Arizona megathread

[Cyrusman]

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

The thing though when it comes to migration to Arizona is a lot of it are right leaning people from California or your more libratrian  types. This was definitely accelerated during covid as California had some of the strictest lockdowns while AZ was open. I went to bars in AZ in December 2020 while at the same time Newsom had a cerfew law in California. Lots of right leaning Californians went to AZ for “freedom”. AZ also isn’t really a culturally liberal state that’s attractive to left leaning people. That whole Wild Wild West culture isn’t a big attraction for liberals. Now Colorado on the other hand, that’s a state o can see more and more left leaning people from the west coast moving to. Not saying it’s only republicans moving to Arizona but this isn’t a situation like northern Virginia where you have a bunch of D.C. Democrats and government works moving to NOVA.

This has been discussed before but migrants from Cali to Arizona are still extremely unlikely to skew R as a whole, even if they prolly are more conservative than Cali as a whole. I think folks overestimate the number of folks who choose to move in large part because of politics. I do agree though Pheonix has always been more conservative than places like Denver and Austin and will likely continue to be more conservative for a variety of reasons. It was one of the last major metros that still net Rs votes until very recently (even Dallas and Houston metros net Clinton votes in 2016).

Just think about it logically. Moving is a huge deal that takes a lot of time and money. Most people just don't ahve the means to move even if they're very very unhappy with state politics. People only tend to move for work, family, or when they've moved signigicantly on the economic latter.

I mean I'm not saying they are overwelmingly Republican, but this notion that all migrants are going to skew Democrat is not accurate either. There has definitely been a number of right leaning Californians who have moved to neighboring states especially during and post covid and I know AZ is one of the main states they move too. These are probably more so So Cal people. Again not saying its highly skewed towards Republicans but I don't think by any means its skewed towards Democrats. Probably a wash at best and that was just in response to the previous poster assuming migration is automatically a plus for Democrats everywhere.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

The thing though when it comes to migration to Arizona is a lot of it are right leaning people from California or your more libratrian  types. This was definitely accelerated during covid as California had some of the strictest lockdowns while AZ was open. I went to bars in AZ in December 2020 while at the same time Newsom had a cerfew law in California. Lots of right leaning Californians went to AZ for “freedom”. AZ also isn’t really a culturally liberal state that’s attractive to left leaning people. That whole Wild Wild West culture isn’t a big attraction for liberals. Now Colorado on the other hand, that’s a state o can see more and more left leaning people from the west coast moving to. Not saying it’s only republicans moving to Arizona but this isn’t a situation like northern Virginia where you have a bunch of D.C. Democrats and government works moving to NOVA.

This has been discussed before but migrants from Cali to Arizona are still extremely unlikely to skew R as a whole, even if they prolly are more conservative than Cali as a whole. I think folks overestimate the number of folks who choose to move in large part because of politics. I do agree though Pheonix has always been more conservative than places like Denver and Austin and will likely continue to be more conservative for a variety of reasons. It was one of the last major metros that still net Rs votes until very recently (even Dallas and Houston metros net Clinton votes in 2016).

Just think about it logically. Moving is a huge deal that takes a lot of time and money. Most people just don't ahve the means to move even if they're very very unhappy with state politics. People only tend to move for work, family, or when they've moved signigicantly on the economic latter.

I mean I'm not saying they are overwelmingly Republican, but this notion that all migrants are going to skew Democrat is not accurate either. There has definitely been a number of right leaning Californians who have moved to neighboring states especially during and post covid and I know AZ is one of the main states they move too. These are probably more so So Cal people. Again not saying its highly skewed towards Republicans but I don't think by any means its skewed towards Democrats. Probably a wash at best and that was just in response to the previous poster assuming migration is automatically a plus for Democrats everywhere.

It's really something impossible to say. But consider Biden voters outnumber Trump voters 2:1 in Cali. That would mean that Biden voters, including those who are pretty a-political, would have half the chance of moving to AZ than Trump voters.

Also generally, Dems tend to be more transient than Rs cause they skew younger and lack families. Like literally most every growing part of the US (including Pheonix) has shifted D in the past 2 decades while nearly every shrinking area has shifted R. That's not a coincidence.

I don't doubt there may be some folks who moved from Cali to Arizona cause they don't like Cali's politics, but are they really enough to outnumber your folks moving for more "normal" reasons?

[Progressive Pessimist]

For the first half of the decade the AZ Dems built up their base with hispanic support and turnout. It wasn't enough obviously but the hope was that population growth and demographic shifts would eventually carry that coalition through. That's how they knocked out Arpario, and Clinton nearly took Yuma county in 2016. They never even imaged the suburban shift until 2016, where while Hillary was stuck at around Obama's vote share, Trump fell sharply and only got 48% or so. They saw an opening in the suburbs and in 2018 started attempting to win over those voters. They were able to combine those coalitions and Sinema finally broke through due to Trump's massive unpopularity with both groups at the time. Then 2020 comes around and Biden focuses almost exclusively on the suburbs and succeeded. He managed to flip Maricopa county and win the state for the first time since 1996. However, Trump improved upon his 2016 performance with hispanics in Arizona and across the country. It didn't really help because the turnout was very high that year across the board, and Biden still netted more votes with them than Clinton did in 2016 and managed to win the state.

