How many CDs has Biden won?

[Roll Roons]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

Possibly OH-01, but I don't think he won any others.

[Calthrina950]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

[Frenchrepublican]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

[VAR]

WI districts:

WI-01: Trump +9.5 (Trump +10.3 in 2016)
WI-02: Biden +40.0 (Clinton +36.3)
WI-03: Trump +4.6 (Trump +4.5)
WI-04: Biden +52.0 (Clinton +51.5)
WI-05: Trump +15.0 (Trump +19.8
WI-06: Trump +15.2 (Trump +16.6)
WI-07: Trump +19.8 (Trump +20.3)
WI-08: Trump +15.9 (Trump +17.4)

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1328024183947882497

[Devils30]

In NJ it's pretty clear Biden won 5,7 and 11 and the rest and Trump won 2 and 4. 3 is very close

[Calthrina950]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

I wouldn't be surprised if the margin was that close, given that Trump won Mahoning County this time. I read somewhere that Tim Ryan won reelection by about 7%, and he almost certainly ran ahead of Biden by a few percentage points. At any rate, I think it's safe to assume that Ryan is a goner in 2022, especially with redistricting imminent. And even with the current map, as it is now, I think he would be a goner then.

[It’s so Joever]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

I wouldn't be surprised if the margin was that close, given that Trump won Mahoning County this time. I read somewhere that Tim Ryan won reelection by about 7%, and he almost certainly ran ahead of Biden by a few percentage points. At any rate, I think it's safe to assume that Ryan is a goner in 2022, especially with redistricting imminent. And even with the current map, as it is now, I think he would be a goner then.

Yeah I assume his presidential campaign was him desperately looking for a new job come redistricting.

[Calthrina950]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

I wouldn't be surprised if the margin was that close, given that Trump won Mahoning County this time. I read somewhere that Tim Ryan won reelection by about 7%, and he almost certainly ran ahead of Biden by a few percentage points. At any rate, I think it's safe to assume that Ryan is a goner in 2022, especially with redistricting imminent. And even with the current map, as it is now, I think he would be a goner then.

Yeah I assume his presidential campaign was him desperately looking for a new job come redistricting.

That seems to be a pretty good observation, with hindsight now provided. Now as for our home state of Colorado, I am curious to know what percentage Biden got in Jason Crow's district. No districts changed hands compared to 2016, as Trump probably won Boebert's district by mid to high single digits. Biden probably got in the upper 50s in Perlmutter's district, broke 60% in Neguse's district, and received over 70% in DeGette's district, while Trump probably got ~60% in Buck's district and in the upper 50s in Lamborn's district.

[It’s so Joever]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

I wouldn't be surprised if the margin was that close, given that Trump won Mahoning County this time. I read somewhere that Tim Ryan won reelection by about 7%, and he almost certainly ran ahead of Biden by a few percentage points. At any rate, I think it's safe to assume that Ryan is a goner in 2022, especially with redistricting imminent. And even with the current map, as it is now, I think he would be a goner then.

Yeah I assume his presidential campaign was him desperately looking for a new job come redistricting.

That seems to be a pretty good observation, with hindsight now provided. Now as for our home state of Colorado, I am curious to know what percentage Biden got in Jason Crow's district. No districts changed hands compared to 2016, as Trump probably won Boebert's district by mid to high single digits. Biden probably got in the upper 50s in Perlmutter's district, broke 60% in Neguse's district, and received over 70% in DeGette's district, while Trump probably got ~60% in Buck's district and in the upper 50s in Lamborn's district.

Probably mid-upper 50s.
Biden did really well here and was obliterated everywhere.
I’m guessing that if Douglas County as a whole was so close, he probably even got close to winning the DougCo part of the district.
I am eager for Colorado precinct data.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328135280222736384

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I’m guessing that if Douglas County as a whole was so close, he probably even got close to winning the DougCo part of the district.
I am eager for Colorado precinct data.

Biden probably won it outright. Isn't that the most Dem-favoring area of the county? It looks like Crow won it 49-48 according to the NYT.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328135280222736384

Why do you suppose that is, VAR? (As in why did AR-03 shift comparatively leftwards from 2016?)

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328135280222736384

Why do you suppose that is, VAR? (As in why did AR-03 shift comparatively leftwards from 2016?)

Urban-Rural divide. I bet you MO-7 also shifted towards Biden and soon will be less red than MO-6.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Wasserman has a thread about this, of which this is the ending summary:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328223336481103875

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328135280222736384

Why do you suppose that is, VAR? (As in why did AR-03 shift comparatively leftwards from 2016?)

Northwest Arkansas/Fayetteville metro swung to Clinton in 2016 as well. This year, Washington County, which includes Fayetteville, went from Trump +10 to Trump +4. Suburban Benton County went from Trump +34 to Trump +26. The rurals didn't swing R nearly enough, which is why it shifted 7% leftwards.

Little Rock suburbs (AR-02), though, barely swung to Biden.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328135280222736384

Why do you suppose that is, VAR? (As in why did AR-03 shift comparatively leftwards from 2016?)

Northwest Arkansas/Fayetteville metro swung to Clinton in 2016 as well. This year, Washington County, which includes Fayetteville, went from Trump +10 to Trump +4. Suburban Benton County went from Trump +34 to Trump +26. The rurals didn't swing R nearly enough, which is why it shifted 7% leftwards.

Little Rock suburbs (AR-02), though, barely swung to Biden.

If Arkansas Republicans are smart, they'll split Benton and Washington counties in the new map and prevent the district from becoming even possibly competative by the end of the 2020's.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328399126493601794

If this is accurate, then Richard Hudson underperformed Trump in NC-08.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328399126493601794

If this is accurate, then Richard Hudson underperformed Trump in NC-08.

Not surprising honestly.  That area has really strong ancestral Dem streak downballot.  This area of NC is surprisingly industrial and experiencing the same trends as eastern OH, northern WI, etc. 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1328399126493601794

If this is accurate, then Richard Hudson underperformed Trump in NC-08.

Not surprising honestly.  That area has really strong ancestral Dem streak downballot.  This area of NC is surprisingly industrial and experiencing the same trends as eastern OH, northern WI, etc. 

Plus Cabarrus County is the most Dem friendly suburban/exurban county in the Charlotte area. Will probably go Democratic by the end of the 2020's.

[VAR]

Biden lost FL-25 by 22 points. Trump +2 in 2016.

[lfromnj]

Biden lost FL-25 by 22 points. Trump +2 in 2016.

Infact the Collier portion of the district which was the only thing that kept it red in 2016 is now the most blue part of it.

[VAR]

PA-08: Trump +4.4

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1328559867775356928

[VAR]

OK, it seems Trump did win TX-23, but by only 2%. Biden won the Bexar portion by 4.4%, Trump won it by 3 in 2016 IIRC.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1328564452199895040

[Roll Roons]

OK, it seems Trump did win TX-23, but by only 2%. Biden won the Bexar portion by 4.4%, Trump won it by 3 in 2016 IIRC.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1328564452199895040

Hillary won TX-23. Hurd, Katko and Fitz were the only Clinton district Republicans after 2018.

[VAR]

OK, it seems Trump did win TX-23, but by only 2%. Biden won the Bexar portion by 4.4%, Trump won it by 3 in 2016 IIRC.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1328564452199895040

Hillary won TX-23. Hurd, Katko and Fitz were the only Clinton district Republicans after 2018.

I was referring to the Bexar portion, which is basically San Antonio suburbs, not the entire district.