FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Frenchrepublican]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

I understand the pessimism.  I really do. But I think there are some very important reasons to be optimistic.(Yeah, for the GOP) 2022 won't be like 2018 (Is that supposed to be a good thing for democrats ?) or 2020 for a number of very important reasons.  In retrospect, I think we can see that Democrats' 2018 candidates were not good nominees.  Nelson was older than Methuselah and it showed.  Gillum would have been a great candidate for a state like Virginia, but was self-sabotaging in Florida.  That "the racists think he's racist" line was disastrous--you can't up the salience of race as a campaign issue in a state like Florida and expect to win, especially if you're a black man!  Yes, he was the gubernatorial candidate, but I believe he dragged Democrats down a couple of points across the board.(It's probably why he overperformed congressional democrats + two other statewide democratic candidates)  Fortunately, Murphy isn't likely to make the same mistake. District 7 could be a tough district for Democrats, but Murphy obviously knows how to win contested elections (This is a district that Biden won by double digits and which voted for Gillum and Nelson by large margins, so winning this district is not very impressive, Pat Murphy's record was much more impressive as FL-18 leans much more to the right and actually voted for Romney the year when Murphy won his first election).  Also, unlike 2020, Trump won't be on the ticket.  Trump, as unpopular as he was nationally, could still drive Republican base turnout to ridiculous levels--an ability I don't see Rubio having. (So you expect that democrats are not going to suffer turnout drop off among their lower propensity voters ?) What's more, the economy is going to be banging on election day, and Rubio will have a record of voting against the economic measures that made that prosperity possible (Explain that to all the strong GOP incumbents who lost in 2018 despite the good economy). 

All in all, Rubio will be vulnerable, Murphy is a good candidate, and the mid-term environment won't be as bad for Democrats as many people assume.  Stephanie Murphy can and will win.

I will never understand why some people are so hackish/delusionnal.

I'm not being "hackish."  I'm just trying to offer an alternative read of the situation, one that I think has just as much merit as the counter-position.  I don't think anybody is saying it's a slam dunk, but what is delusional is insisting that Democrats have no chance in Florida a year and a half from now.

There is a difference between saying that democrats have no chance to win Florida and saying that they are favoured, yeah the democratic candidate would have a 20% chance to flip the seat because after all despite their incompetence Florida democrats have a relatively high floor in this state but there is no way  to suggest that Murphy or any other democrat would be favoured to defeat Rubio, FL is a right trending R+8 state and even in a neutral/light blue year winning it would be extremely difficult for democrats especially against Rubio

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Atlas 2012: Ron Johnson is going to be blanched look at how much Wisconsin votes democrat in a presidential race. The entire Midwest is trending democrat. Republicans need to give up here.

Seriously states which Obama won by far more than Florida swung republican in senate races in 2014 but people just wanna write off Florida which had competitive elections in all those years

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can definitely see GA and FL splitting their votes for Senate and Prez Warnock and Rubio winning and CRIST and Kemp winning

Gaetz was such a force behind DeSantis it's gonna hurt his Prez ambitions. Hypocrisy with Gaetz calling Gillium a Socialisic Afro American and no Gaetz is in legal trouble

OH can as well Ryan winning and DeWine, but we don't have a Gov Nominee

Afro Americans like Rubio but dislike DeSantis, he is a Limbaugh supporter

AZ and OH split their votes for Prez and Gov and in a midterm it can happen again

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

All Statewide Offices in this state are Safe R in 2022. Ds should focus on winning in 2024, I think Biden could win it if he runs for re-election given Florida's Pro-Incumbent bent.

[Roll Roons]

Trump endorsed Rubio today. So at least we can completely rule out the possibility of an Ivanka primary challenge.

[brucejoel99]

Trump endorsed Rubio today. So at least we can completely rule out the possibility of an Ivanka primary challenge.

