Arizona megathread
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Person Man
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« Reply #475 on: September 29, 2022, 08:46:40 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2022, 08:50:36 PM by Person Man »



Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

Huh for some reason I thought the gap was larger.

I think it used to be, but the R's have lost a lot of ground to Independents (and D's have lost a little too, IIRC).

Its pretty close to where Colorado was when it started to be competitive. At about R+2, Republicans really started to struggle there.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #476 on: September 29, 2022, 09:34:55 PM »



Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

Huh for some reason I thought the gap was larger.

I think it used to be, but the R's have lost a lot of ground to Independents (and D's have lost a little too, IIRC).

Its pretty close to where Colorado was when it started to be competitive. At about R+2, Republicans really started to struggle there.

Honestly, Arizona feels quite simillar to Colorado just with a more entrenched conservative/Republican history to it and also Colorado has higher level of education. Both states are dominated by 1 main city (Pheonix and Denver) and then have a secondary city (Tucson and El Paso), and both have notable Hispanic populations as well.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #477 on: September 30, 2022, 07:14:23 AM »



Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

Huh for some reason I thought the gap was larger.

I think it used to be, but the R's have lost a lot of ground to Independents (and D's have lost a little too, IIRC).

Its pretty close to where Colorado was when it started to be competitive. At about R+2, Republicans really started to struggle there.

Honestly, Arizona feels quite simillar to Colorado just with a more entrenched conservative/Republican history to it and also Colorado has higher level of education. Both states are dominated by 1 main city (Pheonix and Denver) and then have a secondary city (Tucson and El Paso), and both have notable Hispanic populations as well.

El Paso has moved to Colorado?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #478 on: September 30, 2022, 07:17:59 AM »



Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

Huh for some reason I thought the gap was larger.

I think it used to be, but the R's have lost a lot of ground to Independents (and D's have lost a little too, IIRC).

Its pretty close to where Colorado was when it started to be competitive. At about R+2, Republicans really started to struggle there.

Honestly, Arizona feels quite simillar to Colorado just with a more entrenched conservative/Republican history to it and also Colorado has higher level of education. Both states are dominated by 1 main city (Pheonix and Denver) and then have a secondary city (Tucson and El Paso), and both have notable Hispanic populations as well.

El Paso has moved to Colorado?

I’m sorry Colorado Springs (I was thinking El Paso County lol)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #479 on: September 30, 2022, 07:27:09 AM »

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Person Man
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« Reply #480 on: September 30, 2022, 08:20:42 AM »



LAW AND ORDER

Lake's Campaign is not a conservative movement.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #481 on: September 30, 2022, 01:20:10 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.
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Person Man
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« Reply #482 on: September 30, 2022, 03:34:29 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.
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xavier110
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« Reply #483 on: September 30, 2022, 03:52:06 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2022, 03:57:44 PM by xavier110 »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

The calculus is clearly that Lake will walk all over Hobbs or embarrass her in the debate. Hobbs is very timid and by the book and will wilt if Lake raises stuff like the racial discrimination lawsuit.

At the same time, Hobbs also says Lake spews lies that make debating impossible. I guess that is, pardon the pun, debatable, but there’s more to her decision than just that (it’s also the above).

I agree with you, though, that it is cowardly, and that if Hobbs were well prepared and confident she could expose Lake as a fraud. Alas, that will not happen before Nov and we will be stuck with this highly irritating race that she potentially loses (probably loses? I am more down on this race than most, as I get a lot of bad vibes, Hillary vs Trump ish flashbacks).
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #484 on: September 30, 2022, 06:23:01 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.

The problem is that celebrity candidates work for Republicans because they are inherently starf***ers and worship the concept of celebrity. With Democrats nominating public figures unrelated to political office, or some involvement with it, usually doesn't go so well. The party's base actually values experience and knowledge. Remember how Clay Aiken ran for North Carolina House seats...twice! The only exception I can think of is Al Franken, and even then his past caught up to him and ended his career in politics.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #485 on: September 30, 2022, 06:54:43 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.