However, the shift should be concerning for Democrats, because hispanics are the lowest racial/ethnicity turnout group and the Dems still need them be successful statewide. And in 2022, in a midterm environment with a bad economy, along with the lack of a polarizing Trump as there was in 2018 hispanic turnout likely will decrease as it is an extremely low propensity voting group. And if Lake/Masters continue to improve upon Trump with them there might not be enough votes for Dems to win the state anymore as hispanics overall are still a more D group than college whites. The only cure is to improve margins with these voters, which is possible but difficult, because Biden already already maxed out among the Gary Johnson voters or anyone repulsed with Trump. Now their strategy is just wait for migration to increase the college white share of the electorate now that "demographics is destiny" has gone out the window after 2020.

The thing though when it comes to migration to Arizona is a lot of it are right leaning people from California or your more libratrian  types. This was definitely accelerated during covid as California had some of the strictest lockdowns while AZ was open. I went to bars in AZ in December 2020 while at the same time Newsom had a cerfew law in California. Lots of right leaning Californians went to AZ for “freedom”. AZ also isn’t really a culturally liberal state that’s attractive to left leaning people. That whole Wild Wild West culture isn’t a big attraction for liberals. Now Colorado on the other hand, that’s a state o can see more and more left leaning people from the west coast moving to. Not saying it’s only republicans moving to Arizona but this isn’t a situation like northern Virginia where you have a bunch of D.C. Democrats and government works moving to NOVA.

This has been discussed before but migrants from Cali to Arizona are still extremely unlikely to skew R as a whole, even if they prolly are more conservative than Cali as a whole. I think folks overestimate the number of folks who choose to move in large part because of politics. I do agree though Pheonix has always been more conservative than places like Denver and Austin and will likely continue to be more conservative for a variety of reasons. It was one of the last major metros that still net Rs votes until very recently (even Dallas and Houston metros net Clinton votes in 2016).

Just think about it logically. Moving is a huge deal that takes a lot of time and money. Most people just don't ahve the means to move even if they're very very unhappy with state politics. People only tend to move for work, family, or when they've moved signigicantly on the economic latter.

I mean I'm not saying they are overwelmingly Republican, but this notion that all migrants are going to skew Democrat is not accurate either. There has definitely been a number of right leaning Californians who have moved to neighboring states especially during and post covid and I know AZ is one of the main states they move too. These are probably more so So Cal people. Again not saying its highly skewed towards Republicans but I don't think by any means its skewed towards Democrats. Probably a wash at best and that was just in response to the previous poster assuming migration is automatically a plus for Democrats everywhere.

It's really something impossible to say. But consider Biden voters outnumber Trump voters 2:1 in Cali. That would mean that Biden voters, including those who are pretty a-political, would have half the chance of moving to AZ than Trump voters.

Also generally, Dems tend to be more transient than Rs cause they skew younger and lack families. Like literally most every growing part of the US (including Pheonix) has shifted D in the past 2 decades while nearly every shrinking area has shifted R. That's not a coincidence.

I don't doubt there may be some folks who moved from Cali to Arizona cause they don't like Cali's politics, but are they really enough to outnumber your folks moving for more "normal" reasons?

I can't say it enough, but politics is not a realistic concern for people to upend their entire lives and permanently move. I doubt there are too many Californians moving to Arizona for political reasons as well. Politics comes second to economic or familial reasons. People are pretty practical when it comes to how they want to live their everyday lives. The real conservative retirees are those who are moving to Florida in droves every year from northern states, and even then, them being conservative is incidental to why they're moving.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1565817964896497664?t=uaVZA9QRZwNQaT0Dfxm...

[S019]

Not really a good look for Hobbs, I'm not sure why she's doing this.

[xavier110]

Not really a good look for Hobbs, I'm not sure why she's doing this.

I honestly cannot tell if this is driven more by her or her people advising and attempting to protect her.

Either way, they’re all morons. When she loses, it’s on her and her team. It’ll be extra embarrassing if Kelly wins and Ds still win a couple other statewide races.

Fontes (SOS), Mayes (AG), and Hoffman (School Superintendent) are all EAGER to destroy their whack job opponent… Hobbs… MIA, cowering…

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not really a good look for Hobbs, I'm not sure why she's doing this.

I honestly cannot tell if this is driven more by her or her people advising and attempting to protect her.

Either way, they’re all morons. When she loses, it’s on her and her team. It’ll be extra embarrassing if Kelly wins and Ds still win a couple other statewide races.

