FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here
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President Johnson
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« Reply #250 on: May 18, 2021, 01:10:51 PM »

Enthusiastically endorsed!

With that being said, I'm not that optimistic about her or any Democrat being able to knock off Little Marco, altough he would fully deserve a loss. It most likely clears the Democratic field though. And Demings is one of the best candidates, having risen to national prominence and her background in law enforcement may actually help. I hope she'll be able to target Hispanic voters and turn out the black community.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #251 on: May 18, 2021, 02:05:08 PM »

Quote
Unlike Gillum, one of the most progressive candidates ever nominated by the state party for governor, Demings is more moderate in tone and policy, James said, “so Republicans can’t call her a socialist.”

Lol.

Actual party strategists who unironically believe that a candidate's actual ideology matters more than strategic branding & identity-based appeals (of which the 'socialist' line of attack is clearly one, and a rather ineffectual at that) is my favorite election 'thing.'
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UWS
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« Reply #252 on: May 18, 2021, 04:11:50 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 04:15:59 PM by UWS »


Ha, you understimate the power of Crist, obviously the D's campaign in FL depends on Charlie Crist he is very wealthy and speaks Espanol, he almost beat Rick Scott in an R plus 5 Environment, in 2014

Afro Americans despises DeSsntis, Crist and Murphy or Val Deming's are gonna get the share of the vote of Andrew Gillium whom almost won, he lost by .5

Everyone thinks that DeSantis won by a landslide in 2018 but he didnt

I have been going back and forth on OH, NC and FL but an Election isn't over yet, if an Election is decided a yr prior, Scott Brown would have beaten Shaheen, that's why Hassan has a chance still

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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #253 on: May 18, 2021, 04:26:26 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 04:33:02 PM by "?" »

There’s no harm in running a good candidate here and I’ll never understand why Atlas seems to think it’s bad strategy to run strong candidates in as many races as possible.  If nothing else, it tends to boost down-ballot base turnout and gives good wave/scandal insurance.

If Atlas had their way, there would be no Democrats running in any Lean/Tossup races during a Democratic midterm.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #254 on: May 18, 2021, 04:42:36 PM »

There’s no harm in running a good candidate here and I’ll never understand why Atlas seems to think it’s bad strategy to run strong candidates in as many races as possible.  If nothing else, it tends to boost down-ballot base turnout and gives good wave/scandal insurance.

If Atlas had their way, there would be no Democrats running in any Lean/Tossup races during a Democratic midterm.
That isn't the Point! The Point is the "Atlas Double Standards". John James, who ran two good Senate Campaigns, overperforming in both Election has been dubbed as "Pennerial Loser" while Charlie Cirst who lost Statewide as a Republican, Independent and Democrat is being called the "Big Hero" who gets Demings over the Finish Line.

Both Florida Races won't be close. Rubio is likely overperforming DeSantis a bit.
FL-SEN Rubio 8-11 Points
FL-GOV DeSantis 5-7 Points
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UWS
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« Reply #255 on: May 18, 2021, 04:53:38 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 05:31:50 PM by UWS »

Thank god Demings decided to go the JKIII route and nip a potentially promisung career in the bud with an impossible senate campaign, I'll always be grateful for that

Underestimate Charlie Crist if you want obviously DeSantis isn't gonna win by 10 points that an R pollster Chamber of Commerce said he was gonna win by, it's a Key Race just like OH and NC, a blue wave doesn't develop a yr prior to Election, otherwise Scott Brown would have beaten Shaheen in 2014, and he lost in An R plus 5 Environment, that's why Hassan has a chance in a Biden majority Prez. We didn't win 33H seats in 2017 we won them on ADS in 2018, anything can happen next yr

It's a tag team between Val DeMings or Murphy and CRIST

With Demings running, we have a chance at beating Murphy in the Democratic primary. They are both from central Florida, thus splitting their constituents there, thus making the primary a mess for the Dems. With Demings as the nominee, she will be exposed as what she is : a socialist who was selected by Nancy Pelosi to serve as an impeachment manager in Trump’s senate trial and thus Rubio wins by high-single digits to low high digits.

If Joe Biden couldn’t win Florida (where he did about as bad as John Kerry did) how can we expect Crist to do so? I got to remind people that it was under Crist’s governorship that Florida was one of only two states along with Maryland to see an increase of unemployment in August 2010, reaching 11.7 % (which was even higher than Ted Strickland’s Ohio that was 48th in the nation in terms of job creation) compared to 9.6 % at the national level. The people of Florida will not let Charlie Crist fail them again by costing their jobs through the promotion of a socialist agenda, higher taxes and regulations and big government.
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Donerail
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« Reply #256 on: May 18, 2021, 05:24:48 PM »

Every one of your posts is the exact same format: "This Democrat is DOOMED because Republicans will expose their hidden scandalous past, which you can read about in the biography section of their wikipedia page." Please get some new material.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #257 on: May 18, 2021, 05:29:39 PM »

I know at least he isn't on ignore like 2016, 2016 disappeared and said he would never return and he's back

Everyione says to ignore 2016 and SN
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #258 on: May 18, 2021, 05:37:57 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 05:46:27 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

Enthusiastically endorsed!