The problem is that celebrity candidates work for Republicans because they are inherently starf***ers and worship the concept of celebrity. With Democrats nominating public figures unrelated to political office, or some involvement with it, usually doesn't go so well. The party's base actually values experience and knowledge. Remember how Clay Aiken ran for North Carolina House seats...twice! The only exception I can think of is Al Franken, and even then his past caught up to him and ended his career in politics.

Banking on celebrity isn't a specifically Republican or Democratic thing. Neither party is immune or reliant on it; it's an incredibly marginal trend. To the slight (but growing since Trump) disproportion that Republicans have a nasty tendency to run celebrities for office, Democrats have a slight disproportion for the nasty tendency to turn officeholders into celebrities.

Mark Kelly, Cynthia Nixon, Melissa Gilbert, and Kevin Johnson all recently ran for office primarily or exclusively on their celebrity status. Going back, you have Bill Bradley, John Glenn, Helen Douglas. If you're stretching the qualification to include Lake (local news anchor), you'd have to include Nick Clooney, Abby Broyles, and Liz Mathis too.

In fact, here's a whole list of dozens of news anchors from both parties:
https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/local_tv_anchors_ran_for_office_list.php
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #486 on: September 30, 2022, 06:57:42 PM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

I think because Lake is some sort of anchor woman on TV so you can't really debate with someone who lives on TV as just a regular person. Democrats have been having trouble finding people with unique gifts from adjacent fields to civics and law. If this and next election is really that bad for them, their traditional bench will be depleted and then they will have to look for actors, newspeople, and other people with special abilities.

The problem is that celebrity candidates work for Republicans because they are inherently starf***ers and worship the concept of celebrity. With Democrats nominating public figures unrelated to political office, or some involvement with it, usually doesn't go so well. The party's base actually values experience and knowledge. Remember how Clay Aiken ran for North Carolina House seats...twice! The only exception I can think of is Al Franken, and even then his past caught up to him and ended his career in politics.

Banking on celebrity isn't a specifically Republican or Democratic thing. Neither party is immune or reliant on it; it's a marginal trend. To the slight disproportion that Republicans have a nasty tendency to run celebrities for office, Democrats have a slight disproportion for the nasty tendency to turn officeholders into celebrities.

But since you were curious and having trouble: Mark Kelly, Cynthia Nixon, Melissa Gilbert, and Kevin Johnson all recently ran for office primarily or exclusively on their celebrity status. If you're stretching the qualification to include Lake (local news anchor), you'd have to include Nick Clooney, Abby Broyles, and Liz Mathis too.

In fact, here's a whole list of dozens of news anchors from both parties:
https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/local_tv_anchors_ran_for_office_list.php

In my defense, I had not heard of many of those people (save for Kelly and Nixon, of course). But in Kelly's case, he was active in his wife's gun control initiatives. It's a little different than him just running for office as a famous astronaut.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #487 on: October 01, 2022, 10:17:48 AM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

The calculus is clearly that Lake will walk all over Hobbs or embarrass her in the debate. Hobbs is very timid and by the book and will wilt if Lake raises stuff like the racial discrimination lawsuit.

At the same time, Hobbs also says Lake spews lies that make debating impossible. I guess that is, pardon the pun, debatable, but there’s more to her decision than just that (it’s also the above).

I agree with you, though, that it is cowardly, and that if Hobbs were well prepared and confident she could expose Lake as a fraud. Alas, that will not happen before Nov and we will be stuck with this highly irritating race that she potentially loses (probably loses? I am more down on this race than most, as I get a lot of bad vibes, Hillary vs Trump ish flashbacks).

