Arizona megathread

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Looks like the debate is still scheduled. Saving the best for last.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What is the rationale for Hobbs not debating? If you really believe your opponent is incompetent or extreme, a debate is a great way to show that.

I was watching a few Arizona news clips I could find online and some phrased it as Hobbs not wanting to debate while others painted it as if neither could agree to the style of debate with Lake wanting a more traditional debate and Hobbs wanting a townhall style debate.

Also, does anyone know to what extent Hobbs has done Hispanic outreach? That is very improtant for any Dem running in the Southwest, especially if they aren't Hispanic themselves. I can def see a scenario where Hobbs roughly matches Biden in most suburbs but poor Hispanic turnout costs her.

[xavier110]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Hobbs is a bad candidate, she should just debate and debunk Lake and her lies. If anything Lake will look ridiculous. That said, with even GOP leaning polls having it as a tie, Hobbs might be up 2-3 at the moment.

Dems need an all out ad blitz against Lake on her abortion ban along with overturning the election. This should be a national priority.

Would love to see an ad blitz that can take down Lake. At this rate she’s gonna coast on low info goodwill for being on TV for years.

All I see are Mark Kelly ads lol.

What is the rationale for Hobbs not debating? If you really believe your opponent is incompetent or extreme, a debate is a great way to show that

Yes but that is also the reason why Hobbs says she refuses to debate her, so make sense of that one for me…

[Devils30]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Hobbs is a bad candidate, she should just debate and debunk Lake and her lies. If anything Lake will look ridiculous. That said, with even GOP leaning polls having it as a tie, Hobbs might be up 2-3 at the moment.

Dems need an all out ad blitz against Lake on her abortion ban along with overturning the election. This should be a national priority.

Would love to see an ad blitz that can take down Lake. At this rate she’s gonna coast on low info goodwill for being on TV for years.

All I see are Mark Kelly ads lol.

The total abortion ban is still a very good ace in the hole for AZ Dems...don't kid yourself. It's very salient with a GOP legislature.

[xavier110]

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Hobbs is a bad candidate, she should just debate and debunk Lake and her lies. If anything Lake will look ridiculous. That said, with even GOP leaning polls having it as a tie, Hobbs might be up 2-3 at the moment.

Dems need an all out ad blitz against Lake on her abortion ban along with overturning the election. This should be a national priority.

Would love to see an ad blitz that can take down Lake. At this rate she’s gonna coast on low info goodwill for being on TV for years.

All I see are Mark Kelly ads lol.

The total abortion ban is still a very good ace in the hole for AZ Dems...don't kid yourself. It's very salient with a GOP legislature.

Im agreeing with you. I just haven’t seen anything really from Lake or Hobbs re: ads. It’s the Mark Kelly show. Would love Hobbs abortion themed ads.

[Devout Centrist]

I've seen a good number of anti-Lake/pro-Hobbs digital ads. Maybe Hobbs is waiting to make TV ad buys? I'm not sure.

[Devils30]

I've seen a good number of anti-Lake/pro-Hobbs digital ads. Maybe Hobbs is waiting to make TV ad buys? I'm not sure.

Hobbs for all her faults still should be in a decent financial position, she isn't going to get drowned out on air.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1569061944895885312?t=XLhkPIKn2ySGFTPEUtyz...

The left as a whole is pretty much against any dialogue that would platform "harmful" speech, so it's unfortunately not surprising that Democratic politicians are falling into that trap. It's pathetic, and the voters will likely see it that way.

[Real Texan Politics]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

[Devout Centrist]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

LMAO the way this race is being positioned online is just completely different than the reality of this race. All this talk of "Hobbs running a terrible campaign!" when she's still up slightly in the average and still seems to be doing more campaigning and ad-running than Lake is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

It's tied

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

LMAO the way this race is being positioned online is just completely different than the reality of this race. All this talk of "Hobbs running a terrible campaign!" when she's still up slightly in the average and still seems to be doing more campaigning and ad-running than Lake is.

She's literally refusing to debate her opponent. It's a bad look, period! It makes her look like she has something unsavory to hide or worse that she feels like she is above the idea of debating. And it will register with voters soon, it takes time for stuff like this to get out. When Cunninghams scandal came out it took a while for it to actually affect the polling(the polls were always wrong but I remember several Cunningham +8-9 polls and those numbers rarely appeared after the affair broke out).

[Calthrina950]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

I wouldn't go that far, but I'm starting to seriously think that a split outcome between Kelly and Lake is likely.

[AZdude]

As Centrist and Xavier have noted, Hobbs has virtually zero TV presence currently.  (Lake doesn't either, but as I've said she doesn't really need it due to her name recognition.)

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari."

The abortion angle?  Doesn't move them at all.  The nutcase election rhetoric?  According to them, she doesn't really believe it, so it's okay.

