FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[South Dakota Democrat]

There’s no harm in running a good candidate here and I’ll never understand why Atlas seems to think it’s bad strategy to run strong candidates in as many races as possible.  If nothing else, it tends to boost down-ballot base turnout and gives good wave/scandal insurance.

If Atlas had their way, there would be no Democrats running in any Lean/Tossup races during a Democratic midterm.

That isn't the Point! The Point is the "Atlas Double Standards". John James, who ran two good Senate Campaigns, overperforming in both Election has been dubbed as "Pennerial Loser" while Charlie Cirst who lost Statewide as a Republican, Independent and Democrat is being called the "Big Hero" who gets Demings over the Finish Line.

Both Florida Races won't be close. Rubio is likely overperforming DeSantis a bit.
FL-SEN Rubio 8-11 Points
FL-GOV DeSantis 5-7 Points

Who is this Charlie Cirst of whom you speak?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Rubio will win by 12+, if not 15+

[Sir Mohamed]

Rubio will win by 12+, if not 15+

That's too pessimistic, I'd argue. I rated the race Likely R before Demings running and think it's more Lean R for now. He'll win in all likelyhood, but Demings is a good candidate. She can make it competitive if she runs a good campaign and learns from the mistakes Dems did in recent FL races.

Early prediction would be Rubio +5, which could get even closer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Crist can't cut into a 10 DeSantis lead, I highly doubt that Val Deming's can beat Rubio

[Turtlebro735]

I think the DSCC will clear the field for Demings.

[SnowLabrador]

I think the DSCC will clear the field for Demings.

They had better. I hate Murphy; she voted to allow Trump to attack Iran.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is gonna win, anyways, by supporting the Jan 6th Commission, but Crist can beat DeSantis,  DeSantis is a Trump copy cat

Cubans and Latinos like Crist due to speaking Spanish, in these Red insurence seats, states, like OH and FL D's aren't gonna sweep the Gov and Senate, it's gonna be split and Crist is wealthy and can finance his whole campaign against DeSantis

Guilliam was leading DeSANTIS by six with a mnth left and lost, Crist can beat DeSantis he is down by six with 500 days left

[ElectionsGuy]

Rubio will win by 12+, if not 15+

It's still Florida, not Iowa.

[SnowLabrador]

Rubio will win by 12+, if not 15+

It's still Florida, not Iowa.

Rubio has a lot more crossover appeal than Joni Ernst, and she won by well over six points in 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rubio will win by 12+, if not 15+

It's still Florida, not Iowa.

Rubio has a lot more crossover appeal than Joni Ernst, and she won by well over six points in 2020.

He does, he'll probably win by a bit more than her. My point is that a state like Iowa has quite a bit more potential for double-digit victories. Florida is quite a bit more consistent, "stiff" if you will.

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am gonna be bold, since Rs are in trouble in OH, Rubio wins due to support of Commission on Jan 6th and Cubans for Crist defeat DeSantis

[Brittain33]

I think the DSCC will clear the field for Demings.

What can they offer Murphy when she’s already announced her retirement and wouldn’t have a seat to run in anyway?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is not losing he is Cuban, but DeSantis can lose, FL elected Crist Gov already, Gillium was up six pts the same as DeSantis and he lost, and DeSantis is really up six with 500days. Also, DeSantis doesn't have the relationship with non Cuban Latinos and Afro Americans that Scott had.

That's why he almost lost to Scott, in split voting Rubio would win and Crist would win, Crist speaks Espanol Deming's and Murphy doesn't

I am hoping split voting occurs in OH between Renacci and Ryan, another poll showed weakness in OH for Rs, but Whaley is a female and OH and PA and FL and VA and CO are the only states to not vote for Female Sen or Gov and voted down Hillary in 2016 except for VA and CO

That's another reason why Hillary lost swing state PA

[MT Treasurer]

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

The 2022 Senate results according to Atlas:

IA
52.3% Abby Finkenauer (D)
46.0% Chuck Grassley (R, inc.)

OH
56.8% Josh Mandel (R)
39.4% Tim Ryan (D)

FL
54.4% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
42.1% Val Demings (D)

AZ
55.2% Mark Kelly (D, inc.)
42.2% Any AZ (R)epublican "lunatic" except AstroNUT slayer Doug Ducey

NC
53.1% Pat McCrory (R)
45.5% Jeff Jackson (D)

NV
50.29% Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc.)
44.55% Literally any Republican

NH
54.2% Chris Sununu (R)
43.8% Maggie Hassan (D, inc.)

PA
53.9% John Fetterman (D)
43.9% Sean Parnell (R)

semi-sarcastic reply

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

The 2022 Senate results according to Atlas:

IA
52.3% Abby Finkenauer (D)
46.0% Chuck Grassley (R, inc.)

