When We Stand Divided - A Story of the Second American Civil War

[OBD]

When the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 for Biden in a hotly contested ruling, Democrats across the nation let out a collective sigh of relief. Trump’s challenging of mail-in votes in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin had made it to the highest court in the land, but had fallen just short despite a 6-3 conservative majority. Bidenworld, which had put off the transition process due to a bitter legal fight, quickly pivoted to preparing to take office on January 20, and reached out to Trump staffers to belatedly begin work on a transition team. After four years of unprecedented political strife, America at last appeared to be turning over a new leaf.

However, little did they know that Trump would still stand intransigent, along with his legions of loyal supporters. Little did they know that the next four years and beyond would bring pain, turmoil, and grief on a level not seen since the 1860s. Little did they know that the ruling in Trump v. Biden would be the first step of the end of American life as they knew it.

Little did they know that the Second American Civil War was just around the corner.

(note: this is another abortive OBD timeline - I’ll do my best to see this through to the finish, but y’all know how I am with completing timelines. For a preview as to how this will play out, check out the Alternate Presidents thread.)

[OBD]

December 2020

It was a snowy December day in the capital when Chief Justice John Roberts handed down one of the most important U.S Supreme Court decisions in history. And in contrast with the temperature, tempers rapidly flared in the White House. Trump himself was obviously furious, launching into a borderline-deranged tweetstorm lambasting Justices Roberts and Gorsuch for turning on him while continuing to cast doubt on the results in the contested states. In almost any other year, this would have been staunchly repudiated by both the American people and the Republican establishment. However, tension from the monthlong limbo of election results combined with near-fanatical support for Trump from right-wing groups would instead make Trump’s ramblings the trigger for further unrest - and violence. In the days after the ruling - which came just a week before the Electoral College was scheduled to convene - pro-Trump protesters converged in both major cities and small towns, clashing with often left-leaning counterprotesters with often-deadly results. On December 15, protests in Los Angeles, California quickly escalated into riots, with 10 protestors killed and 119 injured. Scenes like these repeated across the nation, especially in cities where demonstrators had congregated before.

But, as civil strife reached unprecedented levels, Republican politicians did not urge calm - they schemed. In an idea cooked up by an adviser and approved by Trump, Republican governors and legislatures were sent an urgent message from the President - instructions to not recognize the “illegitimate Democratic mail-in votes”, and instead certify and/or recognize results that would indicate a Trump re-election. This bold move, stunning many politicians on both sides, recieved rabid support from Trump’s dedicated base, rapidly putting Republican legislators under extreme pressure to acquiesce. And Trump’s gambit paid off - despite furious opposition from Democrats, multiple Southern and Plains states passed resolutions refusing to acknowledge the official electoral college count - instead recognizing a Trump 289-Biden 249 map with Trump-appointed (and officially uncounted) electors appointed from Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In the four aforementioned states, bitter fights broke out between the Republican legislators and Democratic executive officials, and while Wisconsin and Pennsylvania saw Governors Tony Evers and Tom Wolf block pro-Trump elector appointments, the Republican legislatures had successfully produced the electors needed for Trump’s plan to succeed. By Christmas Day, the United States had two differing Electoral College counts, with 57 electors in four key states (enough to swing the election) contested. Under the official count, Biden had won 306-232, but under the count recognized by a majority of Trump states, Trump had won 289-249. The stage was set, and the metaphorical ball of civil war was on the roll.

[OBD]

Interlude 1

Political Situation in the United States of America, January 1, 2021

Red: States recognizing the Official Electoral College Count
Dark Blue: States recognizing the Trump Electoral College Count*
Medium Blue: State Legislature supermajority passed resolutions recognizing Trump Electoral College Count, blocked by Governors
Green: One or both State Legislatures passed resolutions recognizing Trump Electoral College Count, blocked by Governors
Light Blue: Resolution recognizing Trump Electoral College Count under consideration

*John Bel Edwards, Democratic Governor of Louisiana, ultimately folded to pressure from the Republican legislature and tacitly approved the state's resolution through inaction

Quotes

"The Phony Democrats tried to steal the election, but the great ELECTORAL COLLEGE has stopped them! FOUR MORE YEARS!" - Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States

"Kamala and I condemn this blatantly transparent attempt by Republican legislatures to rig this election for Donald Trump. We urge the American people to oppose this power-grab, and instead work together to restore the soul of this nation." - Joe Biden, President-Elect of the United States

