I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.
When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?
Nah it looks more like 1892 than 1896
Likable, friendly, and "safe" establishment candidate running "front porch campaign" defeats fiery populist who drives massive rural support. There is major change in coalitions. Turnout is extremely high. Popular vote margin is a bit over 4 points.
Pretty clearly 1896.
Ehh McKinley coalition didn’t change much from previous republican era coalition, he just refreshed it for a new generation.
The 1892 comparison works as democrats who had spent the 1880s making gains in republican urban areas and the demographic changes throughout the decade seemed to favor the democrats as well but in 1888 the democrats were defeated in a surprise defeat but in 1892 it looked liked democrats could finally get their chance to realign the electorate but a closer than expected victory exposed vulnerabilities.
Then in 1896 republicans were able to finally make break through with immigrant groups , plus the populist left took over the party from the Bourbon(today “neoliberal” wing) of the party but were unable to make gains with industrial workers while seeing their gains in the cities evaporate and led to a domiant republican era .
Similarly today the more “neoliberal wing” of the party seems in control but it’s pretty clear that a huge part of their base is desperate to change it and 2024 could be your 1896 where a left wing populist grabs control of the Democrats and it results in them unable to make any gains with working class voters but results them in collapsing in trending suburban areas leading to a republican led realignment.
Also turnout in 1892 was insanely high too
Poll