Fontes (SOS), Mayes (AG), and Hoffman (School Superintendent) are all EAGER to destroy their whack job opponent… Hobbs… MIA, cowering…

It would be so weird if Lake wins as Democrats sweep most other statewide positions. At least they could possibly defend against any future attempt for Lake to try and change her state's electoral votes in 2024 if they don't go how she wants them to. If Lake absolutely has to end up winning, that wouldn't be the worst trade-off.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What a coward, it appears like she was actually felt intimidated by Kari Lake. Respect to Mark Kelly, he is willing to debate Masters at least.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, I'd also like to see her debate at least once, but people really overrate these things. Unless you have a photo of Lake and an empty podium for Hobbs, most normal people don't care about this. Just look at the hullabaloo from Oz about Fetterman and that news cycle lasted a day at most.

I do think Hobbs needs to ramp up her campaign - she appears to be getting out there and talking to voters but doesn't seem to be doing actual rallies or big campaign type stuff. A debate would actually have helped her expose Lake for the loon she is, but maybe their calculus is that it just gives Lake more time to spew her nonsense.

Hobbs seems to be kind of giving Lake the Warnock/Walker treatment. (how Warnock has been way too nice to Walker up to this point instead of exposing him). She meanwhile needs to give Lake the Oz treatment instead.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is embarrassing

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ron DeSantis refusing to debate Charlie Crist ought to make this less of a problem, right? I mean, if an opponent not wanting to debate is such a victory then Crist has momentum!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What a coward, it appears like she was actually felt intimidated by Kari Lake. Respect to Mark Kelly, he is willing to debate Masters at least.

Well Lake is a former TV anchor who knows how to perform well in a debate, while Mark Kelly is a former veteran and astronaut facing a crypto-bro from California.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John Fetterman refused to Debate Oz too, that was bad that's why his polls went down from 51/39 to 48/44 I don't expect him to lose but he could

[Duke of York]

Im just going to go ahead and call the election for Lake at this point. Hobbs is running a dreadful campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Im just going to go ahead and call the election for Lake at this point. Hobbs is running a dreadful campaign.

Lol EDay is 60 days and Early voting is heading in a couple of weeks it's too early to give up now but you don't have to Donate anymore if you are it's only 60 days left what can 5.00 or our small dollar donation do with 60 days left

[SnowLabrador]

I'm pissed at Hobbs, she's throwing American democracy away. It's her fault if she loses to Lake, who should be an easy opponent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In Hobbs case, a lot of this could be on her campaign staff rather than *her* (though her a bad campaign staff is still kinda her fault. Many of the problems R candidates such as Dixon, Walker, and Oz have are based on things they’ve said or done unfiltered. Hobbs flaws are more about how she campaigns.

The Hobbs campaign seems to believe that winning in AZ basically means contrasting Lakes insanity with sanity, however, that doenst mean you shouldn’t campaign and stay on the low to the point where you don’t debate. That just comes across as you being out of touch or not caring.

[wbrocks67]

Im just going to go ahead and call the election for Lake at this point. Hobbs is running a dreadful campaign.

Lake is running a dreadful campaign. I could argue the same thing about her - what has she done since winning the primary?

[Duke of York]

Im just going to go ahead and call the election for Lake at this point. Hobbs is running a dreadful campaign.

Lake is running a dreadful campaign. I could argue the same thing about her - what has she done since winning the primary?

Hobbs is running an even worse campaign it seems.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Lol at the Atlas hive-mind declaring Hobbs DOA after one news cycle in September. Meanwhile, all respectable polling has put her at least a few points ahead of Lake and there's absolutely zero scenario where Kelly wins w/o Hobbs imo.

[Spectator]

Who actually has watched a non-presidential debate ever? Lolol

No one gives a sh**t. They’re more concerned whether it will rain tomorrow or if Bitcoin will go up.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Who actually has watched a non-presidential debate ever? Lolol

No one gives a sh**t. They’re more concerned whether it will rain tomorrow or if Bitcoin will go up.

I routinely watch local debates and even debates in foreign countries and different languages.

Then again, I'm also an Atlas nerd.

[wbrocks67]

Lol at the Atlas hive-mind declaring Hobbs DOA after one news cycle in September. Meanwhile, all respectable polling has put her at least a few points ahead of Lake and there's absolutely zero scenario where Kelly wins w/o Hobbs imo.

Yeah, this whole "Hobbs is DOA, running a terrible campaign" seems built on no actual facts, considering we've had 3 polls of this race since mid-August and the most credible outlet (Fox) had Hobbs up by 3.

I'm not gonna say Hobbs is running some fantastic A+ campaign but she's pretty much been out there talking to voters and has been running TV ads. I'd like to see her with a bit more exposure, but we'll see if she kicks it into higher gear now that Labor Day has come and gone.

From what I can tell, Lake hasn't been doing much of anything. Has she been out campaigning or running ads?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who actually has watched a non-presidential debate ever? Lolol

No one gives a sh**t. They’re more concerned whether it will rain tomorrow or if Bitcoin will go up.

I routinely watch local debates and even debates in foreign countries and different languages.

Then again, I'm also an Atlas nerd.

Atlas does have a history of overestimating how much voters care about most things.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.