"The people of Michigan voted decisively for change in the White House. I will not sign this farce of a resolution that shamelessly overrules the voices of nearly three million Michiganders." - Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan

"THE DEMOCRATS AND SWAMP CREATURES ARE ASSEMBLING TO OUST PRESIDENT TRUMP AND INSTALL A RADICAL SOCIALIST AS PRESIDENT! WE MUST STOP THEM! RISE UP, MY FELLOW PATRIOTS! KENTUCKY, PENNSYLVANIA, KANSAS - RISE UP AND DEFEAT YOUR RADICAL SOCIALIST GOVERNORS!" - Alex Jones, Far-Right Talk Show Host

"Here in California, we stand strong for democracy. Californians will not tolerate this free and fair election getting stolen by shady operators who want a return to the chaos, pain, and turmoil of the past four years. As your Governor, I assure you that California will not settle for anything less - we will see to it that Joseph Robinette Biden is sworn in as President on January 20." - Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, signing resolution recognizing the official Electoral College results

"My god, what have we done?" - quote attributed to unnamed Republican state official, commonly believed to be Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger

[OBD]

January 2021, Former

As a New Year dawned, America had become a nation torn effectively in two - with two President-elects for the first time in history. Jubilation from victory on the Democratic side quickly turned to horror as multiple states refused to recognize the results, and anger and suspicion regarding the election on the Republican rapidly morphed into brutal determination to protect the result favorable to them. Across the nation, protests quickly turned into riots as often-armed demonstrators clashed in major urban areas, with police often powerless to maintain the peace (and sometimes blatantly siding with pro-Trump protestors). On January 5, a massive protest in Portland, Oregon morphed into a massacre after armed right-wing groups opened fire on a rowdy crowd of anti-Trumpers, and 189 lay dead or injured before Portland Police intervened. And, the unrest wasn’t limited to the cities - in rural areas, extremist militias began assembling in preparation for what they thought was the liberation of America from “swamp creatures”.

It was these militias that would kick off the war, beginning in the state of Kentucky. Despite Republican supermajorities in the legislature, the state had not yet recognized Trump as the victor of the elections, thanks to a desperate alliance between Democratic Governor Andy Beshear and a small contingent of disaffected Republican state legislators. Beshear’s stand enraged many in the conservative state, and with Frankfort in deadlock reactionary groups determined that extrajudicial intervention was needed to bring the state firmly into the Trump camp. On January 11, aided by pro-Trump Republicans, these groups stormed the state capitol. Beshear, who had learned of the plot just minutes before its inception, called the Kentucky National Guard on alert, but it was too late. After clashing with Beshear-loyal state police units (which had been decimated by defections), the militiamen successfully captured Beshear and nearly all of his legislative allies - though Lieutenant Governor Jacqueline Coleman and a few others managed to successfully flee to Louisville with loyal Kentucky National Guardsmen. The new government in Frankfort, sans Democrats, quickly inaugurated state Attorney General Daniel Cameron as Governor, and promptly passed a pro-Trump resolution just hours later. In Louisville, backed by Mayor Greg Fischer, self-proclaimed Acting Governor Coleman denounced the “blatant coup”, demanding the release of Beshear and the arrest of the conspirators by federal forces. President Trump, though, would refuse to help - instead praising the “freedom lovers in Kentucky” for deposing their “radical socialist Governor who helped Biden steal the election”.

The Kentucky Massacre, as the January 11 events came to be known as, signalled a fundamental change in America - radical groups on both sides of the political spectrum were now acting in the open, violently, with the consent of elected officials. Americans across the nation began to realize that no peaceful resolution for the power crisis was forthcoming.

The Bidenworld war room realized this too. Despite Vice President Biden’s hopes that Trump would step down from the brink and concede peacefully, many of his advisors, including Senator Kamala Harris, were less optimistic. As Inaguration Day approached, they prepared for the worst - phoning leaders both domestic and abroad for support, while taking steps to ensure that they, and fellow Democratic leaders, would not share the same fate as Governor Beshear. With Washington, D.C in chaos, most of the Democratic delegation in Congress had regrouped at the U.N Complex in New York City, where they were placed under 24-hour protection by the New York National Guard under orders from Governor Andrew Cuomo. Democratic governors across the country also began taking steps to protect themselves - actions that paid dividends, as plots against Governors Whitmer (Michigan), Brown (Oregon), and Cooper (North Carolina) were foiled.

