FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is only 6 pts ahead of Crist that isn't a landslide and so was Rubio was over his opponent.

DeSabtis Approvals are no where near where DeWine or Biden Approvals are at 59 percent they are barely 51

Polls are meaningless until 2022 anyways not 2021 but I endorse Crist and Murphy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's get NC, OH, IA, MO, FL Senate races they get 56 votes and PR and DC Statehood enacted that 60 votes to 44, Enough to pass anything, it's a long way to Election day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/18/demings-running-for-senate-rubio-489137

Val Deming's to run for Senate instead of Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Underestimate Crist and Val Deming's if you want, we don't know how a blue wave will develop in 500 days D's didn't win 33H seats in 2017, they won them in 2018 with ads

We need more Afro Americans in Senate especially when H Jefferies is gonna be Speaker and DC Statehood is gonna be passed once we get 53 votes

FL, OH, NC have a high concentration of Jews, Blks, Arabs, and Females that can vote D, the Election isn't over, Mccarthy isn't Speaker yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Afro Americans are jumping into these races they see that DC Statehood is inevitable with 52 or 53 votes and Hakeem JEFFERIES is gonna be Speaker

Lol, Crist has the 💰 money and resources to mount a completetive campaign against DeSantis, whom is a polarizing figure due to his closeness to Trump

We haven't had any polls from NC, FL or OH Senate races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing to see here. Likely R. Please don't waste a ton of money on this @ DSCC

Our Campaign for Senate is totally dependant on Charlie Crist and if he can gain momentum in Gov race,  if Elections were decided a yr before the Election Scott Brown would be Senator, He was also leading Shaheen just like Sununu is leading Hassan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing to see here. Likely R. Please don't waste a ton of money on this @ DSCC

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Nobody is making you donate, but D's need some wave insurence states due to fact Tester is pulling a Sinema and Manchin and against Filibuster reform, we may need 53 not 52 votes in order to pass DC Statehood,
 
We are so close to DC Statehood and it should be passed this term but Manchin wants to make it a Constitutional Amendment

I have 2016 on ignore, he doesn't know anything about blue waves, like Scott said ignore him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Democrat is going to beat Rubio.

Ha, you understimate the power of Crist, obviously the D's campaign in FL depends on Charlie Crist he is very wealthy and speaks Espanol, he almost beat Rick Scott in an R plus 5 Environment, in 2014

Afro Americans despises DeSsntis, Crist and Murphy or Val Deming's are gonna get the share of the vote of Andrew Gillium whom almost won, he lost by .5

Everyone thinks that DeSantis won by a landslide in 2018 but he didnt

I have been going back and forth on OH, NC and FL but an Election isn't over yet, if an Election is decided a yr prior, Scott Brown would have beaten Shaheen, that's why Hassan has a chance still

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What a waste. I really liked Demmings.

This...she should have waited to oust Scott in a presidential year, Scott is more vulnerable than Rubio.

Rubio will win by 5-9 points, it is Lean R for now....could be interesting

I'm not fully convinced Scott is a much easier target, given his electoral history. There's a good chance Voldemort succeeds again, even if Biden or Harris win the presidential election nationwide.

Sir Mohammed doesn't believe in blue waves we didn't win 33H seats in 2017, I keep saying this over and over again, we won them on ADS IN FALL OF 2018

We are still in 2021/ not 2022, a yr prior to Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thank god Demings decided to go the JKIII route and nip a potentially promisung career in the bud with an impossible senate campaign, I'll always be grateful for that

Underestimate Charlie Crist if you want obviously DeSantis isn't gonna win by 10 points that an R pollster Chamber of Commerce said he was gonna win by, it's a Key Race just like OH and NC, a blue wave doesn't develop a yr prior to Election, otherwise Scott Brown would have beaten Shaheen in 2014, and he lost in An R plus 5 Environment, that's why Hassan has a chance in a Biden majority Prez. We didn't win 33H seats in 2017 we won them on ADS in 2018, anything can happen next yr

It's a tag team between Val DeMings or Murphy and CRIST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know at least he isn't on ignore like 2016, 2016 disappeared and said he would never return and he's back

Everyione says to ignore 2016 and SN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Enthusiastically endorsed!

With that being said, I'm not that optimistic about her or any Democrat being able to knock off Little Marco, altough he would fully deserve a loss. It most likely clears the Democratic field though. And Demings is one of the best candidates, having risen to national prominence and her background in law enforcement may actually help. I hope she'll be able to target Hispanic voters and turn out the black community.

Biden is leading by double digits against Trump have faith, if that's the case then OH, IA, NC and FL is winnable.

D's must expand the map in order to keep the H.

As I said earlier Rs don't have a monopoly on OH, NC and FL with Minorities and Females vote

I donate to wave insurence seats not seats that we are poised to win anyways, but not nothing big, like I did in past, small donations, I would be silly to do such and the Govt gave 300 bonuses to all the people on Unemployment and left the rest of out.

