FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

[Calthrina950]

Per Wikipedia, Marco Rubio has announced on Facebook that he will run again.

Can any Democrat make this competitive?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Corrine Brown

No lol

Debbie Wasserman Schultz would lose by 50 and I'd be right there voting against her.

As for Brown, she has too much baggage, including her felony fraud conviction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Political_controversies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Felony_fraud_conviction

Corrine Brown is a FL Dem-style bad outcome just waiting to happen, if she gets the nod for a statewide run.

Brown's legal troubles are why she lost her seat to Al Lawson in 2016. And during her time in Congress, she was one of the most ignorant and self-serving Representatives. I recall watching a YouTube clip of her infamous "Go Gators" speech on the House floor from about a decade or so ago. Her political career is finished, and if she were somehow the Democratic nominee, she would lose by close to double digits.

She would lose by double digits. It's a very good thing that she won't be our nominee.

I hesitated to go that far, because Florida, while certainly a Republican state, is still polarized enough that it would be difficult for any candidate now to win it by double digits. But with Brown, you may very well be right. Of course, she won't be the nominee as you said, so there won't be any worry about it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio and DeSantis aren't losing, with that  57% approvals poll, it's best for D's to target OH and NC, Cranley is only 46 yrs old and if the Economy improves, he can be the next Gov, DeWine only won by 3 pts not by 20 and Josh Mandel is Lee Fisher to D's as Lee Fisher was to Rs

NC we only lost by 1.5 and Jeff Jackson wont be hurt with WC females like CUNNINGHAM was due to CUNNINGHAM sex sting.

PPP is headquartered in NC and we will find out soon enough if Jackson has a chance

[S019]

Per Wikipedia, Marco Rubio has announced on Facebook that he will run again.

Can any Democrat make this competitive?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Corrine Brown

No lol

Debbie Wasserman Schultz would lose by 50 and I'd be right there voting against her.

As for Brown, she has too much baggage, including her felony fraud conviction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Political_controversies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrine_Brown#Felony_fraud_conviction

Corrine Brown is a FL Dem-style bad outcome just waiting to happen, if she gets the nod for a statewide run.

Brown's legal troubles are why she lost her seat to Al Lawson in 2016. And during her time in Congress, she was one of the most ignorant and self-serving Representatives. I recall watching a YouTube clip of her infamous "Go Gators" speech on the House floor from about a decade or so ago. Her political career is finished, and if she were somehow the Democratic nominee, she would lose by close to double digits.

Redistricting also killed her because the FL supreme court made a decision stating that an Orlando to Jacksonville district was absurd(100% True) and then promptly made a Tallahassee to Jacksonville district(nearly as absurd)

Yes we understand that increasing minority representation is bad, you don't have to keep saying it over and over again.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1375945899747106818

Ha. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I guess Marco will win by double digits after all.

[juulze68]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1375945899747106818
Ha. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I guess Marco will win by double digits after all.

I wonder how Grayson will do in the primary. In 2016 he won Orange and Osceola, which are part of the district he represented, along with the portion of the panhandle that often votes for protest candidates.

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1375945899747106818

Ha. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I guess Marco will win by double digits after all.

Why is he such a bad candidate

[Roll Roons]

If Grayson does actually get the nomination, I think MD and Palm Beach might go Republican. Duval, Hillsborough, Pinellas and Seminole definitely will.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope Grayson doesn't win the primary. Of course, this race probably isn't winnable for Democrats anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1375945899747106818
Ha. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I guess Marco will win by double digits after all.

I wonder how Grayson will do in the primary. In 2016 he won Orange and Osceola, which are part of the district he represented, along with the portion of the panhandle that often votes for protest candidates.

Don't you realize the Election is 500 days from now that's why DeSantis is tied in FL he only beat a Socialisic Afro American Andrew Gillium, he will be a weak R frontrunner for Prez if he survives, Biden will crush him or Noem or Haley with 54 Percent Approvals

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Titanium R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL, OH, IA and NC are not safe R states we won them in 2008/12 we will win them again

Our House races are in 50 states not 278, but go ahead and believe they are safe R state and watch us keep Congress next yr running a 50 state not 279 campaign.

