Arizona megathread

[Devout Centrist]

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari.

How did you convince them to vote for Biden in 2020?

[Duke of York]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

Agreed. I’m calling the election likely R at this point.

[AZdude]

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari.

How did you convince them to vote for Biden in 2020?

My parents have always been pro-military (hence the like for Mark Kelly), and Trump lost their votes by daring to attack Saint McCain.  Frankly, I believe that's what cost Trump the state, not some huge love for Joe Biden.  From there, I played up Biden's seeming common-sense response to COVID and the empathy which he does so well, especially contrasted with the MAGA crowd.  But honestly, Trump did most of the work for me.

Anybody other than Kari Lake espousing that stupidity would be a slam dunk to get them to vote for Hobbs.  But I have hope I can sway them before the election.  I'm going to hit them with Lake badmouthing John McCain as hard as I can.

[wbrocks67]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

Agreed. I’m calling the election likely R at this point.

The most hilarious part about this narrative is the idea that Lake is running some top tier campaign. Where is the evidence of this? Hobbs is doing nothing to actively hurt herself. This forum for whatever reason acts as if Lake is some genius politician with tons of ads and appearances and Hobbs has not been seen in public in 3 months

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think the issue with Hobbs and the debate has less to do with her doing the debate itself, though she lacks the excuse that Fetterman had, but more because it lets Lake characterize her as a "coward" or that she's hiding something from voters. It then puts Hobbs on defense and keeps Lake in charge of the election's narrative which should be about Lake and her extreme anti-choice, Big Lie peddling views.

[wbrocks67]

I think the issue with Hobbs and the debate has less to do with her doing the debate itself, though she lacks the excuse that Fetterman had, but more because it lets Lake characterize her as a "coward" or that she's hiding something from voters. It then puts Hobbs on defense and keeps Lake in charge of the election's narrative which should be about Lake and her extreme anti-choice, Big Lie peddling views.

But where though? People outside of Twitter do not care about the debate and unless Lake is running ads calling Hobbs a coward, then where are people hearing that narrative?

Hobbs has a way bigger opening with naturally national news like abortion rights, i.e. Graham today. That kind of stuff makes a lot bigger noise than not doing or doing a debate

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro all Hobbs needs to do is call lake a Sussy Baka

Then she has this in the bag 100%

[Utah Neolib]

Bro all Hobbs needs to do is call lake a Sussy Baka

Then she has this in the bag 100%

sussus amgous

[wesmoorenerd]

Ok jeez I agree that Hobbs has been underwhelming so far but the idea that she's DOA or this is a Likely R race or something like that is just asinine. This is still arguably likelier to flip than WI

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1570047350801940480

[Devout Centrist]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

Agreed. I’m calling the election likely R at this point.

Likely R? Likely R? You are delusional. This is Safe R.

[wbrocks67]

She needs to do more Fetterman-ing like this

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1569855262231777280

[Progressive Pessimist]

She needs to do more Fetterman-ing like this

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1569855262231777280

Not bad.

And yes, I agree. Fetterman's use of twitter has garnered a lot of media attention to Oz's detriment that helped with the effort of defining him early as out-of-touch. Hobbs probably has some catching up to do in that regard, but maybe it could help dilute whatever inexplicable charms Lake seems to have over people who should know better.

[Cyrusman]

Why did 538 give Hobbs such a big boost in their ratings the last two days? Is it literally just because of one poll by echelon insights showing Hobbs +10 which we all know is not true? If so, their method sucks and bases almost everything on these polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why did 538 give Hobbs such a big boost in their ratings the last two days? Is it literally just because of one poll by echelon insights showing Hobbs +10 which we all know is not true? If so, their method sucks and bases almost everything on these polls.

We hav to rmbr though 538 is a model, not a person or some god that can see the future. If a model DOESN’T shift in Dems favor after a D+10 poll then it probably is a poor model and honestly so far 538 model hasn’t gotten too carried away with favorable Dem senate polls

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

For all Hobbs campaign misteps, Lake sure is doing all she can to keep Hobbs hopes alive lol

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lake seems to have qualms about attaching herself to Finchem, possibly the most fringe candidate in the entire country, and Hobbs needs to capitalize on that. If Arizonans don't find Lake extreme on her own, surely associating so closely with an Oath Keeper should send that message, right?

[xavier110]

Lake seems to have qualms about attaching herself to Finchem, possibly the most fringe candidate in the entire country, and Hobbs needs to capitalize on that. If Arizonans don't find Lake extreme on her own, surely associating so closely with an Oath Keeper should send that message, right?

The average voter has no idea who Finchem is

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

For all Hobbs campaign misteps, Lake sure is doing all she can to keep Hobbs hopes alive lol

I was told that Kari Lake was the one running a good campaign by the people in this thread though

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

For all Hobbs campaign misteps, Lake sure is doing all she can to keep Hobbs hopes alive lol

I was told that Kari Lake was the one running a good campaign by the people in this thread though

I mean she's attacking Hobbs on the right issues but her election denialism is a turnoff

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lake seems to have qualms about attaching herself to Finchem, possibly the most fringe candidate in the entire country, and Hobbs needs to capitalize on that. If Arizonans don't find Lake extreme on her own, surely associating so closely with an Oath Keeper should send that message, right?

The average voter has no idea who Finchem is

Relative to other Secretary of State races around the country, even others where election deniers are running, I would argue that Finchem is attracting the most attention. And if voters aren't all that familiar, perhaps Hobbs could help make him more well-known.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1570887898819624962

Perhaps not an optimal message for a swing state.

It's ironic that she said this, considering that she was part of the media (as a local news anchor) for many years, and that is the reason why she is widely known in Arizona. It's unfortunate that she has such a good chance at winning here, since Hobbs can't campaign her way out of a paper bag.

Except I would argue that Hobbs is actually out there meeting voters and doing things while Lake is simply just saying crazy things. Where is the actual campaigning from Lake?

This entire premise of "Lake says insane things >>>> she's such a good campaigner" is seriously galaxy brain