Arizona megathread

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

Except I would argue that Hobbs is actually out there meeting voters and doing things while Lake is simply just saying crazy things. Where is the actual campaigning from Lake?

This entire premise of "Lake says insane things >>>> she's such a good campaigner" is seriously galaxy brain

I'm not saying that Lake is a good candidate. She would not be saying insane things such as this if she were. But Hobbs isn't a strong candidate either, and someone like Stanton would probably be faring better against Lake at this point. I know that you don't think Hobbs' decision not to debate Lake makes no difference, but that would have been the perfect opportunity to expose Lake for what she is.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

Except I would argue that Hobbs is actually out there meeting voters and doing things while Lake is simply just saying crazy things. Where is the actual campaigning from Lake?

This entire premise of "Lake says insane things >>>> she's such a good campaigner" is seriously galaxy brain

I'm not saying that Lake is a good candidate. She would not be saying insane things such as this if she were. But Hobbs isn't a strong candidate either, and someone like Stanton would probably be faring better against Lake at this point. I know that you don't think Hobbs' decision not to debate Lake makes no difference, but that would have been the perfect opportunity to expose Lake for what she is.

You don't need a debate to expose her for what she is. She's literally doing that on her own in every single appearance she makes.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

Except I would argue that Hobbs is actually out there meeting voters and doing things while Lake is simply just saying crazy things. Where is the actual campaigning from Lake?

This entire premise of "Lake says insane things >>>> she's such a good campaigner" is seriously galaxy brain

I'm not saying that Lake is a good candidate. She would not be saying insane things such as this if she were. But Hobbs isn't a strong candidate either, and someone like Stanton would probably be faring better against Lake at this point. I know that you don't think Hobbs' decision not to debate Lake makes no difference, but that would have been the perfect opportunity to expose Lake for what she is.

You don't need a debate to expose her for what she is. She's literally doing that on her own in every single appearance she makes.

I think it would have driven the point home even further.

[Ferguson97]

I think Lake has a decent shot at winning, but the whole "Hobbs is running a historically bad campaign" seems like the kind of thing that's not going to age very well, like it's more based on 'vibes' than anything concrete.

[wbrocks67]

I think Lake has a decent shot at winning, but the whole "Hobbs is running a historically bad campaign" seems like the kind of thing that's not going to age very well, like it's more based on 'vibes' than anything concrete.

This. I followed Hobbs on Twitter b/c I was curious what she was up to. She's definitely not a flashy candidate and I wish she was more forceful, but she's definitely been out there and doing the grunt work.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The reason people think Lake is outperforming expectations is that there were none.

[AZdude]

Well Hobbs is finally on the air, so that's a good thing.  Both she and Kelly are pushing border security - I don't know if that's the best place to fight this battle on.  I've said even before 2018/20 that AZ is actually a sort of purplish, live-and-let-live state (1st in the country to beat a gay marriage ban!) until you start in on immigration, and then a significant portion of the state simply goes insane.

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

I guess it's to her credit(?) that she's not "moderating" like Masters and putting up tons of TV ads showing what a normal person she is.  But it's why so many people in AZ are concerned about the Hobbs campaign - she HAS to expose Lake as nuts to win.  I thought a debate would have been a great chance to do that.  Sinema vs McSally was certainly talked about quite a bit afterwards.

[Devout Centrist]

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

It's a very risky strategy to cede the airwaves to your opponent, especially when your own favorables aren't all that rosy. Not to mention that Lake's comments are garnering her negative attention in the Arizona Republic and in some local news reporting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Well Hobbs is finally on the air, so that's a good thing.  Both she and Kelly are pushing border security - I don't know if that's the best place to fight this battle on.  I've said even before 2018/20 that AZ is actually a sort of purplish, live-and-let-live state (1st in the country to beat a gay marriage ban!) until you start in on immigration, and then a significant portion of the state simply goes insane.

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

I guess it's to her credit(?) that she's not "moderating" like Masters and putting up tons of TV ads showing what a normal person she is.  But it's why so many people in AZ are concerned about the Hobbs campaign - she HAS to expose Lake as nuts to win.  I thought a debate would have been a great chance to do that.  Sinema vs McSally was certainly talked about quite a bit afterwards.