January 20 dawned a cold, sunny day on Washington D.C - with the city’s neighborhoods in varying degrees of chaos and destruction. Near-constant protests had sown a wide path of destruction across the District’s commercial areas, and both President Trump and President-Elect Biden had steered clear of the city for fear of safety. Smoke from burning fires and buildings was visible from the Reagan airport, and cast a grey pallor over the city. And as Biden was inaugurated in a quiet, private ceremony in New York while Trump swore the oath again in front of the cameras at his Mar-A-Lago estate, the last hopes of a return to normalcy faded away.

[OBD]

January 2021, Latter (The Phony War)

On January 21, almost no state was ready for war. Most Americans were still shell-shocked from the apparent fracture of the federal government, and most state governments were equally off-balance. Consequently, the initial phase of the war became known as the “Phony War”, after the period in World War II between the invasion of Poland and the invasion of France - no organized warfare between official state government occured, and the limited skirmishes that occurred were largely due to the actions of independent militias.

During the “Phony War”, the few unaligned state governments either took action or succumbed to their internal fractures. Despite deep partisan fractures, some divided state governments managed to unite by negotiation or force and choose a side. Under military pressure from California and political pressure from the state’s Biden supporters, as Governor Gavin Newsom deployed National Guard units on the Colorado River, the state of Arizona aligned with Biden’s New York government. Similarly, the moderate coalition in Topeka, led by Governor Laura Kelly, was forced to yield amid threats from local militias - fearing for their safety, Kelly and a majority of the Democratic caucus took a deal with the Republican majority that allowed them to flee to Denver. Lastly, in Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine reluctantly aligned the state with Mar-a-Lago due to pressure from the legislature and his political allies.

The five states remaining - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina - were all strategically located states with Democratic governors and Republican legislators, and consequently, all five states’s governments fractured. In three of the five, the Republican legislature walked out (somewhat) peacefully and formed rival governments in friendlier territory - St. Cloud in Minnesota, Green Bay in Wisconsin, and Marquette in Michigan. However, in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the first fireworks of the Civil War would erupt. Governor Tom Wolf, who feared getting Besheared by active far-right militias in Central Pennsylvania with the aid of his state’s Republican legislature, ordered the arrest of said legislators for treason with the aid of loyal state police and National Guard members. However, moles informed the targeted Republicans just hours before the operation began, allowing them to flee to Altoona with the support of Trumpist militias. In North Carolina, the Republican legislative supermajority outright ignored Governor Roy Cooper as protests roiled Durham, Raleigh, and Charlotte - and on January 27, these protests boiled over into an outright riot, with anti-Trump demonstrators breaking into the Capitol as pro-Cooper police officers looked on or clashed with their pro-Legislature compatriots. With the public on Cooper’s side, the North Carolina Republicans were forced to flee to Asheville with loyal North Carolina National Guard units and pro-Trump paramilitaries. In these five states, the onus quickly fell on local county governments (that were often nonpartisan) to pick sides, and huge swathes of these states became either no-man’s-land or islands of support for one side marooned in a sea of opposition. Additionally, several of these islands in already-decided states refused to yield - backed by hundreds of thousands of armed and unarmed protesters, Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta declared fealty to the New York government, while fleeing legislators in Washington and Oregon declared a pro-Trump “State of Lincoln” east of the Cascades with the support of local “3 Percent” militias.

Two states - Utah and Alaska - chose a different path. With the predominantly Mormon government in Salt Lake City leery of Trump, moderate Governor Spencer Cox saw an opportunity to keep Utah out of the civil war while also making the state a safe haven for LDS practitioners. In a vote supported by most state Democrats and Republicans, Cox signed a bill declaring Utah’s neutrality, while also opening the state to any LDS members seeking safety from the upcoming civil war. Alaska, meanwhile, was isolated from the rest of the U.S, and even the most pro-Trump politicians in the legislature quickly realized that their main trading partners were almost all aligned with Biden. Consequently, Alaska also declared neutrality, hoping to avoid the worst of the civil war.

As was implied earlier, the military also rapidly began to fracture. The deeply conservative military leadership might have supported Trump in another universe, but many in the Pentagon also blamed his feckless disrespect of the Constitution for triggering the civil war, and were skeptical of the cries of voter fraud by his backers, made without evidence. Consequently, most of the military backed Biden, whom they saw as the legitimate President-Elect, against what Chief of Staff Mark Milley classified the “Trump insurgency”. However, many pro-Trump servicemen refused to listen - a vocal minority of military leadership split off to support the Trump government, and multiple National Guardsmen defected to the Trump government. Overall, the military split roughly 55-45 for the New York Government, with the ratios varying across individual states (which were also affected by the allegiance of said states’s governors).

