Arizona megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 67163 times)
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« on: August 03, 2022, 06:47:35 PM »

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

It's actually kind of funny that if she does want badly to be Governor, given the state's trends she could have easily used this unique platform/name ID base to run as a very credible moderate Democrat.

In reading what AZdude said, her entire Trumpist persona reeks of opportunism to me, and I think she figured it would be easier to appeal to the MAGA crowd. What she is doing is almost performance art. She is acting like a complete cliche of what she thinks the GOP wants. Granted, she might be correct in portraying herself as such since trump cultists are so easily manipulated. Say what you will about Mastriano in turn, but I think he is a true believer meanwhile. That possible phoniness of Lake ought to be part of Hobbs' campaign against her.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2022, 06:50:50 PM »


Let her waste her time on this mishigas instead of campaigning.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2022, 06:22:35 PM »

Yeah, Lake has so much more self-restraint than Mastriano...
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2022, 06:26:24 PM »

Finchem scares me more than Mastriano. I hope you're all correct that Arizonans will actually care enough about all this to reject him with well-deserved prejudice.

That goes for all four of the state's major competitive statewide elections actually. They all need to be tied together because even one of them winning could be disastrous.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2022, 07:31:34 PM »

Newesome striking shots into AZ now, too:



I don't know if he really helps here.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2022, 05:55:23 PM »




"If they're accuarte"? She really talks like she's living in an alternative reality.

She is. Like most Republicans are.

I do think this backpedaling will work for her though, even as it's more of a cop-out than anything. She's definitely handling this dilemma better than Mastriano handled his antisemitism accusations. It's why I'm more concerned about her winning than Mastriano. She seems to have some self-awareness and better instincts.

Let's check in on the Lake campaign to see what attacks they're going with this cycle:




Gaslighting? Kari Lake is an atlas poster confirmed!

She does remind me a little of fhtagn.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2022, 05:59:26 PM »




That's actually pretty good. I'm sure it's within the margin of error, but a three point win in Arizona at all, if accurate, is a good showing and may suggest that Democrats could have a good chance at winning the statewide elections here this year-which is absolutely essential given how bats*** insane almost all the statewide nominees are, as much as they may try to hide it in thinking their state's voters are stupid (and Finchem isn't even bothering to do that).
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2022, 05:53:55 PM »

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

The thing though when it comes to migration to Arizona is a lot of it are right leaning people from California or your more libratrian  types. This was definitely accelerated during covid as California had some of the strictest lockdowns while AZ was open. I went to bars in AZ in December 2020 while at the same time Newsom had a cerfew law in California. Lots of right leaning Californians went to AZ for “freedom”. AZ also isn’t really a culturally liberal state that’s attractive to left leaning people. That whole Wild Wild West culture isn’t a big attraction for liberals. Now Colorado on the other hand, that’s a state o can see more and more left leaning people from the west coast moving to. Not saying it’s only republicans moving to Arizona but this isn’t a situation like northern Virginia where you have a bunch of D.C. Democrats and government works moving to NOVA.

This has been discussed before but migrants from Cali to Arizona are still extremely unlikely to skew R as a whole, even if they prolly are more conservative than Cali as a whole. I think folks overestimate the number of folks who choose to move in large part because of politics. I do agree though Pheonix has always been more conservative than places like Denver and Austin and will likely continue to be more conservative for a variety of reasons. It was one of the last major metros that still net Rs votes until very recently (even Dallas and Houston metros net Clinton votes in 2016).

Just think about it logically. Moving is a huge deal that takes a lot of time and money. Most people just don't ahve the means to move even if they're very very unhappy with state politics. People only tend to move for work, family, or when they've moved signigicantly on the economic latter.

I mean I'm not saying they are overwelmingly Republican, but this notion that all migrants are going to skew Democrat is not accurate either. There has definitely been a number of right leaning Californians who have moved to neighboring states especially during and post covid and I know AZ is one of the main states they move too. These are probably more so So Cal people. Again not saying its highly skewed towards Republicans but I don't think by any means its skewed towards Democrats. Probably a wash at best and that was just in response to the previous poster assuming migration is automatically a plus for Democrats everywhere.

It's really something impossible to say. But consider Biden voters outnumber Trump voters 2:1 in Cali. That would mean that Biden voters, including those who are pretty a-political, would have half the chance of moving to AZ than Trump voters.

Also generally, Dems tend to be more transient than Rs cause they skew younger and lack families. Like literally most every growing part of the US (including Pheonix) has shifted D in the past 2 decades while nearly every shrinking area has shifted R. That's not a coincidence.

I don't doubt there may be some folks who moved from Cali to Arizona cause they don't like Cali's politics, but are they really enough to outnumber your folks moving for more "normal" reasons?

I can't say it enough, but politics is not a realistic concern for people to upend their entire lives and permanently move. I doubt there are too many Californians moving to Arizona for political reasons as well. Politics comes second to economic or familial reasons. People are pretty practical when it comes to how they want to live their everyday lives. The real conservative retirees are those who are moving to Florida in droves every year from northern states, and even then, them being conservative is incidental to why they're moving.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2022, 06:47:20 PM »

Not really a good look for Hobbs, I'm not sure why she's doing this.

I honestly cannot tell if this is driven more by her or her people advising and attempting to protect her.

Either way, they’re all morons. When she loses, it’s on her and her team. It’ll be extra embarrassing if Kelly wins and Ds still win a couple other statewide races.

