FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[S019]

Per Wikipedia, Marco Rubio has announced on Facebook that he will run again.

Can any Democrat make this competitive?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Corrine Brown

No lol

Debbie Wasserman Schultz would lose by 50 and I'd be right there voting against her.

As for Brown, she has too much baggage, including her felony fraud conviction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Political_controversies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Felony_fraud_conviction

Corrine Brown is a FL Dem-style bad outcome just waiting to happen, if she gets the nod for a statewide run.

Brown's legal troubles are why she lost her seat to Al Lawson in 2016. And during her time in Congress, she was one of the most ignorant and self-serving Representatives. I recall watching a YouTube clip of her infamous "Go Gators" speech on the House floor from about a decade or so ago. Her political career is finished, and if she were somehow the Democratic nominee, she would lose by close to double digits.

Redistricting also killed her because the FL supreme court made a decision stating that an Orlando to Jacksonville district was absurd(100% True) and then promptly made a Tallahassee to Jacksonville district(nearly as absurd)

Yes we understand that increasing minority representation is bad, you don't have to keep saying it over and over again.

[S019]

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

The 2022 Senate results according to Atlas:

IA
52.3% Abby Finkenauer (D)
46.0% Chuck Grassley (R, inc.)

OH
56.8% Josh Mandel (R)
39.4% Tim Ryan (D)

FL
54.4% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
42.1% Val Demings (D)

AZ
55.2% Mark Kelly (D, inc.)
42.2% Any AZ (R)epublican "lunatic" except AstroNUT slayer Doug Ducey

NC
53.1% Pat McCrory (R)
45.5% Jeff Jackson (D)

NV
50.29% Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc.)
44.55% Literally any Republican

NH
54.2% Chris Sununu (R)
43.8% Maggie Hassan (D, inc.)

semi-sarcastic reply

You really think Ryan is gonna lose by double digits and Josh Mandel lost by six points to Brown and we only won the PVI by 4.0 in 2012, NO

Ryan is much better as a candidate, we would win OH before IA, due to three C's have Afro American voters in OH

Sununu isn't winning in NH unless Rs win the PVI and they haven't won since 2014

I have a 54/46 Senate the same as Biden current approvals and passing Reparations and DC Statehood and Immigration reform

Ryan is screwed lol. I consider him losing by less than 10 pts to be an accomplishment. OH is a red state now and it’ll become even redder as the Appalachia hicks continue to trend Republican. Also 2014 was the last midterm under a Democratic president. So yes, it is a logical assumption that 2022 will be closer to the GCB of 2014 than 2020. Also PVI is a partisan index used by Cook, it is horribly out of date and doesn’t really apply here. Anyways, why am I wasting my time responding to you.

[S019]

Rubio is still ahead but DeSantis and Rubio aren't winning by 10 more like 5

Agreed on Rubio, but I have a very hard time seeing DeSantis win by 5, Biden's performance in Miami-Dade was more or less rock bottom for them and Democrats obviously have room to grow in Seminole+Duval, plus I'd expect Crist to get somewhat of a home bump in Pinellas, and also, I doubt DeSantis will do as well as Trump in Osceola.

[S019]

Hispanic voters, that are key to victory in Florida, are becoming Republican as we saw recently in McAllen, Texas in a city that has an 85 % Hispanic population in a county that voted 58 % Biden and they elected a Republican mayor. That is mainly because of Hispanics’ opposition to socialism and support to free enterprise and because of the problems caused by the current border crisis. And that's why Hispanic voters will help put Rubio over the top

You're seriously going to unironically use a low turnout (12%) Saturday election in another state, in a part of said state that is infamous for low turnout even in regular elections, as part of a serious argument? Come on, you're better than this.


Meanwhile in actual news:

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1403119295794720769?s=21

[S019]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-demings-2022-showdown-could-become-most-expensive-senate-race-ever.amp

[S019]

Will you stop with this, Olawakandi.

When does your algorithm reset next? Because this is getting old. Bring the new material already!

Florida Senate is probably winnable, Ohio is gone though, racist, uneducated Appalachian whites aren't coming back anytime soon.

[S019]

Will you stop with this, Olawakandi.

When does your algorithm reset next? Because this is getting old. Bring the new material already!

Florida Senate is probably winnable, Ohio is gone though, racist, uneducated Appalachian whites aren't coming back anytime soon.

The only Democrat to get a majority of the vote in Ohio since 1964 was a guy named Barack Obama and he did it twice

This doesn't change the fact that Democrats are extremely unlikely to win back Ohio with how much they've fallen in Appalachia.

[S019]

Will you stop with this, Olawakandi.

When does your algorithm reset next? Because this is getting old. Bring the new material already!

Florida Senate is probably winnable, Ohio is gone though, racist, uneducated Appalachian whites aren't coming back anytime soon.

The only Democrat to get a majority of the vote in Ohio since 1964 was a guy named Barack Obama and he did it twice

This doesn't change the fact that Democrats are extremely unlikely to win back Ohio with how much they've fallen in Appalachia.

It does disapprove the reason that Democrats have lost Ohio is due to racism

Well racism works in many ways, and ultimately the latest push by Republicans for historical revisionism and against police reform shows this. There were absolutely racist people who voted for Obama. But what Obama's presidency also did was accelerate white resentment in America, this combined with the Democrats becoming "woke" or whatever, left an electorate full of energized racists that was likely to vote Republican.