NV-SEN 2022: Roll the Dice

[VAR]

Discuss.

[SnowLabrador]

Cortez Masto is definitely vulnerable. Depending on Biden's popularity or lack thereof, I think it's a tossup at best in a midterm environment, Lean R with Sandoval (although I don't think he'll run). Since Biden only carried Nevada by a couple of points, and Hispanics seem to be trending rightward nationwide, this one worries me.

[GALeftist]

Eh, I still think CCM is probably favored without Sandoval; she doesn't seem unpopular or anything, and the NV GOP doesn't exactly inspire confidence. I guess the closest analogue for this race might be 2010? Obviously Reid was the Majority Leader at the time, and Angle wasn't exactly a good candidate, but the Democrats in Nevada have proven that they can win races in unfavorable years numerous times in the past. Lean D for now, closer to Tossup than Likely.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably begin as Tilt D

On the one hand : plausible bad climate for democrats + closely divided state

On the other hand : a very inflexible and high enough D floor + Harry Reid political machine + a scandal free incumbent

[SevenEleven]

Lol. Safe D.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. Safe D.

If your prediction is as much accurate than your presidential ones Cortez Masto is doomed.

[SevenEleven]

Lol. Safe D.

If your prediction is as much accurate than your presidential ones Cortez Masto is doomed.

W/e.

[Lognog]

Toss-up. Thankfully though, Republicans don't have a bench here

[Xing]

Unless Sandoval runs, Masto is probably favored though not safe. Democrats are pretty good at getting their voters out in midterms here (2014 was an exception for obvious reasons), so I'm not sure a good year for Republicans would be enough to flip this seat. I don't see it flipping before AZ, and it definitely doesn't flip before NH.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Titanium Tilt D.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324818843206778880

Sandoval probably won't run.

[LimoLiberal]

Danny Tarkanian for Senate please

[Red Wall]

Lean R

[Tekken_Guy]

Does Mark Amodei sound like a good opponent?

[tosk]

Does Mark Amodei sound like a good opponent?

...maybe?

He's the most relevant republican who could run but if I was on his team I'd tell him to stick to his house seat.

Republicans will probably run some state senator or maybe laxalt. Although I'd like to win the seat so maybe laxalt should be stuffed away somewhere. We could always throw Rick Harrison at CCM and see what happens.

[I need an explanation]

Barbara Cegavske should run.

[GALeftist]

Barbara Cegavske should run.

Seems more likely to surrender the SoS spot than to snag the senate seat.

[Kuumo]

Lean D. Nevada Republicans don't have much of a bench, and the Reid machine seems to turn out Democrats in Clark County even in most midterm elections. If CCM runs a strong campaign, she should win narrowly.

[JMT]

I'll say Lean D for now, simply because CCM is a good candidate, and you can't beat someone with no one (Nevada Republicans don't really have a great bench here). But this race could certainly change to tossup (or even Lean R) depending on who the Republicans nominate, and what the national environment looks like (I expect it to be a good Republican national environment given it'll be a Biden midterm).

Sandoval puts this race at Lean R, but I doubt he runs (if he had wanted to run for Senate, he would've done it in 2016). Apparently he is not interested in DC at all, and he recently started a new job in October 2020 as President of the University of Nevada, Reno, so I doubt he leaves that post so early to run.

So I'm not really sure who runs for Republicans. Maybe Cegavske, Amodei, or Laxalt? Maybe Dean Heller attempts a comeback? We can also never rule out a run from Danny Tarkanian, who actually finally won an election this year (he was elected as a Douglas County Commissioner).

[Octowakandi]

Heller's dream job is Governor so he's not running for this again. He may not even run for Governor as Sisolak isn't really vulnerable most likely. I think Laxalt makes the most sense if we imagine Trump will still be an influence with TRUMP TV on full blast, rallying candidates. The two have a very good relationship (Laxalt led the Trump campaign in Nevada) and the guy is clearly ambitious and talented. So I'd say he's the frontrunner right now. But someone more plugged into NV GOP politics should speak up.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP challenger comes out of the private sector. The NVGOP bench is really weak and Vegas probably has some millionaire wanting the job.

[Yellowhammer]

Toss-up. Thankfully though, Republicans don't have a bench here

Amodei, Cegavske, Laxalt, Sandoval just to name a few

Anyway, pure tossup for now.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Toss-up. Thankfully though, Republicans don't have a bench here

Amodei, Cegavske, Laxalt, Sandoval just to name a few

Anyway, pure tossup for now.

Would Amodei really want to abandon his House seat for this? It seems risky.

[RRusso1982]

Cortez Masto is safe against anyone whose name isn't Brian Sandoval.

[Xing]

Toss-up. Thankfully though, Republicans don't have a bench here

Amodei, Cegavske, Laxalt, Sandoval just to name a few

Anyway, pure tossup for now.

Laxalt would be an incredible gift to Masto.