Arizona megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I still think Yee or Salmon wins. Trump's endorsement doesn't always clinch the victory  for someone, as we've seen before

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1541552686398640129

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hobbs was leading 50/45 anyways so it's gonna hurt Rs Dobbs

[wbrocks67]

I was told Kari Lake wasn't an insane extremist though?

[GeorgiaModerate]

More from Lake's interview with Baier, which covers the drag queen story as well as voter fraud allegations.   Worth watching.

https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1541556000876109824

[wbrocks67]

"I will pursue legal action against this drag queen."

I mean these lines just write themselves.

also WTF is that lighting/filter she's using? lmao

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

[S019]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

Yeah, I still expect the national environment bails them out this year, but there are eerie parallels to a state GOP in a certain former swing state which trended quickly away from Republicans during the Trump era.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note with these inflated polls many of them are RV polls , and the 50/45 Hobbs number was inflated but do was the RI 2 poll Rs aren't winning RI in a blue wall 303 map, Sununu and Scott are the only two Rs that are gonna win, Golden is leading

RV don't always favor D's, sometimes they benefits Rs

[wesmoorenerd]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

I wasn't thrilled with the new AZ map initially, but there's a good chance it looks better by the end of the decade. If Stanton holds on this year, AZ-04 is almost certainly safe for the rest of the decade considering it's already fairly blue and rapidly trending further in that direction. Biden won both AZ-01 and AZ-06 and both seats trended blue by a not insignificant amount in 2020. If those trends continue, a Democratic majority in the House delegation could end up being pretty durable by the end of the decade.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1541875784628850688

It's too late for his name to be removed from the ballot.

[Matty]

Props to salmon

Honestly should be a much more common practice.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

With the main difference of slightly lower education and just being more historically conservative, AZ is quite simillar to CO demographically, and geopolitically, being a mostly urban state with a lot of conservative suburbs and exurbs.

I wasn't thrilled with the new AZ map initially, but there's a good chance it looks better by the end of the decade. If Stanton holds on this year, AZ-04 is almost certainly safe for the rest of the decade considering it's already fairly blue and rapidly trending further in that direction. Biden won both AZ-01 and AZ-06 and both seats trended blue by a not insignificant amount in 2020. If those trends continue, a Democratic majority in the House delegation could end up being pretty durable by the end of the decade.

Still by then, AZ Wouk Ds prolly be a true D leaning state, and there 6th seat is slim pickings as AZ-02 is pretty hyper partisan with no strong D gain potential and AZ-08 is p R.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1541875784628850688

It's too late for his name to be removed from the ballot.

Yas queen! We are one step closer to my dream of Gold Digger Gov. Karrin Taylor Robson being realized.

[2016]

Kari Lake takes down Bret Baier who should be removed from FOX NEWS effective immediatedly

https://twitter.com/ACTBrigitte/status/1541554782682468353

https://rumble.com/v1a7s4c-june-27-2022.html?mref=60qud&mc=17xi1

Time to take down FRAUDS like Bret Baier!

[LabourJersey]

Picking a fight with FOX NEWS as a Republican candidate seems like a bad move, in my humble opinion.

[xavier110]

Salmon insta-endorsed Robson today.

KTR FTW!

[SnowLabrador]

This new thread title cracks me up. That comic was my childhood.

[wbrocks67]

The GOV race is a clown car at this point

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542302130685575168

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1542309453181161473

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think we know that the GA, CO, PA, and AZ GOP are the most insane state parties. Although for three of the four the national environment will save them somewhat (PA) to completely (GA)

[xavier110]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

[Duke of York]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

you saying you think she will lose the general?

[xavier110]

Hobbs declined to participate in the Dem debate, which I somewhat understand, since she will easily win the primary against Lopez.

HOWEVER, she is a terrible speaker and debater and needs as much practice as possible to fend off Lake or Robson. Both will likely walk all over her in a general.

She’s been running a lackadaisical campaign. Her unwillingness to be tested is going to lead to her downfall — and perhaps an even more embarrassing performance at the polls against a GOP nominee who will have flaws to exploit.

you saying you think she will lose the general?

Very likely, regardless of GOP nominee. Which is why defeating Kari in the primary should be goal no. 1 for any rational person in the state of Arizona. Salmon dropping out leaves Robson a real opening.

(For the Arizonans - It takes two seconds to update your registration to be able to vote against her if you’re not already an I or R.)

[Pyro]

The GOV race is a clown car at this point

Highlight reel from the debate proving this statement correct:

https://twitter.com/endajodowd/status/1542915789845561346

[Devout Centrist]

The AZ GOP really seems to be imploding rn, especially if Lake wins.

They aren't even making a half baked effort to appeal to voters outside their base which even in a good year overall for the GOP they'll likely still need.

I wouldn't be suprised if soon AZ has 2 D senators, a 5D-4R House delegation, dem majorities in both chambers, and Dems in most row offices. Ofc Rs will likely hold the state supreme court for a while which is quite conservative and 7-0 conservative majority. One thing I am unhappy about is the new AZ congressional map doesn't give Dems a lot of room to grow past 5 representatives.

The bolded will be considerably more difficult; the maps adopted by the redistricting commissions are decidedly not D friendly. Statewide wins, though, entirely possible.