NV-SEN 2022: Roll the Dice

[Not Me, Us]

There was no doubt about a 51)50 in my mind it was always GA, UT, WI, OH and NC, it's gonna be a 51)49 Sen we are gonna win the runoff

OC, if anyone has been vindicated by this election, it’s you.

[Yoda]

It's really hard to get a thought in on the main congressional results thread, so just wanted to point out that Ralston was just on MSNBC and said Clark mail ballots are going 60-40 for CCM, AND that more ballots will be coming in until Saturday that were postmarked by Tuesday. So we could be looking at tens of thousands of heavily D leaning votes that have yet to come in yet. The dooming of CCM is way premature; she's likely favored.

[Ferguson97]

There was no doubt about a 51)50 in my mind it was always GA, UT, WI, OH and NC, it's gonna be a 51)49 Sen we are gonna win the runoff

OC, if anyone has been vindicated by this election, it’s you.

Didn't he basically nail the 2020 election too?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

There was no doubt about a 51)50 in my mind it was always GA, UT, WI, OH and NC, it's gonna be a 51)49 Sen we are gonna win the runoff

OC, if anyone has been vindicated by this election, it’s you.

Didn't he basically nail the 2020 election too?

Yes. The only state he wasn't sure about was Georgia.

[Dani Rose]

There was no doubt about a 51)50 in my mind it was always GA, UT, WI, OH and NC, it's gonna be a 51)49 Sen we are gonna win the runoff

OC, if anyone has been vindicated by this election, it’s you.

Didn't he basically nail the 2020 election too?

Yes. The only state he wasn't sure about was Georgia.

I don't understand a single word he says, but I support his right to say it. You go, Funky Gibberish Man.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Noticed Laxalt’s margin went up from 18k to 19k in the last 2-3 hours with the most recent dump on NYT. (Pretty sure this wasn’t from Clark County, total vote count there hasn’t changed.) Went from 78% to 79%


edit: selected CNN exit poll crosstabs- partisanship suggests D+0.50 (consistent with Ralston’s prediction) but race suggests R+0.18. They also suggest CCM is winning 2020 nonvoters even though Laxalt is winning 2020 voters.

18-24: CCM 64-31 [6%]
25-29: CCM 67-31 [6%] (ayy most D age group)
30-39: CCM 60-38 [12%]
40-49: CCM 50-45 15%]
50-64: Laxalt 56-41 [29%]
65+: Laxalt 56-42 [32%]

18-29: CCM 64-31 [12%]
30-44: CCM 60-36 [20%]
45-64: Laxalt 57-41 [36%]
65+: Laxalt 56-42 [32%]

D: CCM 96-4 [34%]
R: Laxalt 93-5 [36%]
I: CCM 48-45 [30%]

Lib: CCM 94-4 [23%]
Mod: CCM 57-39 [42%]
Con: Laxalt 89-9 [35%]

White: Laxalt 58-40 [67%]
Black: CCM 83-14 [11%]
Latino: CCM 62-33 [12%]
Asian: CCM 57-43 [4%]
Other: CCM 48-44 [5%]
Nonwhite: CCM 66-30 [33%]

Biden: CCM 92-7 [44%]
Trump: Laxalt 96-3 [44%]
Another candidate: [3%]
Did not vote: [7%]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Noticed Laxalt’s margin went up from 18k to 19k in the last 2-3 hours with the most recent dump on NYT. (Pretty sure this wasn’t from Clark County, total vote count there hasn’t changed.) Went from 78% to 79%

Not Washoe either according to NBC's votes-remaining tracker.

[Yoda]

Noticed Laxalt’s margin went up from 18k to 19k in the last 2-3 hours with the most recent dump on NYT. (Pretty sure this wasn’t from Clark County, total vote count there hasn’t changed.) Went from 78% to 79%

Not Washoe either according to NBC's votes-remaining tracker.

There was still about 3K out in rurals. Saw Ralston say it a few hours ago.

[kph14]

On the CNN tracker, CCM takes the lead in Washoe gaining around 5k in a batch of 14k mail ballots. You could almost call the race for her

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590581910442741760

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden already said that GA is gonna be won by Ds, Obama and Abrams are gonna campaign for Warnock it's gonna be 51/49 S and Manchin is the most endangered incumbent next time

[Yoda]

Yeh this is over. Ralston is now saying that CCM could carry the remaining mail ballots by only 55-35 and still win. She's carrying them 65-30 currently. Congrats to the Reid Machine for pulling out another one.

