Largest city in each state that Trump won

[Wormless Gourd]

Arizona- #3- MESA- TRUMP HOLD

2020:

Biden:     108,396      (43.7%)         +10.2% Trump     (+6.1% DEM Swing)
Trump:    133,673      (53.9%)
Misc:          5,765       ( 2.3%)
Total:      247,948                           +34.1% increase from 2016 to 2020      

2016:

HRC:       68,370        (37.0%)        +16.5% Trump
Trump:    99,022        (53.5%)
Misc:       17,569        ( 9.5%)  
Total:     184,961

I think alot about how Mesa, AZ is larger then Atlanta, Minneapolis, Cincinatti, Cleveland and Sacramento.

[NOVA Green]

Arizona- #3- MESA- TRUMP HOLD

2020:

Biden:     108,396      (43.7%)         +10.2% Trump     (+6.1% DEM Swing)
Trump:    133,673      (53.9%)
Misc:          5,765       ( 2.3%)
Total:      247,948                           +34.1% increase from 2016 to 2020      

2016:

HRC:       68,370        (37.0%)        +16.5% Trump
Trump:    99,022        (53.5%)
Misc:       17,569        ( 9.5%)  
Total:     184,961

I think alot about how Mesa, AZ is larger then Atlanta, Minneapolis, Cincinatti, Cleveland and Sacramento.

Welcome to the Forum!!!

Yeah it's actually kind of trippy that a City of this size is not on the national radar at all... (Obviously Atlas being Atlas we geek out on these types of stats...     )

Mesa has long been known as a Mormon Stronghold, where the members of the faith were able to successfully create a community, which for decades had been persecuted as a "cult" at the hands of Evangelical Christians, who were forced to flee Missouri at the hands of the mob to seek refuge elsewhere to find a new home, against the forces of religious intolerance and bigotry.

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics/state/arizona

In a few articles from 2014-2015, it was claimed that only 15% of the City Population was Mormon...

https://www.myarizonainjurylawyers.com/mesa-the-most-conservative-city-in-america/

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/09/mesa-arizona-are-conservative-cities-better-111069

Precinct results from Mesa 2016 to 2020 should be interesting...

[mileslunn]

For Montana, I can confirm it is Billings.  Its also largest city in state too.

Trump: 34,562 (56.27%)
Biden: 24,695 (40.21%)
Total: 61,417

[mileslunn]

Probably Fort Wayne for Indiana, but Biden may have narrowly won it. After Fort Wayne it would be Noblesville, given that Biden won Carmel and Fishers by very narrow margins.

Biden did narrowly win Fort Wayne 50% to 47%

Of states this is what I have

Alabama: Hoover? (Might be Tuscaloosa, but probably Hoover but need confirmation)
Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Shelton
Delaware: ?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Not sure, but think Valdosta
Hawaii: Laie (not sure but I believe it was this)
Idaho: Meridian
Illinois: Orland Park
Indiana: Muncie (not certain, but likely this one)
Iowa: Sioux City
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro (possibly Bowling Green, but I think Owensboro)
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Westminster (not certain but looks like it)
Massachusetts: Dracut
Michigan: Sterling Heights
Minnesota: Lakeville
Mississippi: Southaven (not certain on this)
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Lakewood
New Mexico: Rio Rancho (not certain on this)
New York: North Tonowanda (not 100% certain on this)
North Carolina: Concord (not certain as don't split absentee by precinct)
North Dakota: Bismarck
Ohio: Parma
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: Coventry
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Tennessee: Johnson City (might be Murfreesboro have to double check)
Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)
Utah: Provo
Vermont: Highgate
Virginia: Salem? (Largest independent city, not sure if larger of those within county)
Washington: Spokane Valley
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

[Sailor Haumea]

Probably Fort Wayne for Indiana, but Biden may have narrowly won it. After Fort Wayne it would be Noblesville, given that Biden won Carmel and Fishers by very narrow margins.

Biden did narrowly win Fort Wayne 50% to 47%

Of states this is what I have

Alabama: Hoover? (Might be Tuscaloosa, but probably Hoover but need confirmation)
Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Shelton
Delaware: ?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Not sure, but think Valdosta
Hawaii: Laie (not sure but I believe it was this)
Idaho: Meridian
Illinois: Orland Park
Indiana: Muncie (not certain, but likely this one)
Iowa: Sioux City
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro (possibly Bowling Green, but I think Owensboro)
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Westminster (not certain but looks like it)
Massachusetts: Dracut
Michigan: Sterling Heights
Minnesota: Lakeville
Mississippi: Southaven (not certain on this)
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Lakewood
New Mexico: Rio Rancho (not certain on this)
New York: North Tonowanda (not 100% certain on this)
North Carolina: Concord (not certain as don't split absentee by precinct)
North Dakota: Bismarck
Ohio: Parma
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: Coventry
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Tennessee: Johnson City (might be Murfreesboro have to double check)
Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)
Utah: Provo
Vermont: Highgate
Virginia: Salem? (Largest independent city, not sure if larger of those within county)
Washington: Spokane Valley
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Clinton won Muncie by a few points, so it's unlikely Biden lost it. Valdosta appears to be narrowly Biden based on precinct results.