I donated to Joe Kennedy, Bullock


Rs should be careful about wave insurence and Biden is at 59% and Kelly is up by 10 in AZ and we won KS Gov and KY Gov it's not impossible

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.

An R wave and Rs have not taking the lead on the Generic ballot, it's a Neutral Environment right now, the D's would replicate the 306 EC map WI, MI, PA, NH, would go D and GA would go to a Runoff

It would be a 51/49 Senate while GA goes to a Runoff and we would win WI, MI and PA Gov, it's only an R wave if Biden becomes a 40% Prez, he's a Majority Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

An R wave means cracking the blue wall and Sununu leads Hassan but Scott Brown 2014 was in a similar situation as Sununu and he lost in an R wave Against Shaheen, Hassan will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R, no matter what. Why do Florida House Democrats keep throwing away their congressional careers and incumbency for Sisyphean attempts to get elected statewide in this wasteland?

JAMES CARVILLE SAID CONTEST EVERY SEAT, HE SAID DONY GIVE Rs a shoe in for Reelection and anything can happen even in a Biden Midterm

Everyone thought Charlie Baker was safe and he barely leads Maura Healey.

Anything can happen in 500 days, if D's have every safe R a free pass we would lose alot more than what we already have and our H races are in 50 states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Either one if they lose have Biden as Prez and can take on an ambassadorship or run against Scott in 2024/ Crist and Val Deming's aren't throwing away their careers and DeSantis isn't winning by 10 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Crist can't cut into a 10 DeSantis lead, I highly doubt that Val Deming's can beat Rubio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is gonna win, anyways, by supporting the Jan 6th Commission, but Crist can beat DeSantis,  DeSantis is a Trump copy cat

Cubans and Latinos like Crist due to speaking Spanish, in these Red insurence seats, states, like OH and FL D's aren't gonna sweep the Gov and Senate, it's gonna be split and Crist is wealthy and can finance his whole campaign against DeSantis

Guilliam was leading DeSANTIS by six with a mnth left and lost, Crist can beat DeSantis he is down by six with 500 days left

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am gonna be bold, since Rs are in trouble in OH, Rubio wins due to support of Commission on Jan 6th and Cubans for Crist defeat DeSantis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is not losing he is Cuban, but DeSantis can lose, FL elected Crist Gov already, Gillium was up six pts the same as DeSantis and he lost, and DeSantis is really up six with 500days. Also, DeSantis doesn't have the relationship with non Cuban Latinos and Afro Americans that Scott had.

That's why he almost lost to Scott, in split voting Rubio would win and Crist would win, Crist speaks Espanol Deming's and Murphy doesn't

I am hoping split voting occurs in OH between Renacci and Ryan, another poll showed weakness in OH for Rs, but Whaley is a female and OH and PA and FL and VA and CO are the only states to not vote for Female Sen or Gov and voted down Hillary in 2016 except for VA and CO

That's another reason why Hillary lost swing state PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's not think Rubio is going to win by double digits and also that Warnock is "obviously favored" in Georgia or that Dems are favored to pick up Pennsylvania, or that Nevada is "titanium Tilt D" no matter what. That's not a realistic combination of events, but it's a narrative that I see a lot of.

The 2022 Senate results according to Atlas:

IA
52.3% Abby Finkenauer (D)
46.0% Chuck Grassley (R, inc.)

OH
56.8% Josh Mandel (R)
39.4% Tim Ryan (D)

FL
54.4% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
42.1% Val Demings (D)

AZ
55.2% Mark Kelly (D, inc.)
42.2% Any AZ (R)epublican "lunatic" except AstroNUT slayer Doug Ducey

NC
53.1% Pat McCrory (R)
45.5% Jeff Jackson (D)

NV
50.29% Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc.)
44.55% Literally any Republican

NH
54.2% Chris Sununu (R)
43.8% Maggie Hassan (D, inc.)

semi-sarcastic reply

You really think Ryan is gonna lose by double digits and Josh Mandel lost by six points to Brown and we only won the PVI by 4.0 in 2012, NO

Ryan is much better as a candidate, we would win OH before IA, due to three C's have Afro American voters in OH

Sununu isn't winning in NH unless Rs win the PVI and they haven't won since 2014

I have a 54/46 Senate the same as Biden current approvals and passing Reparations and DC Statehood and Immigration reform

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Crist beats DeSantis, which is plausible, Graham will come out of Cabinet is running against Scott be sure of that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 52/48 D Senate and GA is going to a Runoff, anyways

WI, PA, NH will go D while we will hold out hope Warnock eeks out a victory

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race after thinking about is safe R, D's spend money in IA, OH and NC, I won't donate to this race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race after thinking about is safe R, D's spend money in IA, OH and NC, I won't donate to this race

So instead of wasting >$150 million on this Likely R race, they should waste them on a Safe D race? Only donate to IA to take down Randy Feenstra, and even then, the Fink's coattails will probably take care of that.

WI, PA, NH and GA are likely D until they start giving us polls in OH, NC and IA and FL

Rs are getting rid of Unemployment, voter suppression and pro second amendment rights in all the red leaning battleground state