How many CDs has Biden won?
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  How many CDs has Biden won?
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Author Topic: How many CDs has Biden won?  (Read 17139 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #275 on: December 12, 2020, 04:16:50 PM »

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

I'm honestly surprised by Lamb, he went from the Democratic wonder boy who won a Trump +20 SWPA district to this. That district was as Trumpy as it gets and no Democrat had any business winning it, special election or not. This doesn't bode well for his chances of winning statewide office. I don't know if he suffered some kind of carpetbagging penalty for moving from his old district to the new PA-17 or if he's lost the touch he originally had and is now a generic Democrat.

Maybe it's just harder for these red-district Democrats when they're in the House majority since then they have to actually vote on the liberal (and unpopular in their district) stuff the Democrats put forward rather than just opposing the unpopular stuff the Republicans put forward when they were in the majority.


I'm not sure either, and Lamb is a protégé of Biden's. But I think it is obvious that Lamb will be a target for Republicans at the congressional level in 2022, and I certainly don't think he's the strongest candidate Democrats could run for Senate or for Governor. But we'll have to see how things develop.

and nothing of value was lost

What do you mean? I'm assuming you've never been particularly impressed by Lamb? To be honest, I haven't either.
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emailking
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« Reply #276 on: December 12, 2020, 04:50:41 PM »

So did Biden win narrowly if the whole country used the ME/NE system?
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jfern
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« Reply #277 on: December 12, 2020, 04:54:55 PM »

So did Biden win narrowly if the whole country used the ME/NE system?

Yes, narrowly.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #278 on: December 12, 2020, 05:15:55 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5n2f

Here's a map with district flips. Biden won 17 districts Trump carried in 2016, while Trump picked up 2 from Biden.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #279 on: December 12, 2020, 05:18:24 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5n2f

Here's a map with district flips. Biden won 17 districts Trump carried in 2016, while Trump picked up 2 from Biden.

Biden won NY-19 ?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #280 on: December 12, 2020, 05:24:03 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5n2f

Here's a map with district flips. Biden won 17 districts Trump carried in 2016, while Trump picked up 2 from Biden.

Biden won NY-19 ?

Eyeballing the county map, that makes sense to me, especially given the yuge shift in Columbia County.
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VAR
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« Reply #281 on: December 12, 2020, 05:45:18 PM »

Biden carried CO-06 by 19%.
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VAR
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« Reply #282 on: December 12, 2020, 05:47:33 PM »

Trump carried MN-01 by only 10%. He won it by 15% in 2016.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #283 on: December 12, 2020, 05:51:12 PM »


Trump carried MN-01 by only 10%. He won it by 15% in 2016.

That underscores why those two states swung so hard to the left.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #284 on: December 14, 2020, 04:55:00 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=5n2f

Here's a map with district flips. Biden won 17 districts Trump carried in 2016, while Trump picked up 2 from Biden.

Biden won NY-19 ?
Trump 16 won it by 6%, and we see shifts of 5-7% across the region, it was very close.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #285 on: December 14, 2020, 06:38:02 PM »

California from DKE:



Trump only won three districts by more than 10 points.
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Pericles
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« Reply #286 on: December 14, 2020, 07:45:50 PM »

Huh, I thought Trump might have won CA-48 given he barely lost it in 2016 and the House results. The CA House Dem performances were embarrassing this year.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #287 on: December 14, 2020, 08:25:01 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 08:32:12 PM by Nyvin »

California from DKE:



Trump only won three districts by more than 10 points.

Trump only won CA-22 (Devin Nunes) by 5.4%,  was 9.5% in 2016.

Kinda interesting how CA-10 barely changed at all except a drop in third party votes,  was 3% Clinton and now 2.9% Biden.
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nclib
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« Reply #288 on: December 16, 2020, 10:56:51 PM »



NY-15 is no longer the most Democratic seat. It has been (actually this seat...South Bronx...was NY-16 until 2012). Except 2004 when it got a 9/11 bounce, and the old NY-15 beat it out.

PA-3 (Philly) appears to be the most Dem seat, with Barbara Lee's (CA-13 Oakland/Berkeley) 2nd.
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Devils30
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« Reply #289 on: December 16, 2020, 11:18:32 PM »

California from DKE:



Trump only won three districts by more than 10 points.

