AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel
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  AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel  (Read 44031 times)
MargieCat
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« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2021, 03:06:35 PM »

I thought Ducey for awhile. But Trump destroyed his chances.

I think Andy Biggs will run against Kelly.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2021, 03:47:41 PM »

It goes without saying, but the sweet spot for this race is a generic center right conservative. I don’t really know if said person exists or can survive a primary here, however.

I’ve become more of a Ducey doubter with time - both because he has been incompetent and if he does survive a primary (a tall order, IMO) he will come out significantly bloodied. So I dunno if he really ends up being much better than a Gosar, tbh.

Still the race in my mind is a tossup. It’s hard to suss out if the Ds actually have a slight advantage during midterms now, with the educated suburban shift.

I think that this is absolutely the right take. Arizona should be the GOP's #1 pick-up opportunity, but I honestly think they are poised to nominate Kelli Ward and just sink it.

Also the observation about educated voters is spot-on and why I don't think 2022 is gonna be a wave, unless somehow 70% of Republicans stop deciding white supremacist terrorisms is their #1 goal between now and the next election lol
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #27 on: January 22, 2021, 05:48:30 PM »

The AZ GOP Bench died with John McCain, Biggs and Gosar are far-right lunatics and Ducey doesn't have Trump's support anymore.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2021, 02:07:40 PM »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #29 on: January 23, 2021, 02:09:23 PM »



Bullock also denied it for a while. But we all know how that ended for him.
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swf541
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« Reply #30 on: January 23, 2021, 03:28:00 PM »

And the self immolation of the AZ GOP continues
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Skunk
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« Reply #31 on: January 23, 2021, 04:47:36 PM »

The key difference between Bullock and Ducey is that Bullock was by far the strongest candidate and heavily sought after by national Democrats. Ducey isn't liked by the Republican base and especially by Ward's GOP, so they aren't going to want to badger him to jump in like MT Dems and Schumer did with Bullock.

And if Ducey changes his mind and jumps in he might not win a primary anyway.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #32 on: January 23, 2021, 04:54:23 PM »

I believe that Ducey was going to run and changed his mind after Trump turned on him.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #33 on: January 23, 2021, 06:51:21 PM »

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Coldstream
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« Reply #34 on: January 24, 2021, 06:41:08 AM »



Didn’t Rick Scott leave it till the last minute to get in in 2018? It’s not the worst tactic for an incumbent Governor.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #35 on: January 24, 2021, 10:36:46 AM »

Assuming Ducey keeps his word here, I'd move this from Likely R to Tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: January 24, 2021, 10:39:49 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2021, 10:44:01 AM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

So much for PROGRESSIVE MODERATE DREAM R MAP, DUCEY WAS JUST CENSURED BY THE AZ GOP, AZ IS LIKELY D




53-47 looks like a real possibility
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #37 on: January 24, 2021, 12:10:20 PM »

I don't believe Ducey can win back Arizona GOP primary voters, and if he somehow does then I think that makes him even less likely to beat Mark Kelly. He's easily attackable from all sides now that he's (wrongly and hilariously) seen as an anti-Trump Republican and with one of the worst responses in the country he doesn't even have the credibility on COVID that someone like DeWine or Sununu has. The fact that Ducey is among Arizona Republicans' best hope at taking down Mark Kelly, one of the few Democrats to outperform Biden in a fast-trending D state, should worry the GOP.

That said, until we have more polling and information, I won't rate this as anything other than tossup, but he doesn't seem especially more vulnerable than Warnock at this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #38 on: January 24, 2021, 12:21:47 PM »

This is good news for Ds
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #39 on: April 08, 2021, 03:11:32 AM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: April 08, 2021, 04:15:09 AM »

Kelly was never endangered unless Ducey challenged him, only Progressive Moderate had Kelly losing on his R favored map
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Pericles
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« Reply #41 on: April 08, 2021, 04:48:23 AM »

Not bad for him, but it doesn't mean much. If 2022 is a (non-Atlas) red wave and the Republican isn't toxic, Kelly will be swamped regardless, and if Biden governs well that will be what saves him not fundraising. Though as Bill Nelson shows, everything can be decisive-it just probably won't.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: April 08, 2021, 05:55:27 AM »

Nelson lost by .5 to Rick Scott, Kelly isn't running against Ducey he is running against Briggs

Scott was much more popular than he is now
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #43 on: April 08, 2021, 05:58:56 AM »

Pretty good numbers, but it means next to nothing, as Pericles said.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #44 on: April 08, 2021, 09:15:04 AM »

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Xing
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« Reply #45 on: April 08, 2021, 01:27:22 PM »


It’ll be a shame when he inevitably loses by 0.12% in 2028, though.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #46 on: April 08, 2021, 01:37:59 PM »

I get that Atlas memes are a thing & all, but let's not act like this is completely meaningless: the earlier that money (let alone this much) is donated, the more useful it is, & sometimes, just the sheer size of a war-chest can manage to successfully scare away some potential challengers.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #47 on: April 08, 2021, 01:55:03 PM »

I guess he also has a leftover on his campaign's bank account from 2020, when he was already raising insane amounts of money? While it's a good sign for energy on the ground, it doesn't mean Kelly is a shoe in for reelection. But given his solid approval ratings, the state's general trend and the direction as well as candidate bench of the Arizona Republican Party, Kelly should be favored for getting a full term. Lean Democratic for now.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #48 on: April 08, 2021, 02:31:11 PM »

It’ll be a shame when he inevitably loses by 0.12% in 2028, though.

Ducey is term-limited, though. Who (other than Ducey) is formidable enough to take on Kelly in 2028? Remember, in case you didn’t notice, this is the AZ GOP we’re talking about here. They’ll likely blow AZ-GOV in 2022 by nominating some crazy lunatic like Ward or Biggs, so they won’t even have an incumbent Republican governor to run against Kelly in 2028, and that means they’ll face an uphill battle that year for sure. Maybe they run some reasonable, sane Republican in 2034, but by then the state will be solidly Democratic, so it wouldn’t matter.
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Storr
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« Reply #49 on: April 08, 2021, 06:11:51 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2021, 06:18:40 PM by Storr »

It’ll be a shame when he inevitably loses by 0.12% in 2028, though.

Ducey is term-limited, though. Who (other than Ducey) is formidable enough to take on Kelly in 2028? Remember, in case you didn’t notice, this is the AZ GOP we’re talking about here. They’ll likely blow AZ-GOV in 2022 by nominating some crazy lunatic like Ward or Biggs, so they won’t even have an incumbent Republican governor to run against Kelly in 2028, and that means they’ll face an uphill battle that year for sure. Maybe they run some reasonable, sane Republican in 2034, but by then the state will be solidly Democratic, so it wouldn’t matter.
Going through the current Republican MoC's from Arizona:

Gosar: no explanation needed

Biggs: voted against funding the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund (Gosar also voted against funding it)

Lesko: doesn't have any problems that stand out other than being very Trumpy (spoke at the Trump Tulsa rally, is a Freedom Caucus member, signed the amicus brief in support of Texas v. Pennsylvania, etc.) which will not be the most useful thing when running statewide in what is now a purple state.

Schweikert: Reprimanded by the House in 2020 for 11 violations, the worst being a fake $100k loan his 2012 reelection campaign reported in order to make his war-chest look more intimidating.
(not important, but: is it just me or does he have a weirdly proportioned face?)
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