Arizona megathread

[kwabbit]

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  . I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

[kwabbit]

For whatever reason, Hobbs refuses to share a stage with Lake.

That said, her and Lake just did a town hall on the third that airs on Telemundo this Saturday.

Hobbs said that she doesn’t want to platform Lake, but Lake is getting tons of airtime and coverage that could be going to Hobbs if she was campaigning as visibly. Hiding from the voters just isn’t a good look. I think Hobbs could make an easy case that she’s the better woman for the job, but abstaining from events just comes across as entitled.

[kwabbit]

Every day I'm getting more depressed about this race.  If Hobbs loses, which it's looking more and more likely she will, she needs to be drummed out of AZ politics (and preferably the state) for good.  She's blowing this race right and left, and it's sad that nobody better stepped up and ran.

And yet I still dare to hope Hobbs might win.  If "Roevember" (eye roll) becomes a thing, or if just enough people wake up and see how batsh**t nuts Qari Lake is, there's still hope.  But I'm afraid we're getting to the point where desperate hope is ALL there is.

Regardless, I don't think there's any chance of a blowout win by Lake.  As we've mentioned, she's making virtually no effort to reach out to the middle or moderate.  But all she needs is a plurality to get in there and wreak God knows what kind of havoc here.

But how? Leftists online want to just keep running with this narrative and yet where's the proof? She's out campaigning, she's on TV (I've seen multiple hits just this week), the DGA/Hobbs campaign together are out maneuvering Lake/RGA on the air, it was 2:1 most recently in terms of spend.

Meanwhile, Lake is out here embarrassing herself most days with ridiculous stunts and press conferences, of which who is the target here other than hardcore Republicans?

I'm not in Arizona, but it feels like the narrative that some want to say about this race is much different than what is actually happening in reality. Not sure what else Hobbs should be doing that she's not doing now? She's not a bombastic personality and never has been, and I don't think anybody wants her to be.

You could make the exact same argument that Lake is "blowing" this race by not moderating whatsoever and relying on pure stunts for attention. Getting attention does not mean you are getting ahead in a race.

For Hobbs to be a favorite, she would have to be leading in the polls by a few points at least. There's little reason to expect the environment to become more favorable for the Democrats or for polling to underestimate her.

I don't think Hobbs is running a terrible campaign, just not the one she needs to win. This race is just standing in contrast to a lot of other gubernatorial races with similar circumstances where the Democrat is up big. The comparison to PA GOV is obvious, but Shapiro is up 10 in the polls and Hobbs down 1. Why is that? One answer is that Hobbs' campaign is worse than more successful Democrats. While Shapiro has been able to focus the race on Mastriano's insanity, Hobbs hasn't been able to focus attention on Lake's enough. Debating might have allowed her to draw attention to Lake's flaws, but she passed up on that opportunity.

[kwabbit]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

Dude how does this reflect poorly on Lake? She's clearly making a joke, so of course you can't take it seriously. Sometimes I don't get you wbrocks.

[kwabbit]

Y'all want to get on me for defending Hobbs, when some of you defend every move Lake does as if she's not running a dumpster fire of a campaign...

You weren't even defending Hobbs, you just posted a video of Lake being affable and joking with her supporters and suggested that she was legitimately begging Hobbs to debate her on the view.

Lake has a lead in the polling average and has had favorable trends in the polling average for months. You can call that a dumpster fire of a campaign if you want. But please provide an explanation for why Lake has the advantage when her peers in Dixon and Mastriano are getting blown out then. One would think that a dumpster fire of a campaign against the solid campaign Hobbs is conducting would yield similar results in states with similar partisanship.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784
Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

Some Dem operatives apparently learned zero lessons from 2016's pied piper strategy.

They didn't, and now it's almost certain that Lake and some of these other election denialists are going to win next month.

I don't know how to tell you this, but Republican primary voters have agency. Democrats didn't trick them into voting for Lake. This is a right-wing talking point, but I'm not surprised that you're falling for it.

Of course they have agency, but as has been said many times before, many Democrats were uncomfortable with these particular tactics and do not believe they should have been employed. I'm far from the only person who has made this point. And why are you "surprised"? I'm getting tired of this "#bothsideism" nonsense that you and other posters continue to bash me and those like me with.

I fail to see the both sidisms of this.

Did democrats boost Lake? Yes
Did it make an impact? Maybe?
Would she have won the primary regardless? Most Probably

The effect of democrats swinging republicans primaries is greatly over exaggerated

The AZ GOP Gubernatorial primary is one of the races where it might’ve made a difference. Lake winning by 5% in a primary is not a lot. She was spending basically nothing herself on ads run in support of her could have had a large marginal effect. Either way, Democratic support of her relied on a belief that she was a much weaker candidate than she’s turned out to be.