I mean, not to Hobbs's fault, she probably would still lose the debate even if she was a great debater. Lake is insane but she has decades of media training. Even if Hobbs was fantastic in a debate, it wouldn't be easy to just "expose Lake as a fraud"
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #488 on: October 01, 2022, 11:58:07 AM »

What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

The calculus is clearly that Lake will walk all over Hobbs or embarrass her in the debate. Hobbs is very timid and by the book and will wilt if Lake raises stuff like the racial discrimination lawsuit.

At the same time, Hobbs also says Lake spews lies that make debating impossible. I guess that is, pardon the pun, debatable, but there’s more to her decision than just that (it’s also the above).

I agree with you, though, that it is cowardly, and that if Hobbs were well prepared and confident she could expose Lake as a fraud. Alas, that will not happen before Nov and we will be stuck with this highly irritating race that she potentially loses (probably loses? I am more down on this race than most, as I get a lot of bad vibes, Hillary vs Trump ish flashbacks).

I mean, not to Hobbs's fault, she probably would still lose the debate even if she was a great debater. Lake is insane but she has decades of media training. Even if Hobbs was fantastic in a debate, it wouldn't be easy to just "expose Lake as a fraud"

No, it's her fault.  She's run a horrible campaign and likely blown a very winnable race.  The debate issue is just a symptom of widespread dysfunction throughout Hobbs' campaign.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #489 on: October 01, 2022, 12:03:30 PM »

Jesus Christ, the polls are tied. You folks have set your expectations way too high for Arizona of all places.
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Pollster
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« Reply #490 on: October 01, 2022, 02:08:48 PM »

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #491 on: October 01, 2022, 02:19:19 PM »

D's haven't elected a D Gov in AZ since Janet Napolitano and she was Latina that's what's wrong with Hobbs she is facing a Trend in AZ that hasn't happened since 2011
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #492 on: October 01, 2022, 02:41:25 PM »

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

Because clearly if a generic D politician running again someone with decades of media training is not running ahead in the polls similar to a popular, incumbent astronaut and veteran running again a cryptobro, the campaign is sh**t.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #493 on: October 01, 2022, 03:13:10 PM »

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

By July, over two-thirds of her total campaign staff had quit due to a toxic work environment, so there's that Tongue
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #494 on: October 01, 2022, 04:02:40 PM »

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cg41386
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« Reply #495 on: October 01, 2022, 04:02:51 PM »

D's haven't elected a D Gov in AZ since Janet Napolitano and she was Latina that's what's wrong with Hobbs she is facing a Trend in AZ that hasn't happened since 2011

She is Italian.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #496 on: October 01, 2022, 07:21:38 PM »

Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

Thank you. There's a lot of "Hobbs is running a terrible campaign" but it appears more of just a narrative that people online have created versus what is actually happening in reality.

Hobbs is apparently running a horrific campaign and yet in most of the AZ polls, she's had the top net favorability among all 4 candidates.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #497 on: October 01, 2022, 10:22:22 PM »

Why is Lake holding up so much better than Mastriano?
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #498 on: October 01, 2022, 10:29:02 PM »

Why is Lake holding up so much better than Mastriano?
Because she was a former TV News anchor, and with that comes a much more familiar and warm face than the unknown white supremacist looking Mastriano. Even if she has the same policies, people see her as less of a threat. There’s voters out there, who are voters who would generally vote against a person with Lake’s policies but like ‘Kari’ enough that they’ll vote for her. It’s pathetic, but true.
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« Reply #499 on: October 01, 2022, 10:32:09 PM »

Why is Lake holding up so much better than Mastriano?

1. Shapiro is a stronger candidate than Hobbs. (I don't think Hobbs is that weak, Shapiro is just very strong.)

2. Lake is riding on the goodwill of being a charismatic TV personality, while Mastriano was defined as a MAGA extremist fairly early on.

3. Pennsylvania is slightly more Democratic-leaning than Arizona.

4. Arizona has only had one Democratic governor since 1991. Pennsylvania has had an equal number of Republican and Democratic governors since 1955.
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