FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 05:43:48 AM
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  FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here  (Read 30608 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 22, 2020, 01:59:44 PM »

Democrats can win with a Latino who can shore up their support among Latinos. Darren Soto should run.

If Democratic strategists unironically believe that nominating a ‘Latino’ to appeal to the famously monolithic voting bloc of FL ‘Latinos’ is the obvious solution to their problem, FL is going to be even tougher for them than I would have thought.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2021, 02:05:08 PM »

Quote
Unlike Gillum, one of the most progressive candidates ever nominated by the state party for governor, Demings is more moderate in tone and policy, James said, “so Republicans can’t call her a socialist.”

Lol.

Actual party strategists who unironically believe that a candidate's actual ideology matters more than strategic branding & identity-based appeals (of which the 'socialist' line of attack is clearly one, and a rather ineffectual at that) is my favorite election 'thing.'
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2021, 12:27:35 PM »

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

The 2022 Senate results according to Atlas:

IA
52.3% Abby Finkenauer (D)
46.0% Chuck Grassley (R, inc.)

OH
56.8% Josh Mandel (R)
39.4% Tim Ryan (D)

FL
54.4% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
42.1% Val Demings (D)

AZ
55.2% Mark Kelly (D, inc.)
42.2% Any AZ (R)epublican "lunatic" except AstroNUT slayer Doug Ducey

NC
53.1% Pat McCrory (R)
45.5% Jeff Jackson (D)

NV
50.29% Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc.)
44.55% Literally any Republican

NH
54.2% Chris Sununu (R)
43.8% Maggie Hassan (D, inc.)

PA
53.9% John Fetterman (D)
43.9% Sean Parnell (R)

semi-sarcastic reply
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2021, 12:42:30 PM »

This race after thinking about is safe R, D's spend money in IA, OH and NC, I won't donate to this race

So instead of wasting >$150 million on this Likely R race, they should waste them on a Safe D race? Only donate to IA to take down Randy Feenstra, and even then, the Fink's coattails will probably take care of that.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2021, 11:15:18 AM »

Good video, though I would focused less on the orange buffoon and more address economic issues. Demings for sure is an A-tier candidate and our best shot to bring down Rubio, who's a spineless coward. Her law enforcement background is definitely helpful and makes "Defund the police" fearmongering attacks fall flat.

Anyway, Lean R for now. It's a Dem-midterm and FL is a slightly red leaning state. These are severe obstacles to overcome in a closely divided state. However, if Demings loses by more than 4 pts without major campaign errors, it tells us that candidate quality in FL really doesn't matter much, if anything. It's not a must win pickup, but it would be bittersweet to retire Rubio and likely protect or expand our senate majority.

I get that this entire 'candidate quality' discourse is extremely subjective and volatile and all, but in what universe is Val Demings an A-tier candidate or even a particularly strong recruit? If your main criterion for "strong candidate" is "can energize an already largely energized base without appealing to any center-right/Trump voters/R-trending cohort," then I agree that she’s a strong candidate, but I think we know how this movie ends by now, don’t we?
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MT Treasurer
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2021, 12:43:00 PM »

Bc she's basically the antithesis (or closest) of a Democratic candidate could be to the GOP's talking points (defund the police, socialism, etc.)

Err.... Val Demings is a reliable liberal and literally served as House impeachment manager in Trump's impeachment trial. She’s very easy to paint as some out-of-touch partisan and would have close to zero crossover appeal in a GE. The idea that Republicans won’t be able to paint her as a career politician who embodies "GOP talking points" is ludicrous.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2021, 10:51:52 AM »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.

That may be the case, but even those numbers with Hispanics weren't enough to save Nelson, were they? The problem is still the older white voters everywhere in the state, and I just don't see a path for Dems winning those back.

I really don’t think it is, certainly not in FL. Not sure where wbrocks67 gets his numbers from or if he just makes them up, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Scott and DeSantis did better among 'Latino' voters (with variations in the respective subgroups, obviously) than Trump in 2016.
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