When will the GOP win again?
Chips:
2024 is winnable assuming a good Republican runs and Biden is not the nominee. 2028 is a more reasonable assumption though. 2032 if Harris wins in 2024 and is popular enough to win in 2028 but I can't see it being later than 2032. I went with 2028.
Chips:
I will say this. For the GOP to win again they will have to nominate a populist but not an overly crazy one like Trump was. If they do that, They could put back together the 2016 map and also have a chance to put states like Nevada, New Mexico and Minnesota in play.
Heebie Jeebie:
The problem for Republicans is Texas. Democrats were rightfully disappointed that Texas wasn't closer this year, but zoom out a little and the trend lines are still looking good! In 2012, Romney won by 16%. In 2016, Trump won by 9%. This year, it's going to be around 6%, with unprecedented turnout. If Biden is a successful president, and Texas continues to urbanize, and turnout returns to the mean, Texas will go blue--by 2024 possibly, but certainly by 2028. Once that happens, how do Republicans win the electoral college?
Hope For A New Era:
I'm a bit too fond of these cycle theories.
When 2020 looked like 1980, I would have said 2032, but now 2020 seems to be looking a lot more like 1896 than 1980. So...2036?
Roll Roons:
Quote from: Heebie Jeebie on November 08, 2020, 01:04:06 AM
The problem for Republicans is Texas. Democrats were rightfully disappointed that Texas wasn't closer this year, but zoom out a little and the trend lines are still looking good! In 2012, Romney won by 16%. In 2016, Trump won by 9%. This year, it's going to be around 6%, with unprecedented turnout. If Biden is a successful president, and Texas continues to urbanize, and turnout returns to the mean, Texas will go blue--by 2024 possibly, but certainly by 2028. Once that happens, how do Republicans win the electoral college?
Republicans need to nominate someone who threads the needle between firing up the Trumpy base and not alienating the suburbs. I'm sure there's someone out there who can do it, but the person who best fits this description was pre-Bridgegate Chris Christie, and he's obviously no longer viable.
They should also hope that Democrats nominate someone unpalatable, which is definitely not out of the question. Given how close the election ended up being in the critical states, it's possible that Biden was the only candidate who could have won this year.
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