Due to the chaos now engulfing the nation (especially contested states), a refugee crisis began to emerge. Biden supporters (as well as minorities) in deeply conservative territories feared for their safety, and similarly, Trump supporters in liberal cities sought to escape to areas recognizing their leader’s government. The sheer volume of movement - nearly 300,000 Mormons alone sought refuge in Utah, while over 2 million others made for safer political ground - stunned nearly all observers.  Interstates across the nation became clogged with millions of political refugees, and a humanitarian crisis emerged as thousands of cars were stuck in brutal snowstorms and clashes between motorists turned rest stops into warzones while further clogging up the Interstates. While data from wartime America untainted by bias is rare, most academics today believe that the American Refugee Crisis was responsible for over 20,000 civilian deaths.

[OBD]

Interlude 2

Political Situation in the United States of America, February 1, 2021


Quotes

"For the safety of the people of Arizona, House Speaker Russell Bowers and I have come to an understanding with Governor Newsom of California to recognize the government in New York. While I understand that many Arizonans will not be pleased with this decision, I urge you to stay calm and stay peaceful for this state's future wellbeing." - Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona

"Atlanta will not accept the rule of a despot! Atlanta will not accept tyranny! Together, we will defend our city from those who seek to bring our democracy harm!" - Keisha Lance Bottoms, Mayor of Atlanta

"The government of Georgia will not yield to a small minority of extralegal vagabonds. We are confident in our President Trump and will take decisive action to restore the legitimacy of his Presidency to all of Georgia." - Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (speaking from provisional capital in Gainesville)

"SLEEPY JOE AND HIS SOCIALIST FRIENDS WANT CIVIL WAR! I CALL ON ALL TRUE PATRIOTS TO JOIN US AND STOP THEM!" - Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States

"I stand here today as the President of a nation broken by internal strife, by illegitimate actors who seek to do us harm. As your President, I will do my best to restore the soul of this nation peacefully, but we must not - and will not - surrender to tyranny." - Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States

"As we've done before, Arkansas stands ready to defend American values and all our nation holds dear! We WILL defend our President, and bring the socialist Democrats to justice for fracturing out nation so!" - Tom Cotton, Senator for Arkansas

[OBD]

February 2021

February 2021 was ultimately a month of consolidation, and was thus a relatively calm month in relation to the rest of the Civil War. The month was highlighted by the rise of Illinois’s Minutemen Militia. Illinois was under solidly Democratic governance - however, much of the state Democratic Party’s strength was derived from Chicago, and downstate Illinois was relatively conservative. Consequently, when Governor J.B Pritzker and Mike Madigan chose to side Illinois with the New York government, many downstaters were enraged. This culminated in the formation of the Minutemen Militia - a loose coalition of Trumpist armed groups that sought to ‘liberate’ Southern Illinois from the hold of Chicago. On February 15, they made their move - riding into Springfield, Bloomington, Decatur, and various other downstate cities in black armored pickup trucks, clashing with local police forces loyal to Pritzker. Thanks to defections from the Illinois National Guard, their job was easy - by February 22, most of downstate Illinois was under their control, and Pritzker’s forces had been pushed back to a defensive line along Interstate 39 and State Route 17, cutting off Chicago from its breadbasket and isolating the Biden-loyal city of St. Louis, a major coup for the Mar-a-Lago government. The Minutemen Militia, which received support from both rogue Illinois National Guard units and the Indiana National Guard, took under 100 casualties, while units loyal to the Illinois state government lost around 250 soldiers in the chaotic retreat. However, Pritzker would strike back before the month closed, taking the Chicago suburb of Gary from Indiana relatively bloodlessly on the 25th.

The Illinois debacle dealt a major morale blow to the New York government, while energizing the pro-Trump contingent. Emboldened that nearly three-quarters of a state could fall to their forces in just a week, Trump’s war room began making plans to land a decisive blow on their opposition. This plan, only recently declassified, was appropriately named Operation Knockout - calling for Trumpist militias and National Guard units from Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia to launch an offensive on the Northeast, with the ultimate target being New York City itself. The initial targets of Operation Knockout was the Pennsylvanian city of Scranton - in addition to being Biden’s hometown, thus holding much symbolic value, the capture of Scranton would secure Northeastern Pennsylvania for the Mar-a-Lago government and open the road to New York City. Additionally, plans were made to take out Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf in Harrisburg, for an auxiliary offensive on Philadelphia. If Knockout succeeded, Trump’s strategists concluded, Biden’s East Coast government would be fractured in two and demoralized - top Trump adviser Rudy Giuliani told the press that the civil war would be “over by summer”.