That explains the loud sigh of relief that everybody within a 30-mile radius of SFL just heard

[2016]

Both, Rubio and DeSantis will easily win Re-Election. I find the notion that Crist could beat DeSantis totally laughable. Crist could not beat an unpopular Rick Scott in 2014 where Scott should have lost amid his poor Approvals as Governor back then.

I doubt Rep. Stephanie Murphy could beat Rubio. Marco would crush her in Southern Florida. Murphy might not even win the Democratic Senate Nomination with her moderate stance on the issues. As we saw in 2018 Party Primaries in Florida are becoming increasingly more liberal for the Democrats see the Gillum/Graham Race and increasingly more conservative for Republicans see the DeSantis/Putnam Race.

I am tired of KanyeWests aka Olowakandi Nonsense Predictions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's should not bother to donate to this race, Jackson and Ryan have more to lose than D's in FL

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-democrats-sound-alarm-after-spanish-language-oan-buys-miami-radio-station-fires-liberal-1583297

I'm calling it now: Rubio wins by 15.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=8x95

County prediction. Rubio wins by 12-15%.

[UWS]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=8x95

County prediction. Rubio wins by 12-15%.

The moreover that Stephanie Murphy held a patent for women’s softball pants that her husband’s company manufactures in China, which will likely undermine her political ambitions whether it's in the senate primary or in the general election.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/04/08/democrat-rep-stephanie-murphy-holds-patent-softball-pants-husbands-company-manufactures-china/

[Donerail]

No election is being won or lost over softball pants. Come on now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There can be split voting but 53/47 Senate is gonna be the max and it's gonna be OH, NC and GA, not FL

D's don't need to spend a dime on the Senate race, but CRIST can definitely beat DeSantis

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Izengabe_/status/1386184061136343040?s=19

https://twitter.com/Jenben66/status/1358141179758575616?s=19

https://twitter.com/Izengabe_/status/1386178366345302020?s=19

lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is the best chance for a pickup honestly, for 53 seats with Tim Ryan, Cheri Beasley and D's in FL are tall tasks.

It's probably gonna be a PVI 3=1 Election anyways in a Biden Midterm, the polls showed a very close race in OH due to Josh Mandel, Lean R

[Lambsbread]

We’re going to waste a ton of money on unwinnable races again aren’t we

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's donate to a Lean R race it should be OH as I said before it's the best chance we have due to Josh Mandel it was a tie in last poll

It may split it's votes between DeWine and Ryan like it did in 2018

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Izengabe_/status/1386184061136343040?s=19

https://twitter.com/Jenben66/status/1358141179758575616?s=19

https://twitter.com/Izengabe_/status/1386178366345302020?s=19

lol

Izengabe is a mod on Red Racing Horses.  This is just trolling by some random Republican hack (and very lazy trolling at that). 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cheri Beasley is probably the best bet we have, but if Grayson is our nominee, we have a better chance in FL

[beesley]

Izengabe is a mod on Red Racing Horses.  This is just trolling by some random Republican hack (and very lazy trolling at that). 

Thanks, I'm not sure that makes it any better.

[UWS]

Cheri Beasley is probably the best bet we have, but if Grayson is our nominee, we have a better chance in FL

Grayson is too socialist for FL. He endorsed Bernie Sanders twice. In the general election, he will be scrutinized for the domestic abuse allegations abuse against him. Not only this, Grayson is too anti-police for FL, no wonder that he accidentally tweeted, quote, « F*** the police » and in 2014 Grayson has also been the author of a bill denying funds for body armors for sheriffs as well as funding for the Defense Department Excess Personal Property Program.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2014/roll329.xml

And Grayson even said that ICE should be abolished.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/271991-alan-grayson-darren-soto-wayne-lienitzky-spread-on-ice-in-political-salsa-cd-9-debate/

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1388165455114903552?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

If we can't get anybody non-controversial, then Florida Democrats are even more incompetent than I thought. Even if this race was never winnable to begin with.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely R -> Likely R

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1392278327629688838?s=21