For all her flaws, Sinema was so chill during the 2018 Senate debate which I think def helped her in the end.

If you watch the debate it's actually kinda funny because McSally clearly wanted to go in to fight and get some one-liners in but Sinema was so clam and straightforward it made her impossible to accomplish and McSally ended up just looking kind of weird.

[xavier110]

Well Hobbs is finally on the air, so that's a good thing.  Both she and Kelly are pushing border security - I don't know if that's the best place to fight this battle on.  I've said even before 2018/20 that AZ is actually a sort of purplish, live-and-let-live state (1st in the country to beat a gay marriage ban!) until you start in on immigration, and then a significant portion of the state simply goes insane.

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

I guess it's to her credit(?) that she's not "moderating" like Masters and putting up tons of TV ads showing what a normal person she is.  But it's why so many people in AZ are concerned about the Hobbs campaign - she HAS to expose Lake as nuts to win.  I thought a debate would have been a great chance to do that.  Sinema vs McSally was certainly talked about quite a bit afterwards.

This analysis is dead on. Everything you mention is correct. Esp the point about crucifying Lake as bonkers. If I were running Hobbs’s campaign, this would be a scorched earth, relentless effort. At this point, literally anything suggesting sharper elbows from Hobbs would inspire confidence. That FBI phone tweet was my first indication of a pulse or a staffer having a working brain.

That Lake has barely touched the racial discrimination stuff suggests to me that they think they will coast along to a win.

It is mind boggling to me that Lake is deploying a better GE strategy than Thiel strategist Masters, but it is what it is.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Well Hobbs is finally on the air, so that's a good thing.  Both she and Kelly are pushing border security - I don't know if that's the best place to fight this battle on.  I've said even before 2018/20 that AZ is actually a sort of purplish, live-and-let-live state (1st in the country to beat a gay marriage ban!) until you start in on immigration, and then a significant portion of the state simply goes insane.

I thought it was strange albeit understandable due to name rec that Lake is not on the air, now I think it's deliberate.  It looks like she's running a two-pronged strategy - 1, work the base heavily with rallies and insane rhetoric on right-wing social media, 2, stay quiet on a statewide level and bank on "low-info" voters filling in the oval for Fox 10 Sweetheart Kari Lake.

I guess it's to her credit(?) that she's not "moderating" like Masters and putting up tons of TV ads showing what a normal person she is.  But it's why so many people in AZ are concerned about the Hobbs campaign - she HAS to expose Lake as nuts to win.  I thought a debate would have been a great chance to do that.  Sinema vs McSally was certainly talked about quite a bit afterwards.

Arizona is a border state, they actually have to deal with the consequences of the Democrats' open borders policies and the hundreds and thousands of "asylum seekers" flooding into this country, unlike sanctuary cities up north. Of course the Republicans win on this issue. As for Hobbs and the debate, as much as Lake is bat**** crazy, she's also very charismatic and has quite the stage presence compared to Hobbs. A debate might not be a great idea for her.

[wbrocks67]

I think I've seen everything on this forum now when suddenly a candidate running no ads for the GE is a good decision.

The galaxy brain people are bending themselves into to act like Lake is running a formidable campaign.

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

[Roll Roons]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

[wbrocks67]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

[xavier110]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

[wbrocks67]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

Well yes, Kelly is an incumbent so I don't expect her to match his numbers. Arizona is literally freshly purple, so why would Hobbs be "running away with this"? Lake is a psychopath but she's not going to get blown out - anyone thinking that is being delusional.

Please tell me where Lake is running a good campaign. Once again, this thread is trying to convince me that even things like Lake spending $0 on TV is a good campaign move that is helping her.

There seems to be this very odd thing of giving Lake so much credit when in reality she's running a horrific GE campaign.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

I think Kari Lake is a good example of someone who is a flawed candidate but a good campaigner. She's scandal ridden, says lots of outrageous things and is generally crazy but she knows how to turn all that off when she has to.