[OBD]

Is Indianapolis just accepting that they are in Trump country?

There is significant unrest in Indianapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Dallas, and many other cities in Trump territory - however, as many pro-Bideners already fled the cities and due to a harsh police response, the unrest hasn't metasized into outright revolt. Yet.

You will tell us about Vermont

(Jedi mind trick hand wave)

Governor Phil Scott was the first Republican governor to sign a resolution recognizing the legitimacy of Biden's presidency, and Vermont is firmly in the Biden camp. The Vermont National Guard is currently deployed in defense of the Pennsylvanian front.

This is probably just me, but killing off Biden/Kamala/Trump/Pence, and letting someone else (possibly someone with no political affiliation at all, like McRaven) become President seems like the endgame here.

Yeah nah, Trump (and to a lesser degree Biden) will remain important figures in this timeline for the foreseeable future.

[OBD]

the North Carolina Republicans were forced to flee to Asheville

NCGOP holing themselves up in the most liberal city in North Carolina is really something.

Asheville is liberal, yes, but it's relatively small and the surrounding area is friendly enough.

Quick question.

Does Trump have the nuclear codes, does Biden, or do neither of them at the moment?

Knowing Trump, he wouldn't be above nuking other Americans to win a civil war.

I'm gonna tacitly ignore the nuclear question. Let's say the military currently holds the codes, but (obviously) absolutely refuses to use them. The remainder of the military's neutral organization probably deployed units to nuclear silos for safeguarding.

[OBD]

March 2021, Former (The Battle of Scranton)

As pro-Trump forces marched into Wilkes-Barre in the wee hours of March 2nd, the last hopes of a nonviolent solution to the 2020 election crisis were trampled under their feet. Interestingly, the last-ditch peace efforts were pushed by two unique Senators - a Democrat from a Trump state and a Republican from a Clinton state. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Susan Collins of Maine were two committed moderates, and as America began to break at the seams, they worked together to craft a peace plan. Under many of the various proposed Manchin-Collins plans, there would be a re-vote with supervision from all sides and international parties, and in addition, clemency would be granted to all combatants. And while Biden was more than willing to listen to these calls for peace, Trump was far less open to a settlement, demanding that Biden recognize his right to serve for the next four (“and maybe more, as compensation for his party’s socialist lies”) years. Thus, this last-ditch peace offering ultimately fizzled out, and America was committed to the path of civil war.

The international response to the apparent collapse of the American government was a mix of horror and glee. Most nations were quick to recognize the Biden government (including Canada, China, and most of the E.U), but were reluctant to provide the military aid that Biden requested as a member of NATO. Meanwhile, Poland, Israel, Taiwan, Russia, and North Korea were among the nations that instead opted to recognize the Trump government, and like the pro-Biden nations did not directly intervene in the American war. However, historians agree that Russia, and possibly China, were responsible for multiple illicit arms shipments. And many nations, most egregiously Russia, would take advantage of the Eagle’s fall to pursue their foreign policy goals.

However, in March 2021, the eyes of the world were still on Scranton. As it became clear that Scranton was the target of the Red push, many of the city’s pro-Biden residents fled east towards New York, while the pro-Trump residents not eager to be a part of the fight dispersed into the Pennsylvania countryside. Unlike their opponents, the forces defending Scranton did not have the advantage of militia support - radicals on the left were consistently less armed than those on the right, and even those with arms were skeptical of the Biden government. Additionally, as the Blue front stretched from Fayetteville in the south to the New York border, pro-Biden forces were thinly spread across long supply lines. Resultantly, the defenders of Scranton - consisting of Vermont, New York, and Pennsylvania National Guard units plus a smattering of volunteer fighters - were at a profound disadvantage. And, the sole area where pro-Biden forces had the advantage - air power - was negated by their pilots’s refusal to bomb American territory.

