Arizona megathread
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Author Topic: Arizona megathread  (Read 67172 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #300 on: September 05, 2022, 10:10:47 PM »

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

What is your view of the campaign situation in Arizona right now? Between Lake and Masters, who is running the better campaign and who has more enthusiasm from their supporters? And what about Hobbs? She decided to pull out of the debate with Lake, which I see as a foolish decision on her part.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #301 on: September 05, 2022, 10:57:23 PM »

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

What is your view of the campaign situation in Arizona right now? Between Lake and Masters, who is running the better campaign and who has more enthusiasm from their supporters? And what about Hobbs? She decided to pull out of the debate with Lake, which I see as a foolish decision on her part.
In a vacuum Masters is running a stronger campaign, because he is at least pivoting to the general. Some Kari Lake signs from the primary have been taken down and replaced with new ones that have Trump-endorsed at the top. The thing is though Lake has a lower bar to clear since she isn't facing an incumbent and Arizona is redder on the state level.
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Spectator
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« Reply #302 on: September 06, 2022, 04:37:34 AM »

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

What is your view of the campaign situation in Arizona right now? Between Lake and Masters, who is running the better campaign and who has more enthusiasm from their supporters? And what about Hobbs? She decided to pull out of the debate with Lake, which I see as a foolish decision on her part.
In a vacuum Masters is running a stronger campaign, because he is at least pivoting to the general. Some Kari Lake signs from the primary have been taken down and replaced with new ones that have Trump-endorsed at the top. The thing is though Lake has a lower bar to clear since she isn't facing an incumbent and Arizona is redder on the state level.

Why is it a given that “Arizona being redder at the state level” would apply to this race for some reason? Kathy Hoffman and Katie Hobbs herself both won statewide state-level races and did better than Biden in the process. And Dems have won a few statewide seats on the Public Service Commission.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #303 on: September 06, 2022, 06:46:43 PM »

Hobbs getting local news media attention. While she's not getting flashy updates on Twitter, at least she's getting local coverage for being out there. I think that's where there's a disconnect from people on Twitter acting as if she's not doing anything.

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Cyrusman
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« Reply #304 on: September 07, 2022, 04:17:28 PM »

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

Is it possible for a Republican to lose Maricopa but still win the state? Trump barely lost it by 2 points and that was enough for him to lose the state even though he did well elsewhere.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #305 on: September 07, 2022, 05:14:25 PM »

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

Is it possible for a Republican to lose Maricopa but still win the state? Trump barely lost it by 2 points and that was enough for him to lose the state even though he did well elsewhere.

Given that Maricopa has been moving left faster than the state, there def is a window for it. Another way to think about it is Arizona outside of Maricopa is pretty likely to vote R anyways, so Dems winning Maricopa by at least a point or two is prolly necessary.

Another factor to consdier too is that in midterms, small town or rural Hispanics tend to have the biggest drop-off in turnout which won't help Dems in non-Maricopa AZ.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #306 on: September 07, 2022, 08:38:37 PM »

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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #307 on: September 07, 2022, 08:58:00 PM »

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

Is it possible for a Republican to lose Maricopa but still win the state? Trump barely lost it by 2 points and that was enough for him to lose the state even though he did well elsewhere.
Yes, but they can't lose it by much since it's still right of the nation. It would have to be like D+2 or less. If you take out Maricopa and Pima county Arizona is only like an R+16 state compared to when you remove Clark and Washoe county, Nevada becomes like R+39.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #308 on: September 07, 2022, 09:34:58 PM »


Looks like Lake wants to debate an empty podium Ossoff style.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #309 on: September 08, 2022, 07:35:52 AM »

I think the only way not debating actually has an impact is if you can have a visual with it - i.e., Ossoff standing alone with an empty podium. So I get why Lake would want to do that.

Can't imagine Hobbs will let that happen though. That would be serious campaign malpractice.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #310 on: September 08, 2022, 08:21:31 AM »

Honestly Hobbs should just pay for these videos to be run nonstop on TV at this point. Lake does the work for her

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #311 on: September 08, 2022, 09:55:46 AM »

Yup, the new line of talking points is just "every result I don't like must be voter fraud." These people are so deranged, it's almost causing me cancer. Hopefully enough AZ voters are smart enough to reject this moron.
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Spectator
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« Reply #312 on: September 08, 2022, 12:02:39 PM »

Honestly Hobbs should just pay for these videos to be run nonstop on TV at this point. Lake does the work for her



Obama-Trump voters are weirdos, news at 10.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #313 on: September 08, 2022, 04:26:55 PM »

Honestly Hobbs should just pay for these videos to be run nonstop on TV at this point. Lake does the work for her



Obama-Trump voters are weirdos, news at 10.

