AZ-GOV 2022: Calvin and Hobbs
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September 30, 2022, 07:06:20 AM
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  AZ-GOV 2022: Calvin and Hobbs
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Author Topic: AZ-GOV 2022: Calvin and Hobbs  (Read 16967 times)
Devout Centrist
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #400 on: September 19, 2022, 01:07:47 PM »

Another step on the long road to a sixth place finish in Iowa
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #401 on: September 19, 2022, 06:05:15 PM »

Maybe this will be what it takes for Virginians to finally accept that Youngkin duped them by portraying himself as being "reasonable." He doesn't have to associate himself with an election denier like Lake, but he is doing it anyway. I hate him so much.
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2016
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« Reply #402 on: September 19, 2022, 06:06:38 PM »

Older Republican and Independent Voters disapprove of Bidens Student Loan Forgiveness Package new AZ Poll shows
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #403 on: September 19, 2022, 06:14:53 PM »

I mean, it's still a net positive in that poll overall, at 50/46, and Independents are even higher, 52/42. Even gets 24% of Republicans.

You're likely to find 55+ everywhere probably disapproving, because most of them either don't understand or don't agree because they don't understand.
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2016
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« Reply #404 on: September 19, 2022, 06:20:35 PM »

I mean, it's still a net positive in that poll overall, at 50/46, and Independents are even higher, 52/42. Even gets 24% of Republicans.

You're likely to find 55+ everywhere probably disapproving, because most of them either don't understand or don't agree because they don't understand.
Nice spin try but according to Exit Polls in AZ 2018 (The Last Midterm) 66 % of the Electorate was 45+,
and 29 % were 65+
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate
You will have an "Alamo" with Hobbs come November. Lake has now more than an even chance to win this after being left for dead after the Primary. Hobbs refusing to debate Lake won't help her.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #405 on: September 19, 2022, 06:25:17 PM »

2016: just keep telling yourself that student loan relief will cost the Democrats in November.  You won't convince any of the rest of us, but if it makes you feel better then have at it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #406 on: September 20, 2022, 10:06:07 AM »



Anyone want to defend this?  Anyone?
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Devout Centrist
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #407 on: September 20, 2022, 10:46:10 AM »

Quote
You will have an "Alamo" with Hobbs come November. Lake has now more than an even chance to win this after being left for dead after the Primary. Hobbs refusing to debate Lake won't help her.
This is revisionist history ofc (Lake v Hobbs really hasnít budged much since August and Iíd argue most people recognized this race was a toss up back then), but the Alamo comment does catch my eye. The Texans lost the Battle of the Alamo, yes, but they ultimately won their independence in the end.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #408 on: September 21, 2022, 09:00:14 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.
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Devout Centrist
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #409 on: September 21, 2022, 09:01:43 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.
Lack of attention and low name rec = GOP advantage (at least for the moment, anyway)
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #410 on: September 21, 2022, 09:02:30 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #411 on: September 21, 2022, 09:23:54 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.

Notice though how there seems to be more undecides in every poll for Gov, SOS, and AG when compared to Senate. This makes me think the actual overperformance of these downballot Rs is much smaller than polls suggest
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The Thinking Man's Orangewoman
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« Reply #412 on: September 22, 2022, 10:19:04 AM »
« Edited: September 22, 2022, 10:25:38 AM by The Thinking Man's Orangewoman »

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)
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cg41386
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« Reply #413 on: September 22, 2022, 12:33:25 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.

Huh?
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AMB1996
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« Reply #414 on: September 22, 2022, 01:47:00 PM »

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)

This is a very solid theory with decades of evidence to back it up.

Two other examples I can think of are State Senators Dick LaRossa and Diane Allen in New Jersey. LaRossa hosted the televised nightly lottery drawing, Allen was an Emmy-winning newscaster, and both were Republicans who won strongly Democratic constituencies multiple times. I've heard from multiple Arizonans who say that Lake is best known for her pre-political activity, and average Arizonans like her.

It's a combination of long-term credibility with the average voter and short-term ability to conduct oneself confidently in front of a camera.
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xavier110
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« Reply #415 on: September 22, 2022, 03:36:33 PM »

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)

Yes. Itís a bit of both. The contrast makes Hobbs look like a void of charisma, which wouldnít really be the case if she were facing Robson, for example.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #416 on: September 22, 2022, 05:36:16 PM »

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  Surprise. I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.

Notice though how there seems to be more undecides in every poll for Gov, SOS, and AG when compared to Senate. This makes me think the actual overperformance of these downballot Rs is much smaller than polls suggest

I hope you're right. And maybe Finchem's recent comments about not certifying a Biden win will finally make some Arizona voters hesitant to vote for him. Seriously, he is basically saying if elected he won't even do his job.
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« Reply #417 on: September 23, 2022, 12:57:16 AM »

Not sure how seriously to take this yet, but I'm starting to develop a theory that Lake may turn out to have an advantage relative to other Rs just because, as Trump or Mark Ronchetti have shown recently, being portrayed as an authoritative figure on television for years and years before entering politics can in fact be a boon to your credibility as a candidate. (and, by extension, that the narrative is more negative about Hobbs as a candidate than it necessarily should be)

I think it also confirms the theory that "Most Insane=/=Most un-Electable". It of course can (Mastriano, etc) but those candidates have their own problems along with it.
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Pollster
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« Reply #418 on: September 23, 2022, 08:29:37 AM »

I think it also confirms the theory that "Most Insane=/=Most un-Electable". It of course can (Mastriano, etc) but those candidates have their own problems along with it.

Most "insane" candidates live and operate in echo chambers with no self-awareness or handlers around them pushing them in better strategic directions. Lake notably does not do this, and her long pre-political career (in media no less) is likely a key reason.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #419 on: September 23, 2022, 06:41:09 PM »



I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #420 on: September 23, 2022, 06:43:34 PM »



I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).

Take it and run with it, Hobbs! Now's her chance to put Lake on the defense more.
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jfern
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« Reply #421 on: September 23, 2022, 06:49:01 PM »



I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).

The crazy thing is that was during the Civil War and there was a rival confederate Arizona territory with different boundaries.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #422 on: September 23, 2022, 07:08:52 PM »

Likely a decent boost for Hobbs, could boost this from Tilt R to Tilt D
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #423 on: September 23, 2022, 07:35:42 PM »

Hobbs needs to go full throttle with this and hit Lake on every front.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #424 on: September 23, 2022, 07:57:11 PM »

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