsylvania Democrats have never nominated a "paper candidate" for statewide office in the last decade, so I'm not sure what evidence you're relying on to make this comparison. How can you be certain that a some dude Democrat in Pennsylvania would clear 45% against a GOP incumbent?

[Donerail]

Not sure what planet "UWS" is posting from but Donna Shalala, who is 79 years old, was not a "potential Dem rival" for the US Senate in 2022.

[Donerail]

After leaving GOP, David Jolly weighs his political future in Florida as an independent

The former Florida congressman is itching to run for public office in 2022 — possibly for U.S. Senate, though governor isn’t out of the question, either.

“I do think we could mount a viable campaign. But viable and winning look very different and require a lot of money.”

Jolly was named executive chairman of the Serve America Movement in March. He believes in the party’s mission enough to consider a quixotic run for U.S. Senate or governor to help grow the movement.

Jolly would be welcome to run under the banner of the Independent Party, said Ernie Bach, the party’s longtime chairman in Florida.

[Donerail]

Actually it's democrats who would be hurt the most by a Jolly candidacy

?? I don't think I (or Jolly, or the article) said anything otherwise. Seems obvious that an MSNBC talking head would draw more from Democrats.

[Donerail]

Murphy's district isn't as competitive anymore as she makes it out to be. She won reelection by 12%, and the district was handily carried by Biden. Gillum and Nelson both won her district in 2018 as well without any difficulty.

True of her current district. Maybe not true of her next one, which is why she's running now.

[Donerail]

lazy, reductive #analysis in this thread — Puerto Ricans & Mexicans don't have any reason to care about communism but you saw the same movement in Immokalee and in Kissimmee that you saw in Doralzuela

[Donerail]

It's not safe R, Biden Approvals aren't 40 percent, it's 53 percent, did you see the S Pete's poll that showed DeSantis tied before the Gaetz story

Current Biden approval is meaningless in a senate election 18 months out. Come on. DeSantis is popular and nobody will care about Gaetz by election day.

Current DeSantis approval is meaningless in a senate election 18 months out. Come on. Biden is popular

[Donerail]

No election is being won or lost over softball pants. Come on now.

[Donerail]

What’s interesting is that both Demmings and Murphy are from the same region. I wonder if this opens the door for a prominent South Florida politician to win the primary by consolidating the region in a split field - no idea who that might be and don’t know if one is even contemplating running. One of the major reasons Gwen Graham lost that ‘18 primary was due to abysmal performance in South Florida. Regional dynamics and investment do matter in the state. I’ve lived in Seminole county (Murphy’s backyard) and Miami-Dade and these places really are very different on many social and political dimensions.

The difficulty here is that I struggle to imagine a candidate who can consolidate "South Florida" — South Florida is internally split on so many of those "social and political dimensions" that one candidate can't possibly hope to cover all of them. What plays among Miami Cubans may not play w/ Haitians or retirees in Boca. In the absence of another black candidate, for instance, Demings should be able to win Lauderdale Lakes even if a "south Florida candidate" gets in, just like how Gillum was able to run up the score there despite Levine being from Miami.

[Donerail]

Every one of your posts is the exact same format: "This Democrat is DOOMED because Republicans will expose their hidden scandalous past, which you can read about in the biography section of their wikipedia page." Please get some new material.

[Donerail]

Better those two than Murphy or Fried, IMO. The latter two you can certainly argue are throwing away their political careers should they be nominated.

Not sure how you can make this argument for Fried, who will be forced to run statewide either way.

[Donerail]

Hispanic voters, that are key to victory in Florida, are becoming Republican as we saw recently in McAllen, Texas in a city that has an 85 % Hispanic population in a county that voted 58 % Biden and they elected a Republican mayor. That is mainly because of Hispanics’ opposition to socialism and support to free enterprise and because of the problems caused by the current border crisis. And that's why Hispanic voters will help put Rubio over the top

You're seriously going to unironically use a low turnout (12%) Saturday election in another state, in a part of said state that is infamous for low turnout even in regular elections, as part of a serious argument? Come on, you're better than this.

Hispanics in Florida are becoming even more Republican than others across the country.

Cuban-Americans, of course, support Rubio. And Venezuelan Americans, for example, are turning Republican due to Trump's handling of the Maduro threat.

That's why postmortem in Democratic strongholds like Doral, the city with the largest Venezuelan-born population in the country, showed a 41.4 percent swing toward Trump. In fact, Trump eked out a 1.4 percent win in the city in 2020 after having lost by 40 percent to Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she obtained 52 percent of the votes. And that's why Miami-Dade voted Biden by just 6 or 7.

And money doesn't really matter anymore. Beto O'Rourke outraised Ted Cruz and he lost. Jaime Harrison outraised Lindsey Graham and he failed miserably by losing by 10.

Tell me, how many Cubans or Venezuelans live in McAllen, Texas?

[Donerail]

Tell me, how many Cubans or Venezuelans live in McAllen, Texas?

If even Hispanics outside Florida who usually are more liberal than Cubans and Hispanics elected a Republican Mayor, then you can realize that Cubans and Venezuelan Americans will vote more to the right of these Hispanics in Southern Texas as they usually do.

There is no reason to believe that any movement among Mexicans will be mirrored exactly among Cubans. Why on earth would you believe those two things are related?

[Donerail]

Black voters are more optimistic among people who aren’t career politicians. Obama and Gillum were freshmen political figures and weren’t career politicians, that is unlike Demings. That’s why Hillary and Biden didn’t create such enthusiasm.

Obama had been in elected office for a decade before running for President. Gillum had been an elected official in Tallahassee for even longer. Demings ran for office in the first time in 2012 and recorded her first win in 2016 — by any measure, she is less of a "career politician" than either Obama or Gillum.