Arizona megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

The bolded will be considerably more difficult; the maps adopted by the redistricting commissions are decidedly not D friendly. Statewide wins, though, entirely possible.

I mean in a normal year they should have 3 seats in a bag and both AZ-01 and AZ-06 are narrowly Biden and have been shifting hard left, especially AZ-01. A 6th seat is trickier to see.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

Imo, her problem will likely be one of turnout, Hobbs comes across as sane but not particularly inspiring or exciting as a candidate. Furthermore, we already saw Biden struggle with Hispanic voters in 2020 and his issues have only seen to have grown throughout his first term which could also create problems for Hobbs, though tbf, AZ Hispanics are relatively Urban compared to other Southwest states.

In a her of her vs Lake, I think she'd get Bidenish numbers in educated suburbs like Scottsdale but would struggle with Hispanics both in terms of margin and turnout, ultimately costing her. Furthermore, it'll be interesting to see how she does with Native American voters; Ducey had some very solid performances with certain tribes in 2018 and I wonder if any of that carries over to 2022.

[wbrocks67]

This is going viral for all the wrong reasons. Hobbs is smart to keep a low profile for now while these whackos battle it out.

At least Hobbs comes off as reasonable and sane compared to this.

https://twitter.com/endajodowd/status/1542915789845561346

[Politician]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, I'm sure Democrats are going to win AZ-1, AZ-6 and the state legislature in a R+6 environment with Biden deeply unpopular because "muh candidate quality"

This forum is such a Democratic wishcast it's not even funny. Nobody cares about what some Republican said months ago when the economy is sh**t

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Yes, I'm sure Democrats are going to win AZ-1, AZ-6 and the state legislature in a R+6 environment with Biden deeply unpopular because "muh candidate quality"

This forum is such a Democratic wishcast it's not even funny. Nobody cares about what some Republican said months ago when the economy is sh**t

I don't think they will win any of those races, especially in an R + 6 environment. However, I think Republican margins for a lot of key races will be relatively embarrassing given the environment, even if they win those races.

Long term though, what upside is there for the GOP in Arizona? It's a heavily urban state with a major growing metro that has consistantly shifting left. The GOP has traditionally relied heavily relied on suburban communities, many of which have lots of college graduates, to win the state. Recently the GOP has been having problems with this group and running people like Lake certainly doesn't help.

In order for the GOP to keep AZ in play long term, they themselves will have to change in order to appeal to a more diverse, urban, and educated base.

The one good thing for them is liberal Tucson is growing slower than the rest of the state, and many of the fastest growing suburbs are some of the reddest. However, they have also gotten a lot less red in recent years, likely due to this growth, so it's a bit of a paradox.

[SnowLabrador]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Firstly, the Hispanic shift in NM was not too bad in 2020, even Dona Ana County shifted left from 2016. Seems like the biggest R shifts in the state were in depopulating native American communities

And AZ Hispanics did still have a notable rightwards swing in 2020, but due to being concetrated in mostly urban areas, turnout increase more than made up for it.

[Devout Centrist]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Urban Mexican Americans are less likely to slip away from the Democrats, imo. Maybe we'll see some kind of backlash this fall, but the situation is nowhere near as dire here as it is in South Texas.

[Roll Roons]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

New Mexico literally trended Democratic between 2016 and 2020. Do you even listen to yourself?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Hispanic! Are not! A monolith!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Hispanic! Are not! A monolith!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Lol we won the Cali recall with  Newsom with Blk andLatino support

Kelly is leading 47/41 against all GOP challenges

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

Hispanic! Are not! A monolith!

It's kinda amusing seeing folks tie themselves into knots prognosticating about the voting trends of Mexicans in Arizona or Imperial County based on the Cuban vote in South Florida.

Might as well assume Japanese-Americans, Indian-Americans & Chinese-Americans all vote the same because they're all Asian.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1544823902852894721

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1545041411858305026

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1545041411858305026

No suprise, but Karrin's campaign has been really underwhelming and a bit embarrassing. She's trying to run in the lane of "fiscally conservative Reagan Republcian" while still feeding into a lot of the conspiracy and culture wars on the far right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1547037679400927232

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone covering Hobbs? I know her primary is much more secure but I feel like no one posts about anything she's doing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone covering Hobbs? I know her primary is much more secure but I feel like no one posts about anything she's doing.

Honestly, it seems like rn her campaign hasn't been particularly impressive. She really seems to be betting on a Lake win in the primary and running on "I'm sane". I suspect once she knows who she's runnung against things will really ramp up as usual.

[xavier110]

Is anyone covering Hobbs? I know her primary is much more secure but I feel like no one posts about anything she's doing.

She’s not been doing much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hobbs is probably content to hang back and let Robson and Lake pound on each other.  I'm sure she'll be much more active after the primary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is bordering on Tilt D if Lake wins the primary.

You cannot go into an election in a purple state, even this year, with the endorsement of people like MTG (and actively talking about liking that endorsement)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, this is bordering on Tilt D if Lake wins the primary.

You cannot go into an election in a purple state, even this year, with the endorsement of people like MTG (and actively talking about liking that endorsement)

I think if Rs lose competative races in 2022 with the far right Trumpy canidates, we may see a reverse of Dems post-2020 where they really slapped themselves in the face for things like defund the police. How big of an impact it actually has though is hard to say, especially since overall congressional Dems pretty much matched Biden in 2020.

[MargieCat]

Maybe Democrats should run ads saying something along the lines of "Kari Lake stands with Trump. She will not let democrats steal any more elections. She will not bend to the woke mob. Having Katie Hobbs as governor would be like having a third term of Doug Ducey."

They can make the ads seem as if they are coming from the Lake campaign or a GOP group, but tie Hobbs to Ducey (as if it were a bad thing).

It might be a way to help attract independents and moderate non-Trumpy republicans to vote for Hobbs.