Texas in 2024 if its a strong GOP year, and maybe Florida in a wave year as well if Democrats completely triage the state
Nah, I think the San Antonio, Dallas, Austin and Houston suburbs will continue to trend D, which would keep Texas on the mid-single digits.
And Florida is too inelastic to go beyond 10%
Keep in mind trends slow down in years the party holds control of the WH and even then I mentioned a strong GOP year which would require them to win the popular vote by 2-3 points.
As For Florida, Marco Rubio won by 9 points in 2016 so say if the GOP nominee is Rubio in 2024 the Democrats could triage the state and if its a GOP wave year its possible even though hard for Florida to be 10%+.
Now if for some reason a left wing populist ala 1896 takes over the Dem nomination in 2024(like an AOC) there is a possibility that just like in 1896 trends that were going against the Dem party continue to go against them while trends that were going in their favor for the previous 16 years swing back hard towards the GOP which would result in a GOP landslide and in that scenario Republicans wins nationally by 6-7 points and potentially take PA MI by double digits(Albeit this scenario is very unlikely but its not impossible)