With that being said, I'm not that optimistic about her or any Democrat being able to knock off Little Marco, altough he would fully deserve a loss. It most likely clears the Democratic field though. And Demings is one of the best candidates, having risen to national prominence and her background in law enforcement may actually help. I hope she'll be able to target Hispanic voters and turn out the black community.

Biden is leading by double digits against Trump have faith, if that's the case then OH, IA, NC and FL is winnable.

D's must expand the map in order to keep the H.

As I said earlier Rs don't have a monopoly on OH, NC and FL with Minorities and Females vote

I donate to wave insurence seats not seats that we are poised to win anyways, but not nothing big, like I did in past, small donations, I would be silly to do such and the Govt gave 300 bonuses to all the people on Unemployment and left the rest of out.

I donated to Joe Kennedy, Bullock


Rs should be careful about wave insurence and Biden is at 59% and Kelly is up by 10 in AZ and we won KS Gov and KY Gov it's not impossible
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #259 on: May 18, 2021, 06:11:46 PM »

The notion of a Democratic Wave in 2022 is blatantly ridiculous when every other measure says that won't be the case. Democrats would need a D+8 Wave in 2022 to flip Florida from Red to Blue.

And Crist would not be able to brooker Deals with the Republican-controlled State Legislature. Secondly every Executive Order would likely be struck down by the Conservative Florida State Supreme Court.
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UWS
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« Reply #260 on: May 18, 2021, 06:16:14 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 06:21:29 PM by UWS »

Enthusiastically endorsed!

With that being said, I'm not that optimistic about her or any Democrat being able to knock off Little Marco, altough he would fully deserve a loss. It most likely clears the Democratic field though. And Demings is one of the best candidates, having risen to national prominence and her background in law enforcement may actually help. I hope she'll be able to target Hispanic voters and turn out the black community.

Biden is leading by double digits against Trump have faith, if that's the case then OH, IA, NC and FL is winnable.

D's must expand the map in order to keep the H.

As I said earlier Rs don't have a monopoly on OH, NC and FL with Minorities and Females vote

I donate to wave insurence seats not seats that we are poised to win anyways, but not nothing big, like I did in past, small donations, I would be silly to do such and the Govt gave 300 bonuses to all the people on Unemployment and left the rest of out.

I donated to Joe Kennedy, Bullock


Rs should be careful about wave insurence and Biden is at 59% and Kelly is up by 10 in AZ and we won KS Gov and KY Gov it's not impossible

Murphy’s path to her party’s nomination has gotten harder with Demings running as they will be disputing the same constituents in center Florida and her moderate positions on immigration (as she supported Kate’s Law and once supported reporting illegal immigrants to ICE until she flip-flopped on that issue) and Iran (she voted against limiting Trump’s military power against Iran) will cost her the nomination. Murphy will also be buried in the primary by the $$$$$ that Aramis Ayala earned from donations from George Soros who backed Ayala who will likely be helped again by a network of liberal donors. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Murphy arrives third instead of second in the primary.

And as I mentioned above, it was under Charlie Crist’s governorship that Florida reached one of its highest unemployment rates in that state’s history and therefore has proven himself to be incompetent in managing Florida’s economy and Floridians will not repeat the same mistake by rehiring Crist. He also has a record of changing his positions issue after issue and neither John Kerry nor Mitt Romney (the two most famous flip-floppers in political history) has succeeded in winning Florida.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLUR

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/andrewkaczynski/there-is-almost-nothing-charlie-crist-hasnt-flip-flopped-on

So stop acting as if Florida was Massachusetts.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #261 on: May 18, 2021, 06:17:31 PM »

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #262 on: May 18, 2021, 06:20:19 PM »

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.


FL Senate and Governor 2022 are Likely R at best for dems. Let's be real here
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #263 on: May 18, 2021, 06:21:15 PM »

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.