On March 4, after securing Wilkes-Barre, a highly motivated Red force began marching up I-81 towards Scranton, picking up support by passing through many supportive small communities. At just past 11 AM local time, they encountered Vermont National Guardsmen dug in just north of Moosic, where they fired the first shots in the Second Civil War’s first major battle. Initially, the former U.S Army troops on both sides were extremely skittish, opting to hunker down and defend (even retreating) instead of firing at their former compatriots - however, the Trumpist militias had no such reservations. As the day went on, and as the Blues were slowly pushed back into Scranton’s city limits, the gloves gradually came off and the intensity of the battle grew. While the Vermonters successfully fended off the push from West Virginian units in Moosic, resulting in an early stalemate, roughly 2,000 Trumpist militiamen broke through a key defensive line on the Lackawanna River, flanking the Vermonters and forcing Blue forces to retreat to Scranton proper. As reinforcements poured in from both sides, ordered there by leaders determined for a propaganda victory, pro-Trump forces prepared a decisive blow for March 5th.

Fighting over the next few days was concentrated in West Scranton, where the Blues maintained a precarious flank position. While the troops there managed to hold off the attackers initially, they were hit from the countryside by swarms of Trumpist militiamen, and found themselves unable to hold their lines. By March 9th, after hours of street-by-street fighting, Red forces had successfully pushed the Blues over the Lackawanna River, and had gained control of the crucial I-81 artery both north and south of the city. And while Biden was determined to hold his ancestral hometown, military advisers were less sanguine - on March 10th, badly wounded Blue forces retreated to Stroudsburg and Port Jervis, leaving Scranton an open city.

The Trumpist victory in Scranton dealt another roundhouse blow to Blue morale - their President’s hometown had fallen, Northeastern Pennsylvania had been lost, and most importantly, the road to New York was open. To make matters worse, Harrisburg and Lancaster had fallen two days earlier, forcing the Blue Pennsylvania Government to flee to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Trump and his allies were jubilant, with militiamen and National Guard units alike taking photo ops at Biden’s childhood home as Trump supporters celebrated on the streets, believing the fall of New York to be imminent.

[OBD]

This is interesting and well-written. Here are a few things I am wondering about, which you may want to consider. It seems like you are mostly focusing on conventional warfare between militias/national guard/etc so far. IDK if that will continue to be the focus. I think it is ok if that is what you want to do, but if you want to be realistic these things could maybe be integrated into the story of what is happening.

a) What if any efforts are being made on each side making to mobilize people? Are national guard units, the army, or militias training more people? Are these efforts varied/decentralized or is there any attempt by the government(s) to organize this?

b) What is happening/will happen with the economy? Presumably there is a lot of disruption. The modern economy is highly dependent on trade, both internationally and transporting things within the country (i.e. parts needed in factories possibly in "enemy territory"). Perhaps most importantly, how is the food supply system? Utilities etc?

c) Are cyber attacks and electronic warfare playing a big role? Is the internet/cell phone communication entirely working? One would think this would be a major part of the conflict. Relatedly, who controls the NSA and the intelligence apparatus?

d) What is the role of drones? I guess at least for now they are probably not being used since the air force is not bombing US territory, but eventually...

Thanks for the feedback! I'll try to incorporate this into the story.
a) Thus far, attempts to mobilize more troops are mostly decentralized - militias on both sides (but more so on the right) are actively recruiting, but the governments haven't gotten involved much yet. With New York under threat though, this will change.
b) There's definitely significant disruption to the economy - I'm not an expert of this, but I'm gonna try to estimate the effects - the Republican government, controlling more land, is probably more self-sufficient, but the Blues are likely more able to trade internationally due to better relations. So, this balances out (with the Blues relying on international trade and the Reds relying on internal production), but there's certainly gonna be issues with food supply especially in areas under siege like Atlanta and Chicago. Energy systems, meanwhile, are generally intact, except in areas where the local energy infrastructure crosses the frontline (e.g. Scranton and Northeastern Pennsylvania are probably powerless atm).
c) As the military leadership is loyal to the Biden government, they have control of the NSA and intelligence, but neither has played a big role in the war thus far. There also haven't really been any cyberwarfare efforts, though as the gloves slowly come off this might change.
d) Drones, like air power, is mostly in the hands of the Biden government due to the alignment of the military - however, also like air power, they aren't being used to attack American soil yet. However, unmanned supply drops could soon be utilized by the Blues to resupply cities under siege.

Honestly given how Republican states control much of the land, even if it may be sparsely populated, here is my prediction for the rest of the war:

1) Any sources of democratic resistance outside the Midwest, the Atlantic or the West fall extremely quickly after a siege by Trumpist forces. This is plain inevitable

2) The Midwestern Front also falls not too long after that, with Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Detroit and Chicago (the crown jewel) captured by Trumpist forces after again sieges. This can be averted if either Canada offers support a ton of support to the Democratic coalition or if Democrats counterattack and are able to reclaim all of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan (which is admittedly a tall order)

3) Rural Nevada is captured by democratic forces, but it is of little strategic importance due to its low population and lack of resources.