[Blair]

For all the takes about Barnet being weak I can see a very fair argument that a much better republican senate candidate could have won this race- especially when you look at the Governors race where the GOP had the type of senate candidate they use to run in tight races.

[Del Tachi]

NV blue balling Republicans yet again!

NV always had a reputation for bad polls.  I wasn’t hearing it a lot this year, but it was always a possibility Republicans were being vastly overestimated here.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Yeh this is over. Ralston is now saying that CCM could carry the remaining mail ballots by only 55-35 and still win. She's carrying them 65-30 currently. Congrats to the Reid Machine for pulling out another one.

No one pulls it out like the Reid Machine

[wbrocks67]

If those exits are basically right, it also confirms that most pollsters really flopped with Independents again. Most polls had Laxalt winning Ind/Other heavily.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

CCM down less than 1,000 with over 25k left in Clark.

And those ballots Clark just released that were 63% CCM by definition have to be day-of dropbox votes, right?  Or at least the vast majority of them?  If true, this looks like game over for Laxalt.

He'd have to outright win the remaining Washoe votes by a couple thousand at this point to win, I think. Not happening.

And now we await precinct level results once the smoke clears. Very curious what happened with Latinos and Asians in the Las Vegas Valley. ¡La lucha sigue!

I’ve barely stepped foot in my home state since 2020 so I’m not as familiar with anecdotes but I’d like to see evidence of hospitality dependent areas shifting R’s in other states before I blame the Nevada results on the pandemic. Possible the Hispanics or WWC are continuing to shift R relative to 2018/2020 and it won’t just snap back easily.

Curious what if any shift there was among Filipinos, they're the largest Asian group (by a significant margin!) in NV. Wonder if there's also data for HI transplants, Vegas isn't called "The 9th Island" for nothing.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

RALSTON SELF-IMMOLATION CANCELLED

[Figueira]

So much for Memerson being the gold standard but only in Nevada.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

The Recommend feature is an integral (if wholly ineffectual) feature of the war that Atlas user IndyRep has been waging for several years. Even with his frequent use of this means of imposing his 'Safe R Nevada' narrative on us, the persistent warrior doesn't have much left in the face of recurrent defeats, as Republicans remain incapable of breaking through in this inelastic, predictably blue state. I, as the leader of the blue NV forces in this war, nonetheless humbly recommend granting clemency in his case. Let IndyRep "keep playing," it won’t change the fact that victory is ours.

[here2view]

Titanium Tilt D Nevada remains

[Dr. MB]

You seem to be implying that we should take Ralston's word as gospel and immediately declare Masto the winner in Nevada.

What an interesting thing to read into my post! Let me help you out - you are mistaken.

I am not. People on here are reacting precisely as I would have expected. We might as well call the election as over now and say that Democrats have the Senate and possibly the House as well. Republicans are going to significantly underperform tomorrow, and are going to be rejected by voters because of 1/6, Trump, and Dobbs. That's what people on here firmly and sincerely believe.

You sir are a prophet

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

While I love the Harry Reid memes, this election kinda serves as proof that the "Reid machine" isn't real and more of the Democratic success in Nevada can probably be attributed to the culinary union. At the very least, progressives cannot be blamed for defeat after they took control from people who were perhaps more personally or professionally acquainted with Harry Reid. And it's not because CCM has special appeal to DSAers. Good coordination of resources is irrelevant to who the state party heads supported in the last primary. Yes, Sisolak lost because lockdown policies were hard on small tourist businesses* and I believe a scandal was mentioned somewhere?

*Supposedly, because this sure wasn't a problem anywhere else with a Democratic governor unless you want to count Hochul's disaster of a win.

[YE]

While I love the Harry Reid memes, this election kinda serves as proof that the "Reid machine" isn't real and more of the Democratic success in Nevada can probably be attributed to the culinary union. At the very least, progressives cannot be blamed for defeat after they took control from people who were perhaps more personally or professionally acquainted with Harry Reid. And it's not because CCM has special appeal to DSAers. Good coordination of resources is irrelevant to who the state party heads supported in the last primary. Yes, Sisolak lost because lockdown policies were hard on small tourist businesses* and I believe a scandal was mentioned somewhere?

*Supposedly, because this sure wasn't a problem anywhere else with a Democratic governor unless you want to count Hochul's disaster of a win.

The Culinary Union is the core part of the “Reid machine” so yes it is real. The DSA’s running the state party are irrelevant and D’s used the Washoe Dem party to coordinate funds.

[Spectator]

Any votes remaining to be counted? Margin is just shy of 1%.