At this point I wonder if I'm going to have to sneak over there and steal their ballots or I don't know, threaten to not be their son anymore if they vote for Lake.  Ugh.  I was really hoping Hobbs would "man up" and debate in order to show Lake's stupidity off.  Really, really stupid move on her part to chicken out like that.

[xavier110]

As Centrist and Xavier have noted, Hobbs has virtually zero TV presence currently.  (Lake doesn't either, but as I've said she doesn't really need it due to her name recognition.)

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari."

The abortion angle?  Doesn't move them at all.  The nutcase election rhetoric?  According to them, she doesn't really believe it, so it's okay.

At this point I wonder if I'm going to have to sneak over there and steal their ballots or I don't know, threaten to not be their son anymore if they vote for Lake.  Ugh.  I was really hoping Hobbs would "man up" and debate in order to show Lake's stupidity off.  Really, really stupid move on her part to chicken out like that.

Similar situation with my Robson voting 70 year old father, though he sounds more partisan than your parents. Everything I hear and see tells me Lake is going to win, which makes me nervous about Finchem, Hamadeh, etc.

Honestly may consider moving next year.

[MT Treasurer]

As Centrist and Xavier have noted, Hobbs has virtually zero TV presence currently.  (Lake doesn't either, but as I've said she doesn't really need it due to her name recognition.)

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari."

The abortion angle?  Doesn't move them at all.  The nutcase election rhetoric?  According to them, she doesn't really believe it, so it's okay.

A confident and familiar female candidate with a lot of experience in charming and playing an audience is hard to paint as "extremist" regardless of her actual policy positions or past statements, who would have thought? (They’re probably right about Lake's 'Trumpism' being entirely performative, though.)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So people in AZ does Kelly look in better shape than Hobbs?

[Calthrina950]

As Centrist and Xavier have noted, Hobbs has virtually zero TV presence currently.  (Lake doesn't either, but as I've said she doesn't really need it due to her name recognition.)

Tying into what I said earlier and about what was asked about Kelly-Lake voters?  My parents, for two.  They're just in love with her.  I managed to cajole them into voting for Biden, and they really like Mark Kelly, but I can't currently dissuade them from voting for "Kari."

The abortion angle?  Doesn't move them at all.  The nutcase election rhetoric?  According to them, she doesn't really believe it, so it's okay.

A confident and familiar female candidate with a lot of experience in charming and playing an audience is hard to paint as "extremist" regardless of her actual policy positions or past statements, who would have thought? (They’re probably right about Lake's 'Trumpism' being entirely performative, though.)

Lake's background as a longtime local news anchor certainly is benefiting her greatly as a political candidate, similar to how Ronald Reagan's background as a Hollywood actor benefited him as a candidate. By contrast, Hobbs (like Jimmy Carter) is not a great public speaker and seems to lack self-confidence. Image matters with many voters, probably more so than policy, and especially with low-info voters who don't follow politics in depth.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

LMAO the way this race is being positioned online is just completely different than the reality of this race. All this talk of "Hobbs running a terrible campaign!" when she's still up slightly in the average and still seems to be doing more campaigning and ad-running than Lake is.

She's literally refusing to debate her opponent. It's a bad look, period! It makes her look like she has something unsavory to hide or worse that she feels like she is above the idea of debating. And it will register with voters soon, it takes time for stuff like this to get out. When Cunninghams scandal came out it took a while for it to actually affect the polling(the polls were always wrong but I remember several Cunningham +8-9 polls and those numbers rarely appeared after the affair broke out).

Comparing Cunninghams scandal to ... not doing a debate is a ridiculous comparison and you know it.

[AZdude]

I wonder if there are any AZ posters here from Tucson or Yuma.  The Phoenix media market covers the entire northern part of the state, so I think their perspective would be interesting to hear as they haven't been exposed to Lake before the campaign.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not sure how this is a good look for Hobbs. Even though Lake is an election denier, it would benefit Hobbs to point out the absurdity of that claim rather than run from it. Now there is a good shot an election denier could win Arizona, which will undoubtedly be a swing state in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure how this is a good look for Hobbs. Even though Lake is an election denier, it would benefit Hobbs to point out the absurdity of that claim rather than run from it. Now there is a good shot an election denier could win Arizona, which will undoubtedly be a swing state in 2024.

The way people here really think one single gubernatorial debate is going to swing an election...

[prag_prog]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

[Mr. Smith]

What a mess of a candidate Hobbs is turning out to be. She is gonna lose this race against that nutcase Lake

It's 2022 and Trump failed to be re-elected. This was likely set in stone anyway.

Besides, Perdue won election night after refusing Ossoff. We really don't know how that run-off would have gone if Trump had just acted competent.

So color me skeptical that this in particular is what matters.