Biden is not at 40 Percent approvals like Trump was in 2018

Trump barely won FL by 300 K votes within the margin of error

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1375945899747106818
Ha. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I guess Marco will win by double digits after all.

Why is he such a bad candidate

Rich Multi-Millionare Pesudo-libertarain with very strange conspiratrorial views and domestic abuse allegations who ran an incredibly nasty primary campagin in 2016.

[UWS]

FL, OH, IA and NC are not safe R states we won them in 2008/12 we will win them again

Our House races are in 50 states not 278, but go ahead and believe they are safe R state and watch us keep Congress next yr running a 50 state not 279 campaign.

Biden is not at 40 Percent approvals like Trump was in 2018

Trump barely won FL by 300 K votes within the margin of error

Don’t be so sure. We’re not in 2008/12 anymore. The FL Dems have become so incompetent a bit like the CA GOP that’s why they didn’t win the governorship for 20 years and didn’t manage to beat Rubio in 2016 when he won by high single digits even at a time Obama had an approval rating of above 54 % nationally and 55 % in Florida.

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/florida-obama-job-approval

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know we aren't there anymore but Rs don't have a monopoly on red states that sometimes vote D, Biden isn't Hillary and neither is Harris.

Don't forget the peak of R dominance in the state Legislatures were in 2016 when Hillary lost due to Gary Johnson

We have a chance with Amy Acton in OH, we have to expand the battleground beyond 278, we have to get to 218 in the House and our House races are in 50 states not 278

PA, WI and NH Senate are going D, we have GA, FL iA and OH as wave insurence, OH or FL or NC can substitute for GA which is a Runoff

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1375945899747106818

Ha. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I guess Marco will win by double digits after all.

Still better than trying Murphy again.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

[SnowLabrador]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

I'm not a huge fan of Murphy and think she's overrated. That said, I'd be thrilled if this happened. I doubt it will, since it's Florida.

[Sir Mohamed]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

It's not safe R, Biden Approvals aren't 40 percent, it's 53 percent, did you see the S Pete's poll that showed DeSantis tied before the Gaetz story

[Sir Mohamed]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

It's not safe R, Biden Approvals aren't 40 percent, it's 53 percent, did you see the S Pete's poll that showed DeSantis tied before the Gaetz story

Current Biden approval is meaningless in a senate election 18 months out. Come on. DeSantis is popular and nobody will care about Gaetz by election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will make our Predictions next yr, I will make FL Safe Grayson and CRIST you might not, but I will

That's what Prediction maps are for, we will disagree

[Heebie Jeebie]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

I understand the pessimism.  I really do.  But I think there are some very important reasons to be optimistic.  2022 won't be like 2018 or 2020 for a number of very important reasons.  In retrospect, I think we can see that Democrats' 2018 candidates were not good nominees.  Nelson was older than Methuselah and it showed.  Gillum would have been a great candidate for a state like Virginia, but was self-sabotaging in Florida.  That "the racists think he's racist" line was disastrous--you can't up the salience of race as a campaign issue in a state like Florida and expect to win, especially if you're a black man!  Yes, he was the gubernatorial candidate, but I believe he dragged Democrats down a couple of points across the board.  Fortunately, Murphy isn't likely to make the same mistake.  District 7 could be a tough district for Democrats, but Murphy obviously knows how to win contested elections.  Also, unlike 2020, Trump won't be on the ticket.  Trump, as unpopular as he was nationally, could still drive Republican base turnout to ridiculous levels--an ability I don't see Rubio having.  What's more, the economy is going to be banging on election day, and Rubio will have a record of voting against the economic measures that made that prosperity possible. 

All in all, Rubio will be vulnerable, Murphy is a good candidate, and the mid-term environment won't be as bad for Democrats as many people assume.  Stephanie Murphy can and will win.