An R wave and Rs have not taking the lead on the Generic ballot, it's a Neutral Environment right now, the D's would replicate the 306 EC map WI, MI, PA, NH, would go D and GA would go to a Runoff

It would be a 51/49 Senate while GA goes to a Runoff and we would win WI, MI and PA Gov, it's only an R wave if Biden becomes a 40% Prez, he's a Majority Prez
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« Reply #264 on: May 18, 2021, 06:22:20 PM »

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.
2002 was not an R-Wave, more of a Republican ripple. I mean you had Democratic Governors like Janet Napolitano, Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebelius, Brad Henry, etc. elected.

Rubio would need to botch this up pretty bad to lose it!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #265 on: May 18, 2021, 06:24:10 PM »

Demings is the second weakest of the Congressional bench who could run here (after Wasserman Schultz), but other than those who are rabidly against cops, she should unite the Democratic base (and even then, those people will vote for her over Rubio in November).

I'd put this as Lean R at the moment, and it could go to either tossup or Likely R, depending on how the cycle shakes out.

While this likely will be an R wave, even R waves have surprising results. Remember, Mark Pryor's victory in Arkansas in 2002 was also in the middle of what was essentially an R wave.

An R wave and Rs have not taking the lead on the Generic ballot, it's a Neutral Environment right now, the D's would replicate the 306 EC map WI, MI, PA, NH, would go D and GA would go to a Runoff

It would be a 51/49 Senate while GA goes to a Runoff and we would win WI, MI and PA Gov, it's only an R wave if Biden becomes a 40% Prez, he's a Majority Prez
A neutral Environment means Republicans hold both Florida Seats!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #266 on: May 18, 2021, 06:30:14 PM »

An R wave means cracking the blue wall and Sununu leads Hassan but Scott Brown 2014 was in a similar situation as Sununu and he lost in an R wave Against Shaheen, Hassan will win
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #267 on: May 18, 2021, 06:54:20 PM »

Safe R, no matter what. Why do Florida House Democrats keep throwing away their congressional careers and incumbency for Sisyphean attempts to get elected statewide in this wasteland?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #268 on: May 18, 2021, 07:01:35 PM »

Safe R, no matter what. Why do Florida House Democrats keep throwing away their congressional careers and incumbency for Sisyphean attempts to get elected statewide in this wasteland?


JAMES CARVILLE SAID CONTEST EVERY SEAT, HE SAID DONY GIVE Rs a shoe in for Reelection and anything can happen even in a Biden Midterm

Everyone thought Charlie Baker was safe and he barely leads Maura Healey.

Anything can happen in 500 days, if D's have every safe R a free pass we would lose alot more than what we already have and our H races are in 50 states
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #269 on: May 18, 2021, 07:04:31 PM »

Demings and Murphy seem like pretty good options, even if it is almost certain that neither will win. If Trump was still president, this very easily could've been a genuinely competitive race, but alas there is simply no reason why an incumbent who has proven that he can outperform his state's Tilt R lean would lose in a year that is likely to be favorable to his party.

My guess is that the final margin ends up being similar to the 2016 results (Rubio +7), although it's conceivable that a well-executed Democratic campaign brings that lower. Then again, "well-executed Democratic campaign in Florida" seems like a bit of an oxymoron at this point, so I won't hold my breath on that.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #270 on: May 18, 2021, 07:36:09 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 07:54:33 PM by "?" »

Safe R, no matter what. Why do Florida House Democrats keep throwing away their congressional careers and incumbency for Sisyphean attempts to get elected statewide in this wasteland?

At least in regards to Demings & Crist, they're both 64 years old with 14+ years of public service & in the middle of the pack when it comes to seniority. I don't expect either to be in DC that much longer anyway so I don't know what they've got to lose by running statewide.

Better those two than Murphy or Fried, IMO. The latter two you can certainly argue are throwing away their political careers should they be nominated.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #271 on: May 18, 2021, 07:41:15 PM »

Either one if they lose have Biden as Prez and can take on an ambassadorship or run against Scott in 2024/ Crist and Val Deming's aren't throwing away their careers and DeSantis isn't winning by 10 pts
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Devils30
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« Reply #272 on: May 18, 2021, 08:12:54 PM »

Demings is a clear underdog and FL only flips if PA, WI, NC do first. If this happens the Dems are gaining in the House as well.

That said, she is exactly the type of candidate Dems should promote. A law enforcement official with wide respect all across the aisle and not controversial like the activist wing of the party.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #273 on: May 18, 2021, 08:27:35 PM »

Democrats aren't going to win this race, but better Murphy than Grayson.

That's just what they said in 2016 with Privileged Pat! Worked out great!
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Donerail
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« Reply #274 on: May 18, 2021, 09:25:52 PM »

Better those two than Murphy or Fried, IMO. The latter two you can certainly argue are throwing away their political careers should they be nominated.
Not sure how you can make this argument for Fried, who will be forced to run statewide either way.
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