FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[NewYorkExpress]

Tossup.

Rubio's clearly keeping the seat warm in preparation for a Presidential run in 2024, and I'm not sure Florida voters will like that.

[NewYorkExpress]

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's too bad Demings isn't running for GOV. She'd be a way better prospect than Crist or Fried.

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1511705787315462150

Demings probably could win in an open seat race (or against Rubio if Trump were President). She's actually a rather strong candidate.

This set of circumstances, though? She won't win, but this race could be surprisingly close compared to people's expectations.