[forsythvoter]

Probably Fort Wayne for Indiana, but Biden may have narrowly won it. After Fort Wayne it would be Noblesville, given that Biden won Carmel and Fishers by very narrow margins.

Biden did narrowly win Fort Wayne 50% to 47%

Of states this is what I have

Alabama: Hoover? (Might be Tuscaloosa, but probably Hoover but need confirmation)
Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Shelton
Delaware: ?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Not sure, but think Valdosta
Hawaii: Laie (not sure but I believe it was this)
Idaho: Meridian
Illinois: Orland Park
Indiana: Muncie (not certain, but likely this one)
Iowa: Sioux City
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro (possibly Bowling Green, but I think Owensboro)
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Westminster (not certain but looks like it)
Massachusetts: Dracut
Michigan: Sterling Heights
Minnesota: Lakeville
Mississippi: Southaven (not certain on this)
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Lakewood
New Mexico: Rio Rancho (not certain on this)
New York: North Tonowanda (not 100% certain on this)
North Carolina: Concord (not certain as don't split absentee by precinct)
North Dakota: Bismarck
Ohio: Parma
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: Coventry
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Tennessee: Johnson City (might be Murfreesboro have to double check)
Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)
Utah: Provo
Vermont: Highgate
Virginia: Salem? (Largest independent city, not sure if larger of those within county)
Washington: Spokane Valley
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Clinton won Muncie by a few points, so it's unlikely Biden lost it. Valdosta appears to be narrowly Biden based on precinct results.

I'm pretty sure for Georgia, it's Milton in North Fulton County, which Trump won 54-45.

[mileslunn]

Probably Fort Wayne for Indiana, but Biden may have narrowly won it. After Fort Wayne it would be Noblesville, given that Biden won Carmel and Fishers by very narrow margins.

Biden did narrowly win Fort Wayne 50% to 47%

Of states this is what I have

Alabama: Hoover? (Might be Tuscaloosa, but probably Hoover but need confirmation)
Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Shelton
Delaware: ?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Not sure, but think Valdosta
Hawaii: Laie (not sure but I believe it was this)
Idaho: Meridian
Illinois: Orland Park
Indiana: Muncie (not certain, but likely this one)
Iowa: Sioux City
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro (possibly Bowling Green, but I think Owensboro)
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Westminster (not certain but looks like it)
Massachusetts: Dracut
Michigan: Sterling Heights
Minnesota: Lakeville
Mississippi: Southaven (not certain on this)
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Lakewood
New Mexico: Rio Rancho (not certain on this)
New York: North Tonowanda (not 100% certain on this)
North Carolina: Concord (not certain as don't split absentee by precinct)
North Dakota: Bismarck
Ohio: Parma
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: Coventry
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Tennessee: Johnson City (might be Murfreesboro have to double check)
Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)
Utah: Provo
Vermont: Highgate
Virginia: Salem? (Largest independent city, not sure if larger of those within county)
Washington: Spokane Valley
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Clinton won Muncie by a few points, so it's unlikely Biden lost it. Valdosta appears to be narrowly Biden based on precinct results.

Then probably Noblesville

[mileslunn]

Probably Fort Wayne for Indiana, but Biden may have narrowly won it. After Fort Wayne it would be Noblesville, given that Biden won Carmel and Fishers by very narrow margins.

Biden did narrowly win Fort Wayne 50% to 47%

Of states this is what I have

Alabama: Hoover? (Might be Tuscaloosa, but probably Hoover but need confirmation)
Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Shelton
Delaware: ?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Not sure, but think Valdosta
Hawaii: Laie (not sure but I believe it was this)
Idaho: Meridian
Illinois: Orland Park
Indiana: Muncie (not certain, but likely this one)
Iowa: Sioux City
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro (possibly Bowling Green, but I think Owensboro)
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Westminster (not certain but looks like it)
Massachusetts: Dracut
Michigan: Sterling Heights
Minnesota: Lakeville
Mississippi: Southaven (not certain on this)
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Lakewood
New Mexico: Rio Rancho (not certain on this)
New York: North Tonowanda (not 100% certain on this)
North Carolina: Concord (not certain as don't split absentee by precinct)
North Dakota: Bismarck
Ohio: Parma
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: Coventry
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Tennessee: Johnson City (might be Murfreesboro have to double check)
Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)
Utah: Provo
Vermont: Highgate
Virginia: Salem? (Largest independent city, not sure if larger of those within county)
Washington: Spokane Valley
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Clinton won Muncie by a few points, so it's unlikely Biden lost it. Valdosta appears to be narrowly Biden based on precinct results.

