Arizona megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 67173 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« on: July 31, 2022, 01:54:07 PM »

Ah yes, the first thing that comes to mind when the average voter thinks about Cindy McCain (besides whoever her daddy was) - that she's a "globalist".
Kari Lake is speaking from the mind of the typical Arizona swing voter.

You’re thinking of Meghan. Cindy is McCain’s mistress-turned-widow. Fun fact: They were set up by Jill Biden!
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2022, 07:55:57 AM »

Who's going to win the primary at this point?

I would strongly favor Lake but would not call it yet.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2022, 04:55:07 PM »

As an Arizonan, I may sound like a broken record on this, but we've seen Kari Lake for 20 years or so every night on the news.  She is, or at least was, one of the most well-known and trusted media personalities around.  The rest of the country may have only seen the recent lunatic persona, but that's not what a lot of people around here think.

Until maybe 2018 or so, she seemed to be fairly liberal in her social media, etc.  She praised Obama and attacked Trump.  And then, for some reason, she lurched to the right.  Did Trump and/or the pandemic drive her nuts?  Did she suddenly decide she really wanted to be governor and that this was the best path there?  Who knows.

It's actually kind of funny that if she does want badly to be Governor, given the state's trends she could have easily used this unique platform/name ID base to run as a very credible moderate Democrat.

Because of this alternate possibility, my guess is that her conversion is sincere. She is one of the many thousands whose eyes have been opened, to the chagrin and disbelief of Atlas posters, by government policy since spring 2020.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2022, 01:47:00 PM »

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)

This is a very solid theory with decades of evidence to back it up.

Two other examples I can think of are State Senators Dick LaRossa and Diane Allen in New Jersey. LaRossa hosted the televised nightly lottery drawing, Allen was an Emmy-winning newscaster, and both were Republicans who won strongly Democratic constituencies multiple times. I've heard from multiple Arizonans who say that Lake is best known for her pre-political activity, and average Arizonans like her.

It's a combination of long-term credibility with the average voter and short-term ability to conduct oneself confidently in front of a camera.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2022, 09:20:49 AM »

Pleased to learn Liz Cheney is an actual moron rather than just playing one for the cameras. This bodes well for my nation’s future, and indeed for the future of all nations.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2022, 06:54:43 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.

The problem is that celebrity candidates work for Republicans because they are inherently starf***ers and worship the concept of celebrity. With Democrats nominating public figures unrelated to political office, or some involvement with it, usually doesn't go so well. The party's base actually values experience and knowledge. Remember how Clay Aiken ran for North Carolina House seats...twice! The only exception I can think of is Al Franken, and even then his past caught up to him and ended his career in politics.

Banking on celebrity isn't a specifically Republican or Democratic thing. Neither party is immune or reliant on it; it's an incredibly marginal trend. To the slight (but growing since Trump) disproportion that Republicans have a nasty tendency to run celebrities for office, Democrats have a slight disproportion for the nasty tendency to turn officeholders into celebrities.

Mark Kelly, Cynthia Nixon, Melissa Gilbert, and Kevin Johnson all recently ran for office primarily or exclusively on their celebrity status. Going back, you have Bill Bradley, John Glenn, Helen Douglas. If you're stretching the qualification to include Lake (local news anchor), you'd have to include Nick Clooney, Abby Broyles, and Liz Mathis too.

In fact, here's a whole list of dozens of news anchors from both parties:
https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/local_tv_anchors_ran_for_office_list.php
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2022, 08:21:44 PM »

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

The wish-casting smuggled into threads under the guise of "candidate quality" is getting absurd.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2022, 02:32:37 PM »

The latest pull from the oppo file is that where Katie Hobbs went to high school held a slave day and that Hobbs may have helped organize it.

This one sounds like a school sanctioned event that went on for decades, beyond just Hobbs, where freshmen were “slaves” matched to their senior “masters.” Still, sigh.

Where is the Kari dirty laundry? I’m sure her finances are interesting…

This seems like a complete non-story to me, since it was so long ago and Hobbs's connection is limited, but I clicked on the article just to get a sense of what was happening here and...

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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2022, 07:01:31 PM »

[tweet "Live footage of Kari Lake's meltdown"]

What is this tweet? Is she just trying to call attention to the video of herself spilling soda and hiding in the bathroom? Did her campaign vandalize the sign? Did it melt? I have so many questions for this woman.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,471
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2022, 04:52:06 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2022, 04:55:13 AM by Incitatus for Senate »

MSNBC is dedicating an entire early morning block to Lake, apparently basically conceding that she will win and trying to stave off a Lake presidency. Exaggeration, but the host struggled to find anything nice to say about Hobbs.
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