I don't mean this in the wrong way, but I think a lot of Obama-Trump voters are very vulnerable to messaging. The common theme between both Obama and Trump is they were good messengers to common folks. I think this also is why they're more vulnerable to conspiracy theories if they can be messaged well.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #314 on: September 10, 2022, 02:07:01 PM »


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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #315 on: September 10, 2022, 02:57:45 PM »

Honestly Hobbs should just pay for these videos to be run nonstop on TV at this point. Lake does the work for her



What a goddamn attention-seeking fool. Will be interesting to see how Brnovich handles all this 'evidence' lol.
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AZdude
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« Reply #316 on: September 10, 2022, 11:34:33 PM »

As utterly deranged as her words are, I HATE how familiar and comforting her voice is.  My parents watched Fox 10 religiously, so I heard her voice every weekday while I was doing my homework and even later when I was visiting.  I keep expecting to hear about "record temps" or "Suns/Cards fever grips the Valley" and then this demonic crap spews out.

Ballots get mailed Oct 12, and AZ is a huge VBM state.  I really hope Hobbs can kick it into gear here.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #317 on: September 11, 2022, 12:07:56 AM »

As utterly deranged as her words are, I HATE how familiar and comforting her voice is.  My parents watched Fox 10 religiously, so I heard her voice every weekday while I was doing my homework and even later when I was visiting.  I keep expecting to hear about "record temps" or "Suns/Cards fever grips the Valley" and then this demonic crap spews out.

Ballots get mailed Oct 12, and AZ is a huge VBM state.  I really hope Hobbs can kick it into gear here.

To add on to this, there def is somewhat of a double-standard in politics where women, particularly attractive younger women of smaller stature are automatically perceived to be more moderate, caring, or just in touch than men. I think this is why a lot of the attacks that work against Mastriano, a big muscular bald dude, fall flat against Lake who falls into the aforementioned category.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #318 on: September 11, 2022, 12:34:14 AM »

As utterly deranged as her words are, I HATE how familiar and comforting her voice is.  My parents watched Fox 10 religiously, so I heard her voice every weekday while I was doing my homework and even later when I was visiting.  I keep expecting to hear about "record temps" or "Suns/Cards fever grips the Valley" and then this demonic crap spews out.

Ballots get mailed Oct 12, and AZ is a huge VBM state.  I really hope Hobbs can kick it into gear here.

To add on to this, there def is somewhat of a double-standard in politics where women, particularly attractive younger women of smaller stature are automatically perceived to be more moderate, caring, or just in touch than men. I think this is why a lot of the attacks that work against Mastriano, a big muscular bald dude, fall flat against Lake who falls into the aforementioned category.
I would say that, probably, most female candidates are net benificaries from gender-related double standards in politics.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #319 on: September 11, 2022, 12:59:58 AM »

As utterly deranged as her words are, I HATE how familiar and comforting her voice is.  My parents watched Fox 10 religiously, so I heard her voice every weekday while I was doing my homework and even later when I was visiting.  I keep expecting to hear about "record temps" or "Suns/Cards fever grips the Valley" and then this demonic crap spews out.

Ballots get mailed Oct 12, and AZ is a huge VBM state.  I really hope Hobbs can kick it into gear here.

To add on to this, there def is somewhat of a double-standard in politics where women, particularly attractive younger women of smaller stature are automatically perceived to be more moderate, caring, or just in touch than men. I think this is why a lot of the attacks that work against Mastriano, a big muscular bald dude, fall flat against Lake who falls into the aforementioned category.
I would say that, probably, most female candidates are net benificaries from gender-related double standards in politics.

For other things, def, but it’s easier for a woman to come off as less threatening. There have been studies which have shown folks percieve female politicians to be more bipartisan for instance.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #320 on: September 11, 2022, 01:37:23 AM »

fwiw Lake would be eaten alive for this bullsh.it outside of AZ. The local news angle is her saving grace here.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #321 on: September 11, 2022, 03:47:12 PM »

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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #322 on: September 11, 2022, 03:50:53 PM »

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #323 on: September 11, 2022, 03:57:58 PM »

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.
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Devils30
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« Reply #324 on: September 11, 2022, 04:13:39 PM »

What is Hobbs playing at? She's an idiot, and she's going to cost us the 2024 election.

I mean, unless there is still going to be an event where Lake stands next to an empty podium, this is not going to matter. Voters don't really seem to care that much about debates like this.

Hobbs is a bad candidate, she should just debate and debunk Lake and her lies. If anything Lake will look ridiculous. That said, with even GOP leaning polls having it as a tie, Hobbs might be up 2-3 at the moment.

Dems need an all out ad blitz against Lake on her abortion ban along with overturning the election. This should be a national priority.
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