[Pollster]

One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

I think Kari Lake is a good example of someone who is a flawed candidate but a good campaigner. She's scandal ridden, says lots of outrageous things and is generally crazy but she knows how to turn all that off when she has to.

Lake's core strength is that she has immense experience on camera and delivering lines to an audience in clear, concise, and compelling ways (Mark Ronchetti, Maria Elvira Salazar, Ashley Hinson, etc. are the same way) - a good speaker can make anything sound good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

I actually think this is smart. Even though the youth vote tends to lean overwhelmingly Dem and that is unlikely to change in a place like AZ just a narrowing of the margin could be important and activating young R voters early means you are more likely to have them for longer in future elections (Rmbr too Lake herself is relatively young and would probably stay in politics after being Gov if she wins).

Furthermore, there's a lot of evidence to support not only that people are more likely to vote R as they age, but also R voters tend to be activated later. Generally, more liberal voters tend to activate by being involved in certain activities at college from an early age whereas Rs tend to not be involved in those activities or don't go to college at all. Just becuase they don't vote doesn't mean they don't exist.

It def helps that Lake herself is both a familiar face and relatively young for a politician. I think this makes it a bit easier for her to message to some of these more conservative younger folks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

Well yes, Kelly is an incumbent so I don't expect her to match his numbers. Arizona is literally freshly purple, so why would Hobbs be "running away with this"? Lake is a psychopath but she's not going to get blown out - anyone thinking that is being delusional.

Please tell me where Lake is running a good campaign. Once again, this thread is trying to convince me that even things like Lake spending $0 on TV is a good campaign move that is helping her.

There seems to be this very odd thing of giving Lake so much credit when in reality she's running a horrific GE campaign.

To add on to this, I would argue that not spending TV money is equally costing to her as not debating is to Hobbs. By not running the ads early, it really gives Hobbs a chance to define both herself and Lake early and the longer that happens the more patchwork Lake has to do.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

My point is that a lot of the conjecture around Hobbs running such a bad campaign isn't really backed up by a lot of evidence. Meanwhile, Lake is not even running ads on TV and yet she's supposedly running a better campaign for... reasons? Come on.

Stop… you say this every post. There IS evidence.

1) She’s typically under-running Kelly by 4-5 points.

2) If Kari is so weak and Hobbs is running a good/ not bad campaign, Lake should be posting Christine O’Donnell/Todd Akin numbers and Hobbs should be starting to pull away with this. She’s not. If Hobbs were running a decent campaign, Lake should be considered toxic/radioactive by now to the Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters of recent years… she’s not.

3) Almost every Arizonan here keeps saying Hobbs is a mediocre candidate and campaigner.

I say this and WANT her to win. I voted Robson in the primary since I knew this was not going to be a fun GE.

Well yes, Kelly is an incumbent so I don't expect her to match his numbers. Arizona is literally freshly purple, so why would Hobbs be "running away with this"? Lake is a psychopath but she's not going to get blown out - anyone thinking that is being delusional.

Please tell me where Lake is running a good campaign. Once again, this thread is trying to convince me that even things like Lake spending $0 on TV is a good campaign move that is helping her.

There seems to be this very odd thing of giving Lake so much credit when in reality she's running a horrific GE campaign.

To add on to this, I would argue that not spending TV money is equally costing to her as not debating is to Hobbs. By not running the ads early, it really gives Hobbs a chance to define both herself and Lake early and the longer that happens the more patchwork Lake has to do.

Lake is already pretty defined. People have known her on the airwaves for years, and her stances on Trump are very clear already. If anything Hobbs needs to be making a case for why she should be governor besides "Kari Lake is crazy and I'm not her".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Lake is overperformed we haven't elected a D Gov since Janet Napolitano but we have to wait til EDay to be sure anyways we know TRAFALGAR is trying to prop up JD Vance and Lake and other polls shows Hobbs and Ryan ahead

Users need to show patience until we vote , we are in the Early voting days now we are past the Approvals

[wbrocks67]

Masters doesn't seem to realize he's probably doing Hobbs a favor here by getting involved.

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1571595144088162304

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1571850756080238592