FL-SEN 2022: Rubio running for re-election
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  FL-SEN 2022: Rubio running for re-election
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Author Topic: FL-SEN 2022: Rubio running for re-election  (Read 11648 times)
Pink Panther
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« Reply #375 on: June 10, 2021, 09:01:39 PM »

Hispanic voters, that are key to victory in Florida, are becoming Republican as we saw recently in McAllen, Texas in a city that has an 85 % Hispanic population in a county that voted 58 % Biden and they elected a Republican mayor. That is mainly because of Hispanics’ opposition to socialism and support to free enterprise and because of the problems caused by the current border crisis. And that's why Hispanic voters will help put Rubio over the top

You're seriously going to unironically use a low turnout (12%) Saturday election in another state, in a part of said state that is infamous for low turnout even in regular elections, as part of a serious argument? Come on, you're better than this.


Meanwhile in actual news:


Good fundraising number, but this is probably another case of Dem donors misplacing their funds again, like they always do.
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Senator-elect Scott🦋
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« Reply #376 on: June 10, 2021, 09:02:02 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2021, 09:09:24 PM by Scott🦋 »

I don't like cops, but that was an admittedly high-energy announcement video (the debate clip did it for me). If that's what it takes to give Democrats a greater-than-zero chance of beating Little Marco, so be it.
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Senator-elect Scott🦋
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« Reply #377 on: June 10, 2021, 09:06:22 PM »

Also, this is another example of Democrats doing something they're not usually known for: not being political idiots and immediately giving up on states where they have a real chance. Even a ~5% Demings loss would shore up voters in competitive House districts.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #378 on: June 10, 2021, 10:56:13 PM »

Likely R. It's not Idaho/Wyoming, but I don't see Rubio losing barring a dead girl/live boy scandal.
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UWS
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« Reply #379 on: June 11, 2021, 04:35:13 AM »

Hispanic voters, that are key to victory in Florida, are becoming Republican as we saw recently in McAllen, Texas in a city that has an 85 % Hispanic population in a county that voted 58 % Biden and they elected a Republican mayor. That is mainly because of Hispanics’ opposition to socialism and support to free enterprise and because of the problems caused by the current border crisis. And that's why Hispanic voters will help put Rubio over the top

You're seriously going to unironically use a low turnout (12%) Saturday election in another state, in a part of said state that is infamous for low turnout even in regular elections, as part of a serious argument? Come on, you're better than this.


Meanwhile in actual news:





Hispanics in Florida are becoming even more Republican than others across the country.

Cuban-Americans, of course, support Rubio. And Venezuelan Americans, for example, are turning Republican due to Trump's handling of the Maduro threat.

https://nacla.org/venezuelan-american-trump-voters

That's why postmortem in Democratic strongholds like Doral, the city with the largest Venezuelan-born population in the country, showed a 41.4 percent swing toward Trump. In fact, Trump eked out a 1.4 percent win in the city in 2020 after having lost by 40 percent to Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she obtained 52 percent of the votes. And that's why Miami-Dade voted Biden by just 6 or 7.

https://www.miamiherald.com/article246978452.html

And money doesn't really matter anymore. Beto O'Rourke outraised Ted Cruz and he lost. Jaime Harrison outraised Lindsey Graham and he failed miserably by losing by 10.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #380 on: June 11, 2021, 04:43:17 AM »

UWS D's aren't winning FL we know, I'd they did it would be a tsunami, it would be 56th seat pickup opportunity, in the best case scenario, D's will only win NC as 53 seats especially without HR 1/4
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #381 on: June 11, 2021, 05:33:13 AM »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #382 on: June 11, 2021, 06:50:55 AM »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.

That may be the case, but even those numbers with Hispanics weren't enough to save Nelson, were they? The problem is still the older white voters everywhere in the state, and I just don't see a path for Dems winning those back.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #383 on: June 11, 2021, 08:31:34 AM »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.
I think 2018 was already some evidence of the increased GOP performance among hispanics in Florida. In exit polls in 2014, Crist won hispanics by 20. In exit polls in 2018, Dems won by 10/11.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/fl/governor/exitpoll/


https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida
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Donerail
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« Reply #384 on: June 11, 2021, 11:29:42 AM »

Hispanic voters, that are key to victory in Florida, are becoming Republican as we saw recently in McAllen, Texas in a city that has an 85 % Hispanic population in a county that voted 58 % Biden and they elected a Republican mayor. That is mainly because of Hispanics’ opposition to socialism and support to free enterprise and because of the problems caused by the current border crisis. And that's why Hispanic voters will help put Rubio over the top

You're seriously going to unironically use a low turnout (12%) Saturday election in another state, in a part of said state that is infamous for low turnout even in regular elections, as part of a serious argument? Come on, you're better than this.