Overall, both sides can win (for now), but I'd rather be the Republicans here than the Democrats (barring international intervention). Although if Republicans lose it is game over for them, while if Democrats lose they are almost certain to form a rival government in Hawaii a la Taiwan.

Tbh I'm of the opinion that the Blue islands in the Midwest will actually have a fair amount of longevity - their Air Force advantage and friendly Canada allowing supply drops access to their airspace are huge boons. Atlanta, though, is obviously trickier to hold.

[OBD]

How about nuclear weapons? Who has control over those? And will they be used?

Mentioned above but nuclear weapons will not play a part - assume they're under the control of the remnants of the U.S military.

[OBD]

March 2021, Latter

On the West Coast, however, the situation was nowhere near as dire for the Blues. While insurgencies had taken control of much of eastern Oregon and Washington, the Western Blues had one insurmountable advantage - the state of California. A self-sufficient economic powerhouse, the Golden State’s Democratic leadership had already used their power to effectively force Arizona into their coalition - and as winter turned to spring, Californian troops were deployed to help shore up their allies in Cascadia. They’d already seen action before March - suppressing attempted revolts in Redding, Grants Pass, and Roseburg - and by the fall of Scranton, all of western Oregon and Washington had been stabilized. Thus, when New York pressured the Western Blues for a propaganda victory, they were ready to deliver.
The trans-Cascades offensive began on March 15th - aided by troops from Oregon and Washington, the Californians quickly took many towns just east of the Cascades - impromptu local defenses in Klamath Falls, Wenatchee, and Okanagon were rapidly overwhelmed. Meanwhile in rural Nevada, similar scenes played out - Trumpist militiamen sieging the State Capitol found the tables turned on them as a concerted offensive forced them to flee eastward. On March 19, the Californians linked up with local forces from the Spokane Pocket in Coulee City, dashing Trumpist hopes of taking Eastern Washington’s largest city for themselves. And just two days later, they landed the final blow - taking the Tri-Cities after a concentrated attack from both west and east, forcing the “State of Lincoln” government to flee to Idaho. Washington had been secured - however, the surviving Trumpist forces had managed to disperse into friendly Eastern Oregon and Nevada, forcing the Blues to dedicate resources and time to a costly cleanup operation.

Meanwhile in the East, Trump hoped to leverage his momentum from Scranton to launch a devastating - and probably fatal - attack on the Blues’s power base - New York. Taking almost no time to rest, Red forces immediately hit the Interstates leading east - on March 16, they successfully captured Stroudsburg, pushing the Blues over the Delaware River into New Jersey, and hours later, members of the Sons of Liberty militia made the Reds’s first successful incursion into New York, nearly taking the town of Port Jervis before getting pushed back into Pennsylvania.

On March 19, Blue forces managed to repel a Red attempt to cross the Delaware at Columbia, New Jersey - however, with a growing enemy presence just seventy miles from New York City, panic began to set in in the Big Apple. Many New Yorkers were increasingly doubtful that the Biden government could protect them, and in the closing days of March many fled north to New England or Canada. The general anxiety also permeated the Blue government - while their makeshift army had thus far managed to check Trump’s attempts to make a breakthrough in New Jersey, it was unclear if they could sustain another blow to their defenses. This unenviable situation forced a split in Democratic leadership. President Biden, Attorney General Jones, and a few scatted allies supported the continuation of a conventional response, while Vice President Harris, Secretary of State Rice, and the New York congressional delegation backing the utilization of “overwhelming force” - or using their vast advantage in air power to bomb the Trumpists into retreat.

While Biden’s opposition to the utilization of drone warfare against fellow Americans puzzles many today, those familiar with Biden’s political history realize his actions at the time were understandable. Biden had run for President to unite the nation, and despite the onset of the Second Civil War, was still reluctant to kill who he saw as fellow Americans - in an interview with NBC in Februrary, Biden stated he still had hope for a peaceful solution, and urged the Reds to lay down their arms and come together as a nation (an obviously futile appeal). In that respect, the time for Biden’s brand of politics had passed, and the Cabinet’s overruling of his prohibition of drone warfare was likely the first political blow that led to his eventual resignation.