OH
56.8% Josh Mandel (R)
39.4% Tim Ryan (D)

FL
54.4% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
42.1% Val Demings (D)

AZ
55.2% Mark Kelly (D, inc.)
42.2% Any AZ (R)epublican "lunatic" except AstroNUT slayer Doug Ducey

NC
53.1% Pat McCrory (R)
45.5% Jeff Jackson (D)

NV
50.29% Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc.)
44.55% Literally any Republican

NH
54.2% Chris Sununu (R)
43.8% Maggie Hassan (D, inc.)

semi-sarcastic reply

You really think Ryan is gonna lose by double digits and Josh Mandel lost by six points to Brown and we only won the PVI by 4.0 in 2012, NO

Ryan is much better as a candidate, we would win OH before IA, due to three C's have Afro American voters in OH

Sununu isn't winning in NH unless Rs win the PVI and they haven't won since 2014

I have a 54/46 Senate the same as Biden current approvals and passing Reparations and DC Statehood and Immigration reform

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Crist beats DeSantis, which is plausible, Graham will come out of Cabinet is running against Scott be sure of that

[Turtlebro735]

I think the DSCC will clear the field for Demings.

What can they offer Murphy when she’s already announced her retirement and wouldn’t have a seat to run in anyway?

Let one of them be the frontrunner against Scott for 2024.

[S019]

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

The 2022 Senate results according to Atlas:

IA
52.3% Abby Finkenauer (D)
46.0% Chuck Grassley (R, inc.)

OH
56.8% Josh Mandel (R)
39.4% Tim Ryan (D)

FL
54.4% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
42.1% Val Demings (D)

AZ
55.2% Mark Kelly (D, inc.)
42.2% Any AZ (R)epublican "lunatic" except AstroNUT slayer Doug Ducey

NC
53.1% Pat McCrory (R)
45.5% Jeff Jackson (D)

NV
50.29% Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc.)
44.55% Literally any Republican

NH
54.2% Chris Sununu (R)
43.8% Maggie Hassan (D, inc.)

semi-sarcastic reply

You really think Ryan is gonna lose by double digits and Josh Mandel lost by six points to Brown and we only won the PVI by 4.0 in 2012, NO

Ryan is much better as a candidate, we would win OH before IA, due to three C's have Afro American voters in OH

Sununu isn't winning in NH unless Rs win the PVI and they haven't won since 2014

I have a 54/46 Senate the same as Biden current approvals and passing Reparations and DC Statehood and Immigration reform

Ryan is screwed lol. I consider him losing by less than 10 pts to be an accomplishment. OH is a red state now and it’ll become even redder as the Appalachia hicks continue to trend Republican. Also 2014 was the last midterm under a Democratic president. So yes, it is a logical assumption that 2022 will be closer to the GCB of 2014 than 2020. Also PVI is a partisan index used by Cook, it is horribly out of date and doesn’t really apply here. Anyways, why am I wasting my time responding to you.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Rubio will win. I, of course, hope that the Dems run Debbie Wasserman Schultz. A 70-30 win would be nice.

But if the D's want to keep it close, they can try and hope Rubio gets a primary challenge for not being conservative enough, and then run Murphy or take someone off the bench since they won't win anyway (Nelson or Graham).

[Calthrina950]

Rubio will win. I, of course, hope that the Dems run Debbie Wasserman Schultz. A 70-30 win would be nice.

But if the D's want to keep it close, they can try and hope Rubio gets a primary challenge for not being conservative enough, and then run Murphy or take someone off the bench since they won't win anyway (Nelson or Graham).

Ironically enough, this kind of result did happen in Florida for a Republican Senator-back in 1994, when Connie Mack defeated Hillary Clinton's younger brother, Hugh Rodham, 70-30%, and won every single county:

Obviously, a result like this would be impossible to duplicate in today's polarized environment. Rubio will more than likely win by around high single digits. An 8% margin of victory for him, like that which he obtained in 2016, is very plausible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 52/48 D Senate and GA is going to a Runoff, anyways

WI, PA, NH will go D while we will hold out hope Warnock eeks out a victory

[Roll Roons]

Murphy WON'T run against Marco after all: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/24/stephanie-murphy-marco-rubio-senate-490563

I guess they're putting all their weight behind Demings. Maybe Murphy will run in 2024?

[JMT]

Murphy WON'T run against Marco after all: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/24/stephanie-murphy-marco-rubio-senate-490563

Maybe they're saving her for 2024?

Sounds like Democrats will be uniting behind Val Demings for 2022. I hope Murphy runs against Rick Scott in 2024. She seemed to hint at a 2024 Senate run in a video announcing her decision:

https://twitter.com/smurphycongress/status/1396875939091558400?s=21

[Meatball Ron]

Murphy WON'T run against Marco after all: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/24/stephanie-murphy-marco-rubio-senate-490563

Maybe they're saving her for 2024?

Sounds like Democrats will be uniting behind Val Demings for 2022. I hope Murphy runs against Rick Scott in 2024. She seemed to hint at a 2024 Senate run in a video announcing her decision:

Interesting that she didn't announce her reelection plans - just that she plans to spend '22 helping rebuild the party. I assume she's waiting to see what her district will look like, but hopefully she runs for House this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race after thinking about is safe R, D's spend money in IA, OH and NC, I won't donate to this race