How many CDs has Biden won?

[S019]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Given Nehls and Van Duyne are new and probably among their weaker incumbents, I wouldn't be shocked if they just gave them swing or even leaning blue seats that they might hold for one or two cycles before they flip rather than trying to shore up both for the decade.

[Frenchrepublican]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Given Nehls and Van Duyne are new and probably among their weaker incumbents, I wouldn't be shocked if they just gave them swing or even leaning blue seats that they might hold for one or two cycles before they flip rather than trying to shore up both for the decade.

That's wishful thinkings from your part, a more likely scenario is that CDs 7/32 will become D sink and that all the red seats will be shored up.

[Roll Roons]

Also maybe this was already brought up, but what congressional district had the strongest leftward shift at the presidential level? I assume the strongest rightward shift was probably either a Cuban district in Florida or a fajita strip in the RGV.

[Bootes Void]

Also maybe this was already brought up, but what congressional district had the strongest leftward shift at the presidential level? I assume the strongest rightward shift was probably either a Cuban district in Florida or a fajita strip in the RGV.

i know a few suburbs in Georgia,Texas and a few in the northern states(maybe)that swung double digits to Biden so it would be one of those

[S019]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Given Nehls and Van Duyne are new and probably among their weaker incumbents, I wouldn't be shocked if they just gave them swing or even leaning blue seats that they might hold for one or two cycles before they flip rather than trying to shore up both for the decade.

That's wishful thinkings from your part, a more likely scenario is that CDs 7/32 will become D sink and that all the red seats will be shored up.

I mean you can't go for all safe seats in DFW, that metro is bluing and at a quite rapid pace, I think drawing a swingy seat that lasts part of the decade is a better trade off than going all out and risking a dummymander, you can probably get away with just ceding 7 in Houston, but idk, Crenshaw and Nehls might really be pushing it by the end of the decade.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I mean you can't go for all safe seats in DFW, that metro is bluing and at a quite rapid pace, I think drawing a swingy seat that lasts part of the decade is a better trade off than going all out and risking a dummymander, you can probably get away with just ceding 7 in Houston, but idk, Crenshaw and Nehls might really be pushing it by the end of the decade.

Congratulations on your 10,000th post! 👏🏻 🙌🏻 🍾

[Roll Roons]

It appears that Trump won NJ-03 by 0.2%. God, Richter sucked so hard.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1331097523562352643

[GALeftist]

It appears that Trump won NJ-03 by 0.2%. God, Richter sucked so hard.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1331097523562352643

I think you mean that Andy Kim is an unbeatable demigod.

[Roll Roons]

It appears that Trump won NJ-03 by 0.2%. God, Richter sucked so hard.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1331097523562352643

I think you mean that Andy Kim is an unbeatable demigod.

I will say that he's a very nice guy.

[Gracile]

Connecticut:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331414670209654785

[Roll Roons]

Utah:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1331397731752038410

[Calthrina950]

Utah:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1331397731752038410

A similar situation to NM-02. Trump's 9% margin in UT-04 proved to be too much for McAdams to overcome, although he came close due to the quality of his opponent. But then again, Trump won ME-02 by 7% and Golden was able to survive.

[Devils30]

Utah:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1331397731752038410

Dems should probably shore up 2 and 5 a bit with the redraw once census numbers out.

[Skill and Chance]

Utah:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1331397731752038410

Dems should probably shore up 2 and 5 a bit with the redraw once census numbers out.

They can't.  The CT constitution has a 2/3rds majority requirement to pass maps.

[lfromnj]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

The wisest thing they could do would be to try to flip GA-02 and instead concede 5 seats in the Atlanta area (4 would need to be black majority CVAP for this to hold up in court).

 5 seats in Atlanta is a fair map lol,why would they not atleast claw back one seat and mountain range it all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Connecticut:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331414670209654785

very fitting that D gains among wealthier white voters have made CT-04 the most pro-Biden district in the state.

[VAR]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

[Roll Roons]

Connecticut:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331414670209654785

very fitting that D gains among wealthier white voters have made CT-04 the most pro-Biden district in the state.

Doubly so when the district's former longtime GOP congressman is a staunch never-Trumper who endorsed Biden. If anything, Chris Shays epitomizes the politics of this area so well.

[Calthrina950]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

No districts flipped in Washington this year, as Biden appears to have outperformed Clinton mainly through building up his margins in WA-08 and the other Democratic-held seats. That seems to be the trend in many solidly Democratic states-Biden building upon Clinton's margins through winning third-party and new voters.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

5 seats in Atlanta is a fair map lol.

Uh-uh. 7 seats in Atlanta is a fair map. It's half the state. One (Milton, Forsyth) would lean R but be cancelled by the Columbus/Macon seat for 7-7 statewide.

[Mr.Phips]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

No districts flipped in Washington this year, as Biden appears to have outperformed Clinton mainly through building up his margins in WA-08 and the other Democratic-held seats. That seems to be the trend in many solidly Democratic states-Biden building upon Clinton's margins through winning third-party and new voters.

Dems on the redistricting commission better insist that WA-08 drops the counties east of the cascades.  That would probably move the district up to 58% Biden.

[Nyvin]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

I'm actually kinda surprised WA-3 was that close.

[Roll Roons]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

I'm actually kinda surprised WA-3 was that close.

And of course JHB outran Trump by 10 points. Now that I think about it, which GOP House incumbents DIDN’T run ahead of Trump? Jim Hagedorn is the only one I know of.

[VAR]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

I'm actually kinda surprised WA-3 was that close.

And of course JHB outran Trump by 10 points. Now that I think about it, which GOP House incumbents DIDN’T run ahead of Trump? Jim Hagedorn is the only one I know of.

Apparently Richard Hudson (NC-08) ran behind Trump as well.

[VAR]

How did Trump do in CA-21?