I'm pretty sure for Georgia, it's Milton in North Fulton County, which Trump won 54-45.

Valdosta has more people than Milton according to 2010 census.  Now maybe 2020 census changes that.

[forsythvoter]

I'm pretty sure for Georgia, it's Milton in North Fulton County, which Trump won 54-45.

Valdosta has more people than Milton according to 2010 census.  Now maybe 2020 census changes that.

I don't think Trump won city of Valdosta though if you look at the precinct map (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=5d930a3281ad403391b1d9b3f7f9d145). It actually looks like the city itself is quite heavily Democratic with Biden winning it by around 5k or so votes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona- #3- MESA- TRUMP HOLD

2020:

Biden:     108,396      (43.7%)         +10.2% Trump     (+6.1% DEM Swing)
Trump:    133,673      (53.9%)
Misc:          5,765       ( 2.3%)
Total:      247,948                           +34.1% increase from 2016 to 2020      

2016:

HRC:       68,370        (37.0%)        +16.5% Trump
Trump:    99,022        (53.5%)
Misc:       17,569        ( 9.5%)  
Total:     184,961

I think alot about how Mesa, AZ is larger then Atlanta, Minneapolis, Cincinatti, Cleveland and Sacramento.

Definately, but AZ tends to be a tad misleading because it is generally more generous in it's city boundaries that many states, especially those on the East Coast.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)

Biden almost certainly won Plano just from what I saw eyeballing the precinct maps on election twitter.

[NOVA Green]

Probably Fort Wayne for Indiana, but Biden may have narrowly won it. After Fort Wayne it would be Noblesville, given that Biden won Carmel and Fishers by very narrow margins.

Biden did narrowly win Fort Wayne 50% to 47%

Of states this is what I have

Alabama: Hoover? (Might be Tuscaloosa, but probably Hoover but need confirmation)
Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Shelton
Delaware: ?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Not sure, but think Valdosta
Hawaii: Laie (not sure but I believe it was this)
Idaho: Meridian
Illinois: Orland Park
Indiana: Muncie (not certain, but likely this one)
Iowa: Sioux City
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro (possibly Bowling Green, but I think Owensboro)
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Westminster (not certain but looks like it)
Massachusetts: Dracut
Michigan: Sterling Heights
Minnesota: Lakeville
Mississippi: Southaven (not certain on this)
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Lakewood
New Mexico: Rio Rancho (not certain on this)
New York: North Tonowanda (not 100% certain on this)
North Carolina: Concord (not certain as don't split absentee by precinct)
North Dakota: Bismarck
Ohio: Parma
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: Coventry
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Sioux Falls
Tennessee: Johnson City (might be Murfreesboro have to double check)
Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)
Utah: Provo
Vermont: Highgate
Virginia: Salem? (Largest independent city, not sure if larger of those within county)
Washington: Spokane Valley
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Tuscaloosa voted HRC and also Biden:

SEC-West- Tuscaloosa, Alabama

This was a bit of a challenge for several reasons:

1.) I did not have a current precinct map to work off of.

2.) Some of the precinct voting locations changed between 2016 and 2020.

3.) There are possibly some split- precincts at work.

4.) Once again in Alabama we see Absentee & Provisional ballots not redistributed to the voting precincts, but instead thrown into a lump county basket.

That being said, I did not want to neglect the home of the Crimson Tide, and plus as I was already doing some work on Alabama, it seemed logical to continue, regardless of the inherent frustrations involved.

Let's start with a precinct map of Tuscaloosa County, which I had to "reverse engineer" from 2016.



Now let's look at a map of where the City Limits are located:



Here are the precincts which I coded as either City or Split Precincts. After trying to review these against City Boundaries, I have excluded precinct #24 from the City numbers as the majority of the population appears to be in unincorporated areas around Holt. The other split-precincts appear to have a significant majority of the POP within City Limits.



Tuscaloosa City 2020 GE PRES
26.8% of County Vote Share:       -7.2% 2016 > 2020

Biden:    14,988      (62.1%)        +26.0% Biden        (+1.4% Trump Swing)
Trump:     8,718      (36.1%)
Misc:          429       ( 1.8%)
Total:     24,135                          -14.1% Decrease 2016 > 2020

Tuscaloosa County (Non City) 2020 GE PRES
58.7% of County Vote Share:     -3.8% 2016 to 2020

Biden:   13,572       (25.6%)           +47.4% Trump     (+2.6% Trump Swing)
Trump:  38,649       (73.0%)
Misc:         720        ( 1.4%) 
Total:    52,941                              +2.3% 2016 > 2020