Trump only won CA-22 (Devin Nunes) by 5.4%,  was 9.5% in 2016.

Kinda interesting how CA-10 barely changed at all except a drop in third party votes,  was 3% Clinton and now 2.9% Biden.

If Dems keep gaining with college grads and their Hispanic slip reverses in 2024-28, the GOP in Cali House could be truly apoplectic.
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nclib
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« Reply #290 on: February 21, 2021, 06:38:08 PM »

The best Biden CDs were:

PA-3   91.3%
CA-13   88.9%
NY-13   88.1%
NY-15   86.4%
IL-7   86.3%

The worst Trump CDs were:

PA-3   8.1%
CA-13   9.0%
NY-13   11.2%
CA-12   11.9%
IL-7   12.1%

If you count DC and a CD, it would be first in both 92.1% - 5.4%.

The best Trump CDs were:

AL-4   81.2%
KY-5   80.2%
TX-13   79.2%
TX-11   79.1%
MO-8    77.3%

The worst Biden CDs were:

AL-4   17.8%
KY-5   18.6%
TX-13   19.4%
TX-11   19.7%
MO-8    21.4%
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #291 on: February 21, 2021, 09:30:45 PM »

The best Biden CDs were:

PA-3   91.3%
CA-13   88.9%
NY-13   88.1%
NY-15   86.4%
IL-7   86.3%

The worst Trump CDs were:

PA-3   8.1%
CA-13   9.0%
NY-13   11.2%
CA-12   11.9%
IL-7   12.1%

If you count DC and a CD, it would be first in both 92.1% - 5.4%.

The best Trump CDs were:

AL-4   81.2%
KY-5   80.2%
TX-13   79.2%
TX-11   79.1%
MO-8    77.3%

The worst Biden CDs were:

AL-4   17.8%
KY-5   18.6%
TX-13   19.4%
TX-11   19.7%
MO-8    21.4%

What's amazing about AL-04 is that it was in Democratic hands as late as 1996. That year, long-time Democratic incumbent Tom Bevill (who was in office for thirty years), declined to run for reelection, and was succeeded by Robert Aderholt, who still holds the seat now after 24 years. It went from being a classic Southern, Blue Dog Democratic district to now being the most Republican district in the country in just a quarter of a century.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #292 on: February 21, 2021, 09:47:05 PM »

The best Biden CDs were:

PA-3   91.3%
CA-13   88.9%
NY-13   88.1%
NY-15   86.4%
IL-7   86.3%

The worst Trump CDs were:

PA-3   8.1%
CA-13   9.0%
NY-13   11.2%
CA-12   11.9%
IL-7   12.1%

If you count DC and a CD, it would be first in both 92.1% - 5.4%.

The best Trump CDs were:

AL-4   81.2%
KY-5   80.2%
TX-13   79.2%
TX-11   79.1%
MO-8    77.3%

The worst Biden CDs were:

AL-4   17.8%
KY-5   18.6%
TX-13   19.4%
TX-11   19.7%
MO-8    21.4%

I think this is a pretty dramatic GOP improvement in NY-15 vs. 2008/12/16?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #293 on: February 24, 2021, 11:43:58 AM »

Bahahahaha.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #294 on: February 26, 2021, 03:03:38 AM »

Does anybody know of a complete list of all Biden-GOP districts and all Trump-Democrat districts list?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #295 on: February 26, 2021, 03:31:15 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2021, 03:42:33 AM by Alcibiades »

Does anybody know of a complete list of all Biden-GOP districts and all Trump-Democrat districts list?

Biden-GOP:

CA-21
CA-25
CA-48
FL-27
NE-02
NY-24
PA-01
TX-24

Trump-Democrat:

IL-17
IA-03
MI-08
ME-02
NJ-03
PA-08
WI-03
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beesley
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« Reply #296 on: February 26, 2021, 03:46:10 AM »

Does anybody know of a complete list of all Biden-GOP districts and all Trump-Democrat districts list?

Biden-GOP:

CA-21
CA-25
CA-48
FL-27
NE-02
NY-24
PA-01
TX-24

Trump-Democrat:

IL-17
IA-03
MI-08
ME-02
NJ-03
PA-08
WI-03

That plus CA-39.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #297 on: February 26, 2021, 04:11:17 AM »

Thanks to both of you! 👍🏻
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