Fontes (SOS), Mayes (AG), and Hoffman (School Superintendent) are all EAGER to destroy their whack job opponent… Hobbs… MIA, cowering…

It would be so weird if Lake wins as Democrats sweep most other statewide positions. At least they could possibly defend against any future attempt for Lake to try and change her state's electoral votes in 2024 if they don't go how she wants them to. If Lake absolutely has to end up winning, that wouldn't be the worst trade-off.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2022, 06:07:48 PM »

Ron DeSantis refusing to debate Charlie Crist ought to make this less of a problem, right? I mean, if an opponent not wanting to debate is such a victory then Crist has momentum!
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2022, 05:04:11 PM »

I think the issue with Hobbs and the debate has less to do with her doing the debate itself, though she lacks the excuse that Fetterman had, but more because it lets Lake characterize her as a "coward" or that she's hiding something from voters. It then puts Hobbs on defense and keeps Lake in charge of the election's narrative which should be about Lake and her extreme anti-choice, Big Lie peddling views.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2022, 06:37:17 PM »

She needs to do more Fetterman-ing like this



Not bad.

And yes, I agree. Fetterman's use of twitter has garnered a lot of media attention to Oz's detriment that helped with the effort of defining him early as out-of-touch. Hobbs probably has some catching up to do in that regard, but maybe it could help dilute whatever inexplicable charms Lake seems to have over people who should know better.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2022, 05:34:09 PM »

Lake seems to have qualms about attaching herself to Finchem, possibly the most fringe candidate in the entire country, and Hobbs needs to capitalize on that. If Arizonans don't find Lake extreme on her own, surely associating so closely with an Oath Keeper should send that message, right?
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2022, 05:34:03 PM »

Lake seems to have qualms about attaching herself to Finchem, possibly the most fringe candidate in the entire country, and Hobbs needs to capitalize on that. If Arizonans don't find Lake extreme on her own, surely associating so closely with an Oath Keeper should send that message, right?

The average voter has no idea who Finchem is

Relative to other Secretary of State races around the country, even others where election deniers are running, I would argue that Finchem is attracting the most attention. And if voters aren't all that familiar, perhaps Hobbs could help make him more well-known.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2022, 06:05:15 PM »

Maybe this will be what it takes for Virginians to finally accept that Youngkin duped them by portraying himself as being "reasonable." He doesn't have to associate himself with an election denier like Lake, but he is doing it anyway. I hate him so much.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2022, 09:02:30 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2022, 05:36:16 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.

Notice though how there seems to be more undecides in every poll for Gov, SOS, and AG when compared to Senate. This makes me think the actual overperformance of these downballot Rs is much smaller than polls suggest

I hope you're right. And maybe Finchem's recent comments about not certifying a Biden win will finally make some Arizona voters hesitant to vote for him. Seriously, he is basically saying if elected he won't even do his job.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2022, 06:43:34 PM »



I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).

Take it and run with it, Hobbs! Now's her chance to put Lake on the defense more.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2022, 05:51:56 PM »

Looks like Hobbs' team was ready for this



This is a very shrewd way to tie abortion access to other issues. I commend Hobbs for this. This could be very effective in even getting more ambivalent voters to care about how the court decision affects everything.

I always say that reproductive rights transcends just being about a woman's autonomy it can affect many other aspects of society from crime to economics, and making those connections clear only makes the Democratic case for abortion rights more effective.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2022, 05:19:18 PM »

I really appreciate that Cheney has her priorities straight and is consistent in putting country over party, but I don't think she'll be of much help to Democrats in Arizona. Maybe a Rusty Bowers or Cindy McCain would be better assists if they campaigned for Democrats.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2022, 05:07:23 PM »




Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. At a minimum both races (like the gubernatorial race) seem to be tossups where they could very well have been more Republican due to less interest in them.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2022, 06:23:01 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.

The problem is that celebrity candidates work for Republicans because they are inherently starf***ers and worship the concept of celebrity. With Democrats nominating public figures unrelated to political office, or some involvement with it, usually doesn't go so well. The party's base actually values experience and knowledge. Remember how Clay Aiken ran for North Carolina House seats...twice! The only exception I can think of is Al Franken, and even then his past caught up to him and ended his career in politics.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2022, 06:57:42 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.

The problem is that celebrity candidates work for Republicans because they are inherently starf***ers and worship the concept of celebrity. With Democrats nominating public figures unrelated to political office, or some involvement with it, usually doesn't go so well. The party's base actually values experience and knowledge. Remember how Clay Aiken ran for North Carolina House seats...twice! The only exception I can think of is Al Franken, and even then his past caught up to him and ended his career in politics.

Banking on celebrity isn't a specifically Republican or Democratic thing. Neither party is immune or reliant on it; it's a marginal trend. To the slight disproportion that Republicans have a nasty tendency to run celebrities for office, Democrats have a slight disproportion for the nasty tendency to turn officeholders into celebrities.

But since you were curious and having trouble: Mark Kelly, Cynthia Nixon, Melissa Gilbert, and Kevin Johnson all recently ran for office primarily or exclusively on their celebrity status. If you're stretching the qualification to include Lake (local news anchor), you'd have to include Nick Clooney, Abby Broyles, and Liz Mathis too.

In fact, here's a whole list of dozens of news anchors from both parties:
https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/local_tv_anchors_ran_for_office_list.php

In my defense, I had not heard of many of those people (save for Kelly and Nixon, of course). But in Kelly's case, he was active in his wife's gun control initiatives. It's a little different than him just running for office as a famous astronaut.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2022, 05:52:44 PM »



I don't think this move the needle, but I'm not against it.
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2022, 05:48:50 PM »

Yet another opportunity for Hobbs. This is the most obvious example yet of Lake being two-faced. Hell, tie her to Walker.
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