Absentee / Provisional 2020 GE PRES
14.5% of County Vote Share:        +11.0% 2016 > 2020

Biden:         9,205     (70.3%)          +41.7% Biden     (+59.3% Biden Swing '16>'20)
Trump:        3,750     (28.6%)
Misc:             141      (1.1%)
Total:        13,096                             +357.1% Increase 2016 to 2020                         


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuscaloosa City 2016 GE PRES
34.0% of County Vote Share:

HRC:       17,224     (61.3%)        +27.4% HRC
Trump:     9,527      (33.9%)
Misc:        1,357      ( 4.8%)
Total:      28,108   

Tuscaloosa County (Non City) 2016 GE PRES
62.5% of County Vote Share:

HRC:     13,419      (25.9%)           +44.8% Trump
Trump:  36,572      (70.7%)
Misc:      1,736       ( 3.4%) 
Total:    51,727

Absentee / Provisional 2016 GE PRES
3.5% of County Vote Share:

HRC:          1,119     (39.1%)          +17.6% Trump
Trump:       1,624     (56.7%)
Misc:             122      (4.3%)
Total:         2,865

How to attempt to break down the Absentee / Provisional Vote in 2020?

If we assign the 2020 Absentee / Provisional votes by the 2016 City / County / Other distribution:

Tuscaloosa would have 34.0% of County Votes in 2020= 30,658 TVs

This would add an further 2,550 votes to the City of Tuscaloosa...

If we were to uniformly assign % breakdown by City / County:

Tuscaloosa City:

Biden: + 1,793         (16,781)-   62.9%        +27.5% Biden    (+0.1% Biden Swing). 
Trump: +  729          ( 9,447)-    35.4%
Misc:    +    28          (   457)
 
Naturally it is extremely improbable that Tuscaloosa City vs Rest of County % Votes broke down uniformly and DEM % were likely much higher in the City than in the rest of County, which is pretty overwhelmingly Republican, outside of a couple small DEM precincts in Northport, plus Tuscaloosa split-precinct #24 by Holt Uninc Areas.

The frustrating part of the Unknown is that between 2016 and 2020, there were an additional 7,472 Voters (+9.0% increase from 2016 TVs), but we simultaneously had roughly a +10k increase in Absentee / Provisional Ballots not coded by precinct!

Where did these votes come from?

Still, we do have at least a few data points.

Now let's look at the 2016 and 2020 GE PRES Results with Swings, and also throw in the % Vote Change '16 to '20 to account for the dramatic increase in votes not assigned by precinct:

 

What does this all mean?

1.) It is patently clear that undergrad students at the University of Alabama swung hard Biden in 2020. Dorm Vote= Precinct #27

+18.0% DEM Swing '16 > '20.

2.) It also appears that "off-campus" student voters also swung hard Biden, looking at precincts # 28, 39, & 40.

3.) It starts to get questionable regarding Alabama African-American Swings towards Trump looking at Precincts # 36 & 37, which are part of the historical "Black Neighborhoods of Tuscaloosa"...

Miniscule swings of "same day votes", while meanwhile unknown % numbers of Absentee & Provo Ballots.

4.) Precinct # 15 stands out a bit, as it is not only the most Republican precinct in the City, but also overwhelmingly Anglo with an MHI of something like $128k/Yr, where there appears to have been a swing towards Trump, and also a significant increase in "same day" precinct votes between '16 and '20.

Went to a family wedding in that precinct way back in the mid 2010s, so it's possible that the "posh part of town" had some increase in pop '16 > '20, which might explain those variables, or could possibly be something more like Montgomery County TX, where the wealthy white Pub's liked Trump and their tax cuts too...

IDK.... especially with such a huge % of votes not assigned by precinct in 2020.


   

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)

Biden almost certainly won Plano just from what I saw eyeballing the precinct maps on election twitter.

Yeah. Biden 100% won Plano. He also almost certainly won Frisco, which is nice.

[lfromnj]

Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)

Biden almost certainly won Plano just from what I saw eyeballing the precinct maps on election twitter.

Yeah. Biden 100% won Plano. He also almost certainly won Frisco, which is nice.

Are you including the parts of Frisco within Denton which are much more red than the Collin parts?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Texas: Lubbock (Trump definitely won Lubbock, might have won Plano not 100% sure)

Biden almost certainly won Plano just from what I saw eyeballing the precinct maps on election twitter.

Yeah. Biden 100% won Plano. He also almost certainly won Frisco, which is nice.

Are you including the parts of Frisco within Denton which are much more red than the Collin parts?

Hmmm. I forgot about those. It's definitely very close. Hard to tell.

[Wormless Gourd]

Trump may have upped his spot in Hawai'i, he won all the precincts overlapping with Waianae(all precincts were narrowly blue in '16) which is the 22nd largest place in the state and is nearly double the size of Laie.