Hispanics in Florida are becoming even more Republican than others across the country.

Cuban-Americans, of course, support Rubio. And Venezuelan Americans, for example, are turning Republican due to Trump's handling of the Maduro threat.

That's why postmortem in Democratic strongholds like Doral, the city with the largest Venezuelan-born population in the country, showed a 41.4 percent swing toward Trump. In fact, Trump eked out a 1.4 percent win in the city in 2020 after having lost by 40 percent to Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she obtained 52 percent of the votes. And that's why Miami-Dade voted Biden by just 6 or 7.

And money doesn't really matter anymore. Beto O'Rourke outraised Ted Cruz and he lost. Jaime Harrison outraised Lindsey Graham and he failed miserably by losing by 10.
Tell me, how many Cubans or Venezuelans live in McAllen, Texas?
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UWS
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« Reply #385 on: June 11, 2021, 12:01:03 PM »

Hispanic voters, that are key to victory in Florida, are becoming Republican as we saw recently in McAllen, Texas in a city that has an 85 % Hispanic population in a county that voted 58 % Biden and they elected a Republican mayor. That is mainly because of Hispanics’ opposition to socialism and support to free enterprise and because of the problems caused by the current border crisis. And that's why Hispanic voters will help put Rubio over the top

You're seriously going to unironically use a low turnout (12%) Saturday election in another state, in a part of said state that is infamous for low turnout even in regular elections, as part of a serious argument? Come on, you're better than this.

Hispanics in Florida are becoming even more Republican than others across the country.

Cuban-Americans, of course, support Rubio. And Venezuelan Americans, for example, are turning Republican due to Trump's handling of the Maduro threat.

That's why postmortem in Democratic strongholds like Doral, the city with the largest Venezuelan-born population in the country, showed a 41.4 percent swing toward Trump. In fact, Trump eked out a 1.4 percent win in the city in 2020 after having lost by 40 percent to Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she obtained 52 percent of the votes. And that's why Miami-Dade voted Biden by just 6 or 7.

And money doesn't really matter anymore. Beto O'Rourke outraised Ted Cruz and he lost. Jaime Harrison outraised Lindsey Graham and he failed miserably by losing by 10.
Tell me, how many Cubans or Venezuelans live in McAllen, Texas?

If even Hispanics outside Florida who usually are more liberal than Cubans and Hispanics elected a Republican Mayor, then you can realize that Cubans and Venezuelan Americans will vote more to the right of these Hispanics in Southern Texas as they usually do.
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2016
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« Reply #386 on: June 11, 2021, 12:07:43 PM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!
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Donerail
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« Reply #387 on: June 11, 2021, 01:35:24 PM »

Tell me, how many Cubans or Venezuelans live in McAllen, Texas?

If even Hispanics outside Florida who usually are more liberal than Cubans and Hispanics elected a Republican Mayor, then you can realize that Cubans and Venezuelan Americans will vote more to the right of these Hispanics in Southern Texas as they usually do.
There is no reason to believe that any movement among Mexicans will be mirrored exactly among Cubans. Why on earth would you believe those two things are related?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #388 on: June 12, 2021, 09:01:20 AM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #389 on: June 12, 2021, 09:32:37 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 09:36:01 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

FL is our 56 th seat after WI, PA, GA, NC, OH, IA and FL state pickup opportunity anyways way down on the list of pickups, as of now Biden is exactly at 52 percent Approvals, if the Election were held today Rs would narrowly win the H while D's keep a 303 map in the S and Govs but the Election isn't today it's 500 days from now

It does depend on the H and how much split voting it does in red wall states vs a 303 map in the Senate and Gov races but it's still possible D's even on a 303 S and Gov map can hold the H
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patzer
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« Reply #390 on: June 12, 2021, 09:41:18 AM »

The ideal candidate for the Dems would probably be someone who’s moderate, Hispanic, and staunchly anticommunist. Wonder if there’s anyone like that.
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DTC
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« Reply #391 on: June 12, 2021, 09:51:17 AM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that

This analysis is so superficial
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The Swayze Train
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« Reply #392 on: June 12, 2021, 10:23:36 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 11:46:08 AM by 215 till I die »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.
The warning signs were already showing by 2018, Scott only garnered 18k fewer votes in M-D than Trump did the first time while Nelson lost almost 150k Clinton 2016 votes. Compare with Crist/Scott seeing pretty much a wash in drop-off from Obama/Romney 2012 to the 2014 gov race. How does the FLDP find a way to make up lost ground with a demographic the GOP has consistently targeted under Trump?