[Frenchrepublican]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

I understand the pessimism.  I really do. But I think there are some very important reasons to be optimistic.(Yeah, for the GOP) 2022 won't be like 2018 (Is that supposed to be a good thing for democrats ?) or 2020 for a number of very important reasons.  In retrospect, I think we can see that Democrats' 2018 candidates were not good nominees.  Nelson was older than Methuselah and it showed.  Gillum would have been a great candidate for a state like Virginia, but was self-sabotaging in Florida.  That "the racists think he's racist" line was disastrous--you can't up the salience of race as a campaign issue in a state like Florida and expect to win, especially if you're a black man!  Yes, he was the gubernatorial candidate, but I believe he dragged Democrats down a couple of points across the board.(It's probably why he overperformed congressional democrats + two other statewide democratic candidates)  Fortunately, Murphy isn't likely to make the same mistake. District 7 could be a tough district for Democrats, but Murphy obviously knows how to win contested elections (This is a district that Biden won by double digits and which voted for Gillum and Nelson by large margins, so winning this district is not very impressive, Pat Murphy's record was much more impressive as FL-18 leans much more to the right and actually voted for Romney the year when Murphy won his first election).  Also, unlike 2020, Trump won't be on the ticket.  Trump, as unpopular as he was nationally, could still drive Republican base turnout to ridiculous levels--an ability I don't see Rubio having. (So you expect that democrats are not going to suffer turnout drop off among their lower propensity voters ?) What's more, the economy is going to be banging on election day, and Rubio will have a record of voting against the economic measures that made that prosperity possible (Explain that to all the strong GOP incumbents who lost in 2018 despite the good economy). 

All in all, Rubio will be vulnerable, Murphy is a good candidate, and the mid-term environment won't be as bad for Democrats as many people assume.  Stephanie Murphy can and will win.

I will never understand why some people are so hackish/delusionnal.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Stephanie Murphy is going to beat Marco Rubio.

Nah, FL-Sen is Safe R in terms of winning chance and Likely R in terms of margin. Recent Dem performances in the state give me little hope this seat his worth targeting, and 2022 for sure is going to be a less Dem-favorable environment than 2018 and 2020 were. For sure this is kind of depressing because Mr. Rubio fully deserves to lose.

I understand the pessimism.  I really do. But I think there are some very important reasons to be optimistic.(Yeah, for the GOP) 2022 won't be like 2018 (Is that supposed to be a good thing for democrats ?) or 2020 for a number of very important reasons.  In retrospect, I think we can see that Democrats' 2018 candidates were not good nominees.  Nelson was older than Methuselah and it showed.  Gillum would have been a great candidate for a state like Virginia, but was self-sabotaging in Florida.  That "the racists think he's racist" line was disastrous--you can't up the salience of race as a campaign issue in a state like Florida and expect to win, especially if you're a black man!  Yes, he was the gubernatorial candidate, but I believe he dragged Democrats down a couple of points across the board.(It's probably why he overperformed congressional democrats + two other statewide democratic candidates)  Fortunately, Murphy isn't likely to make the same mistake. District 7 could be a tough district for Democrats, but Murphy obviously knows how to win contested elections (This is a district that Biden won by double digits and which voted for Gillum and Nelson by large margins, so winning this district is not very impressive, Pat Murphy's record was much more impressive as FL-18 leans much more to the right and actually voted for Romney the year when Murphy won his first election).  Also, unlike 2020, Trump won't be on the ticket.  Trump, as unpopular as he was nationally, could still drive Republican base turnout to ridiculous levels--an ability I don't see Rubio having. (So you expect that democrats are not going to suffer turnout drop off among their lower propensity voters ?) What's more, the economy is going to be banging on election day, and Rubio will have a record of voting against the economic measures that made that prosperity possible (Explain that to all the strong GOP incumbents who lost in 2018 despite the good economy). 

All in all, Rubio will be vulnerable, Murphy is a good candidate, and the mid-term environment won't be as bad for Democrats as many people assume.  Stephanie Murphy can and will win.

I will never understand why some people are so hackish/delusionnal.

I'm not being "hackish."  I'm just trying to offer an alternative read of the situation, one that I think has just as much merit as the counter-position.  I don't think anybody is saying it's a slam dunk, but what is delusional is insisting that Democrats have no chance in Florida a year and a half from now.

[Donerail]

It's not safe R, Biden Approvals aren't 40 percent, it's 53 percent, did you see the S Pete's poll that showed DeSantis tied before the Gaetz story

Current Biden approval is meaningless in a senate election 18 months out. Come on. DeSantis is popular and nobody will care about Gaetz by election day.

Current DeSantis approval is meaningless in a senate election 18 months out. Come on. Biden is popular