When will the GOP win again?
Heebie Jeebie:
Quote from: Roll Roons on November 08, 2020, 01:23:10 AM
Quote from: Heebie Jeebie on November 08, 2020, 01:04:06 AM
The problem for Republicans is Texas. Democrats were rightfully disappointed that Texas wasn't closer this year, but zoom out a little and the trend lines are still looking good! In 2012, Romney won by 16%. In 2016, Trump won by 9%. This year, it's going to be around 6%, with unprecedented turnout. If Biden is a successful president, and Texas continues to urbanize, and turnout returns to the mean, Texas will go blue--by 2024 possibly, but certainly by 2028. Once that happens, how do Republicans win the electoral college?
Republicans need to nominate someone who threads the needle between firing up the Trumpy base and not alienating the suburbs. I'm sure there's someone out there who can do it, but the person who best fits this description was pre-Bridgegate Chris Christie.
They should also hope that Democrats nominate someone unpalatable, which is definitely not out of the question. Given how close the election ended up being in the critical states, it's possible that Biden was the only candidate who could have won this year.
All you say is true, but it's hard to see how either of these things actually happens. For obvious reasons, I think Trump had unique ability to fire up the Trumpy base that we're not likely to see imitated for a long time to come. He had been a prominent cultural and media figure for decades before entering politics, with a deeply ingrained (and false) image as a genius businessman and powerful leader. Who's out there who could pull that off again? As for the Democrats, Harris will obviously be the nominee after Biden, and given four (or maybe eight) years as a competent VP she'll be rightly seen as a standard, palatable candidate perfectly acceptable (if not preferable) to a majority of voters.
Medal506:
Quote from: Chips on November 08, 2020, 12:27:45 AM
2024 is winnable assuming a good Republican runs and Biden is not the nominee. 2028 is a more reasonable assumption though. 2032 if Harris wins in 2024 and is popular enough to win in 2028 but I can't see it being later than 2032. I went with 2028.
I agree with this statement. I think Biden is a lot more electable than people give him credit. The only person I can see beating Biden is probably Ron DeSantis.
However, if its Kamala Harris, I think Republicans will win.
Medal506:
Quote from: Chips on November 08, 2020, 12:44:23 AM
I will say this. For the GOP to win again they will have to nominate a populist but not an overly crazy one like Trump was. If they do that, They could put back together the 2016 map and also have a chance to put states like Nevada, New Mexico and Minnesota in play.
They need to nominate Ron DeSantis or Josh Hawley. Josh Hawley is a fake populist though sadly.
Ferguson97:
2032.
Harris vs. Pence in 2024 is basically inevitable. Harris will defeat him by similar margins as Biden, and then narrowly win re-election in 2028. Some currently unknown Republican wins 2032 in an Obama-2012 level of victory.
RINO Tom:
Quote from: Taking the D out of Driftless :( on November 08, 2020, 01:06:26 AM
I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.
When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?
You think the GOP is going to lose one fewer election in a row than it did after literally being blamed for the Great Depression?
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