For all the discussion of Florida trending red due to GOP gains with conservative Latinos, an equally important factor is the absolute collapse of the Democratic Party in the Big Bend and I-75 corridor since 2012. Do not let the 3rd-largest population in the nation fool you, FL has more than its share of rural whites. Florida's retirement communities powered Scott to re-election and in 2018 enabled him to unseat Nelson as much as improvement in South FL.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #393 on: June 12, 2021, 10:51:52 AM »

I'm not saying Hispanics in Florida are not *not* becoming more Republican, but I think I'd wait at least one more cycle on that data point before saying it was common knowledge. 2020 election was weird, and Hispanics/Latinos seem to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt. Not to mention, that demo got *more* Democratic from 2016 to 2018.

That may be the case, but even those numbers with Hispanics weren't enough to save Nelson, were they? The problem is still the older white voters everywhere in the state, and I just don't see a path for Dems winning those back.

I really don’t think it is, certainly not in FL. Not sure where wbrocks67 gets his numbers from or if he just makes them up, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Scott and DeSantis did better among 'Latino' voters (with variations in the respective subgroups, obviously) than Trump in 2016.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #394 on: June 12, 2021, 11:23:40 AM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 11:31:44 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Grayson internal polling has Rubio up 52/48% is a DONE DEAL RUBIO AND DeSantis would win 52/48% just like Whitmer and Hassan will win on a Neutral Environment 52/48%

wbrooks along with Landslide Lyndon said Barb Bollier was gonna win KS Sen, I wouldn't take his advice, she got slaughtered like Bullock and let's not forget wbrooks and HEGAR either. Too many UNDECIDED. They all lost miserably😖😖😖

Biden is exactly at 52%Approvaks in a Neutral Environment it will be a 304 EC map D's picking up ME 2 if the EC map was duplicated in 2024 against Trump or DeSantis

52/48 SEN and the Ds can keep the H with split voting in House districts and red stayes

If I had to guess D's 218/217 H 52/48 S with GA going to a Runoff and 25/25 Govs Rs picking up KS and D's winning NH and MA Govs around 304 blue wall and D's finally passing DC statehood after 2022
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #395 on: June 12, 2021, 03:12:04 PM »

Lean/Likely R
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Beet
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« Reply #396 on: June 12, 2021, 03:41:19 PM »

Dems need a Latino in Florida, especially against a Rubio, but they never run one. Likely R.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #397 on: June 12, 2021, 03:51:25 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 03:56:55 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

This st is wave insurence we won't know about it til next yr anyways, not this yr, the Election is a long was from now

I want Val to win, and MT Treasurer keep thinking every state is gonna vote the same way as Prez Election is inaccurate, Whitmer is Vulnerable, so is the PA Gov race and Hassan.
We have some wave insurence states in AZ, KS and MA Gov that can vote D.

Midterms are different than Prez Elections, partisan trends don't always play out but Fried is a better candidate than Crist

Rs are -9 on Generic ballot and Sununu won by 7 pts in 2018 and we won AZ and OH Sen, we don't know how the races will play out

I would love to see us winning OH, FL, IA, AK and NC are the same time MI, OR, and PA Gov goes R that would be a cool map

It would be bad news for Hassan and Whitmer though

Sununu is 7 pts ahead like Gov race and shows no signs of weakness
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #398 on: June 12, 2021, 06:09:18 PM »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that

This analysis is so superficial

how is it superficial? what i'm saying is just like Obama getting record black turnout in 2008. when voters see a candidate in themselves, who has never done it before, they are usually more often to feel excited about that candidate. Demings would be a history making candidate in FL, so why wouldn't she excite at least a chunk of black voters?
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Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #399 on: June 12, 2021, 06:29:38 PM »
« Edited: June 12, 2021, 06:34:33 PM by Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

UWS,
Biden lost Florida not because of the Hispanics. He lost it because African-Americans in South Florida did not turn out in the Numbers Democrats expected.

Demings doesn't create a huge amount of enthusiasm among AA in FL.

They needed someone like Obama or Gillum again!

She would be the first black female senator from FL, and first black senator from FL, correct? So I don't believe that

This analysis is so superficial

how is it superficial? what i'm saying is just like Obama getting record black turnout in 2008. when voters see a candidate in themselves, who has never done it before, they are usually more often to feel excited about that candidate. Demings would be a history making candidate in FL, so why wouldn't she excite at least a chunk of black voters?

Trump improved his showing among Florida’s AAs in 2020 despite Kamala Harris.

And also Demings’ record of overseeing police brutality in Orlando will not be well perceived among AAs and I guess it’s one of the reasons why Biden didn’t select her in 2020.
Trump had incumbency and Harris wasn't top of ticket.

Also, the only groups of AAs whose enthusiasm levels would be significantly lowered by her Orlando record are the evidently more extreme left prog types. Most blacks won't care or they would approve; and even if they did care it won't alter anything else about how they act.
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