Arizona megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think we know that the GA, CO, PA, and AZ GOP are the most insane state parties. Although for three of the four the national environment will save them somewhat (PA) to completely (GA)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Given that AZ's situation is similar to PA's, in that the GOP primaries on both sides are contentious and the Dem only has 1 real race, and even that one is pretty much locked up, I'm surprised to see Dem turnout so high, and beating GOP's in turnout % and raw #s.

Isn't AZ usually largely mail-in/early vote state vs. election day?

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1550949395855683584

Yeah that seems strange.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I mean this is the first post-Dobbs primary in a competitive state (Marylanders probably weren't concerned with losing abortion rights).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I wonder what Arpaio will run for in 2024. Probably Senate again.

Hopefully the Hell Senate. Maybe we can have a Kissinger-Arpaio matchup with incumbent Senator Pol Pot retiring.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1560705864448737281

It's always projection.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1562282937915170816
Republicans have a stunning lack of empathy.

The homeless issue is getting out of control. It used to just be in Phoenix/Tempe, now you can start seeing homeless people near the overpass exit ramps of suburbs and even upscale ones. People moved into these places to get away from this type of stuff and now it is slowly creeping back. She's offering some help, but no we aren't going to be like California and allow homeless drug addicts to keep injecting themselves at the taxpayers expense (Luckily Newsom vetoed).

She's implying all homelessness is a choice. She also doesn't specify any concrete actions (what is 'treatment'? Getting a job?) besides jail under Comrade Joe Arpaio.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What a coward, it appears like she was actually felt intimidated by Kari Lake. Respect to Mark Kelly, he is willing to debate Masters at least.

Well Lake is a former TV anchor who knows how to perform well in a debate, while Mark Kelly is a former veteran and astronaut facing a crypto-bro from California.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So people in AZ does Kelly look in better shape than Hobbs?

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The reason people think Lake is outperforming expectations is that there were none.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)

I think it also confirms the theory that "Most Insane=/=Most un-Electable". It of course can (Mastriano, etc) but those candidates have their own problems along with it.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

Because clearly if a generic D politician running again someone with decades of media training is not running ahead in the polls similar to a popular, incumbent astronaut and veteran running again a cryptobro, the campaign is sh**t.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"A candidate can't outperform approvals by 10%' is very much a braindead take. Brandon is at like -10 in Georgia and yet Warnock is expected to win.

Also, debate viewership was 49,000 both live and streamed since. It was on PBS, as well. This won't have any effect. Jesus Horatio Christ.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

The wish-casting smuggled into threads under the guise of "candidate quality" is getting absurd.

Former Astronaut married to a beloved figure in the state and served 25 years in the military in a state full of veterans who has net positive job approvals and is perceived by most to be moderate vs. Crypto-bro creep with Roy Moore tier likability scores and literal internet edgelord who has admitted a dislike for the military.

Obviously the latter would appeal more to swing voters.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA
I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Masters is doing that?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1579295382827589633?cxt=HHwWgoDTjZCy5OorAAAA
I am honestly surprised and am very glad Lake and Masters were able to flip the script on abortion. Instead of constantly being put on the defense, they are highlighting Hobbs and Kelly's all-you-care-to-abort with no restrictions stances and calling them out on it.

Masters is doing that?

Yeah he brought it up in the debate.

Yes but is he doing any concerted media effort like Lake?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If you live outside of Arizona, do virtual text or phone banking for Hobbs and any of the Democrats.

The stakes are too high. Another GOP sweep in Arizona would mean the state will run out of water in the next few years.

Is running out of water your new COVID? You've mentioned it twice today.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is like what would happen in PA-GOV if the Dems nominated Malcom Kenyetta and Doug Mastriano had an IQ about 20 points higher and wore a wig to not look like a Nazi skinhead.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1605602753425788945

Seriously??

Almost two months to know the winner. Unbelievable.

Maybe some states need a few Germans, French or Canadians to run their elections, when we have the results the next morning. Heck, even Brazil can count over 100 million votes from a country that's 47% of South America's total size in a matter of a single day.

Or actually Floridians. They are unironically some of the best in the world at counting votes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

That's the first official gubernatorial transfer of power this year. IIRC Mills, DeSantis, Sununu, and Noem also have inaugurations today.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

That Greg Rubini thing really takes me back. I remember dunking on his red California prediction before election day 2020. Simpler times. Now I feel kind of guilty, his posting seems borderline schizophrenic and he apparently spent $60k "reverse engineering" these results. It's sad that so many of these people are being victimized by these con artists.

It's fine. He published six reports which total $111 that some gullible MAGAts will buy.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

How does she have 500k, she's a former social worker and comes from a modest family.

Presumably it may include campaign donations.