How many CDs has Biden won?

[S019]

Decided to check a couple in Harris County. Biden won TX-07 by 8.5% and lost TX-02 by 2.3%.

At a glance it looks like Biden lost IL-17 - in the counties fully contained in the district, Joy King leads by 4839 votes, while Trump leads by 17370. The difference between the two (12531) is larger than the difference between Bustos' district wide lead (11326), so assuming Biden isn't doing better than Bustos in the split counties, it would appear Biden has lost the district.

Do you have a source for the TX data, I've been trying to find the data myself?

[n1240]

Decided to check a couple in Harris County. Biden won TX-07 by 8.5% and lost TX-02 by 2.3%.

At a glance it looks like Biden lost IL-17 - in the counties fully contained in the district, Joy King leads by 4839 votes, while Trump leads by 17370. The difference between the two (12531) is larger than the difference between Bustos' district wide lead (11326), so assuming Biden isn't doing better than Bustos in the split counties, it would appear Biden has lost the district.

Do you have a source for the TX data, I've been trying to find the data myself?

Just for Harris County:

https://www.harrisvotes.com/ElectionResults/ElectionDay?lang=en-US

Click the house button under each contest to get precinct data.

[Skill and Chance]

VA-1 is Trump 51/47

Strongly suggests there isn't enough room geographically to draw GOP leaning state legislative maps anymore.

[n1240]

Who won IL-14 (Underwood's district)?

Underwood ahead by 3000 votes with 99% reporting(google). Looks like she will hang on

Oh I meant at the presidential level

Not a full calc because I don't feel like writing a script to go through the Kane County precinct data but Biden is running about 3% ahead of Underwood in Lake, roughly in line in McHenry, 3% ahead in Will, and generally between 0-7% better in the limited sample of Kane precincts I've viewed, so I think it's very likely that Biden wins IL-14.

[VAR]

Trump carried NM-02 by 12%.

[VAR]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

OK now thats just sad that Valenzuela couldn't win

[VAR]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

OK now thats just sad that Valenzuela couldn't win

It seems like literally every non-incumbent Dem underperformed Biden by 4-6 points. Very interesting.

[Calthrina950]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

OK now thats just sad that Valenzuela couldn't win

It seems like literally every non-incumbent Dem underperformed Biden by 4-6 points. Very interesting.

As I noted elsewhere today, it seems like many voters wanted to get Trump out, but didn't feel comfortable giving Biden a Democratic trifecta, or even an expanded House majority.

[VAR]

Trump carried OK-05 by 6.6% (Trump +13.4 in 2016). Stephanie Bice (R) defeated incumbent Kendra Horn (D) by 4.1%.

Other districts:
OK-01: Trump +22.8 (+28.7 in 2016)
OK-02: Trump +53.9 (+50.1 in 2016)
OK-03: Trump +51.4 (+52.7 in 2016)
OK-04: Trump +33.0 (+37.4 in 2016)

[Calthrina950]

Trump carried NM-02 by 12%.

With that kind of margin, it was impossible for Torres-Small to win reelection. She ran ahead of Biden, but still lost by 8%.

[n1240]

Biden will win NY-19 in the end, probably by between 3-5 points.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump carried OK-05 by 6.6% (Trump +13.4 in 2016). Stephanie Bice (R) defeated incumbent Kendra Horn (D) by 4.1%.

Other districts:
OK-01: Trump +22.8 (+28.7 in 2016)
OK-02: Trump +53.9 (+50.1 in 2016)
OK-03: Trump +51.4 (+52.7 in 2016)
OK-04: Trump +33.0 (+37.4 in 2016)

Looks like they will be able to gerrymander OKC without worrying about Tulsa then. 

[S019]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

What is the source for this, I'd really like the data for TX especially

[freepcrusher]

so has the R advantage in the house finally dissipated a little bit? Remember that Romney won 230 districts while losing PV by four. The problem is that as soon as the house problem lessened in its severity - the senate problem flared up. Hopefully it works itself out at some point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

so has the R advantage in the house finally dissipated a little bit? Remember that Romney won 230 districts while losing PV by four. The problem is that as soon as the house problem lessened in its severity - the senate problem flared up. Hopefully it works itself out at some point.

Several states got new districts.  Republicans might have just won the House with the 2013 districts.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

so has the R advantage in the house finally dissipated a little bit? Remember that Romney won 230 districts while losing PV by four. The problem is that as soon as the house problem lessened in its severity - the senate problem flared up. Hopefully it works itself out at some point.

Several states got new districts.  Republicans might have just won the House with the 2013 districts.

Yeah, we almost certainly would have won the House this year if PA/NC/FL/VA hadn't redistricted mid-decade.  But, the other factor is that gerrymanders are much more effective early in a decade than they are late in a decade.  For instance, Republicans in Georgia in 2011 were not concerned in the slightest about GA-6 or GA-7 going Democrat.

Also, even though Republicans may come as close as 4 seats from a House majority, there would have needed to be a more than 2 point national swing to bring those last 4 seats home.

215. IL-14 (Underwood +1)
216. IA-3 (Axne +1.4)
217. VA-7 (Spanberger +1.
218. MN-2 (Craig +2.2)

Now, there are a ton of districts that Democrats won by 3-4 (probably right about where the House NPV winds up), but the House map wasn't nearly as effective for Republicans as it usually is.

[Tekken_Guy]

so has the R advantage in the house finally dissipated a little bit? Remember that Romney won 230 districts while losing PV by four. The problem is that as soon as the house problem lessened in its severity - the senate problem flared up. Hopefully it works itself out at some point.

Several states got new districts.  Republicans might have just won the House with the 2013 districts.

Yeah, we almost certainly would have won the House this year if PA/NC/FL/VA hadn't redistricted mid-decade.  But, the other factor is that gerrymanders are much more effective early in a decade than they are late in a decade.  For instance, Republicans in Georgia in 2011 were not concerned in the slightest about GA-6 or GA-7 going Democrat.

Also, even though Republicans may come as close as 4 seats from a House majority, there would have needed to be a more than 2 point national swing to bring those last 4 seats home.

215. IL-14 (Underwood +1)
216. IA-3 (Axne +1.4)
217. VA-7 (Spanberger +1.
218. MN-2 (Craig +2.2)

Now, there are a ton of districts that Democrats won by 3-4 (probably right about where the House NPV winds up), but the House map wasn't nearly as effective for Republicans as it usually is.

That doesn’t seem too much. Even a slight alteration of the timeline would get Trump re-elected, win back the house, and defeat Gary Peters.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327415585471225856

Peter Meijer (R) won 53-47.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was Obama in 2008 using the current CD lines, crazy to see how much rural areas have shifted towards Rs and suburban areas towards Ds.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This was Obama in 2008 using the current CD lines, crazy to see how much rural areas have shifted towards Rs and suburban areas towards Ds.

According to data compiled by DailyKos (https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections), which I used for my map, Obama carried current TX-23 in 2008.

[Frenchrepublican]

Some MI numbers

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327679288317857792?s=20

Biden is doing well in MI-3 and is recovering a bit compared to Clinton in MI-9

[VAR]

TX-22: Trump +1

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1327683894393647104

[Gass3268]

Biden numbers in MI-5 are very weak, he did even worse than Clinton

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327694229603160065?s=20

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327699868714876929?s=20

[Storr]

TX-22: Trump +1

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1327683894393647104

Maybe someday....maybe...