On March 24, a trap proposed by Blue military leadership was set - in the early morning, Blue forces guarding the Delaware River seemingly abandoned their posts and retreated along I-80. Due to a lack of intelligence (due to most national security assets being under Blue control), the Red militias took the bait, and stormed across the river in force. It was then that a decisive blow was struck. Operating from makeshift bases in the rural New Jersey country, drones came seemingly out of nowhere, stunning and terrorizing the militiamen unfortunate enough to be leading the attack. After nearly half an hour of sustained bombardment, Blue National Guard units made quick work of the shell-shocked Reds remaining, capturing many while forcing the rest to scamper back to Pennsylvania. The so-called Battle of Hope (after the township where the battle took place) was a strategic coup for the New York government, and drone usage would continue to reap gains for them - in the West, drones were used to smoke out Three Percenters hiding in the Nevada deserts, allowing the Californians to expedite their plans to secure the region. However, the droning was also a fundamental loss-of-innocence moment - signalling that both sides would do whatever it took to emerge victorious. And, Biden’s message of hope and unity was slowly giving way to Vice President Kamala Harris’s Shermanite ideals - that war was cruelty, and that the crueler it was, the sooner it would be over.

[OBD]

Foreign Interlude

The sudden collapse of America into civil war blindsided, basically, every other country in the world. For years, nations had made political calculations based on the presence of the powerful Eagle, and with that influence removed, the global stage had been fundamentally altered, and not for the better.

The immediate implications of the Civil War was that nations held in check by American power, most notably Russia and China, were now free to do (largely) as they pleased. For Russia, this would rapidly manifest into far more aggressive foreign policy. Ever since an allegedly rigged election in October, the nation of Belarus had suffered from much unrest, with Russian ally President Lukashenko under assault from pro-democracy activists. Until this point, Putin's actions had been limited to words, but with America out of the picture, he was free to pursue a more bellicose response. In early March, operating with the permission of Lukashenko, Russian forces marched into Belarus to "keep the peace", but effectively served as reinforcements for the Belorussian police in their mission to stamp out all anti-Lukashenko sentiment. Concurrently, Putin began pressuring Lukashenko to officially cement the status of the Union State by surrendering sovereignty to Russia, and while initially reluctant, Lukashenko would ultimately acquiesce to Putin's demands. May 1, over the objections of European parties, was set as the date for unification.

East Asia, meanwhile, was occupied by a ticking time bomb - North Korea. With America now effectively out of the picture, Kim Jong Un and his goons believed South Korea to be ripe for the picking. China was largely occupied with attempting to restrain their ally in an attempt to avoid another economic blow. However, the situation in South Korea was far more dire. Without American support (besides the 28,000 US troops who decided to stay in and defend South Korea), it was unclear if they could survive a sustained North Korean assault, and it was unclear if Japan could assist (and due to the fraught relations between Japan and her neighbors, if such assistance would even be a net benefit). Fear of nuclear fallout further complicated matters - many panicked South Koreans fled into the countryside as their government futilely attempted to calm unrest.

[OBD]

Two other things I am wondering about:

1) Covid is still raging? Presumably the conflict is not going to help with the response to that situation...

2) What is the situation on the US-Mexico border? I would wonder if the Mexican drug cartels would get involved, if nothing else with smuggling arms and the like. Although Texas as a whole is with the Trumpists, perhaps there might be some resistance along the border in particular (due to the geography), perhaps in places like El Paso/South Texas/Laredo.

Yeah, COVID is still an issue, though it's basically not even a news story at this point. I'll address it in the next update.

El Paso and South Texas are basically going along with the Trumpists for now - as in the other Texas cities, there is unrest, but it's not enough to tip over into revolt. As for Mexico, they're largely uninvolved - the government is populist and thus leans towards Trump, but the populace leans heavily towards Biden. And as neither side really wants to work with the cartels yet, they are thus far uninvolved.

[OBD]

April 2021

Following the Battle of Hope, Blue forces won another crucial victory - this time in the Pennsylvanian town of Reading. Aided by air power based in Philadelphia, the Pennsylvania National Guard pushed back a Red attempt to take Reading, ending Republican hopes of capturing Philadelphia for the time being. President Trump, predictably, was furious - however, the Mar-a-Lago government, despite having an edge in ground forces, had a severe disadvantage in air power and was thus unable to retaliate against the Blue bases in the Northeast and West. However, the besieged city of Atlanta, which the Blue air force would be harder-pressed to defend, was a perfect target.

On April 5, using artillery units from Alabama, the bombardment of Atlanta began. The wealthy suburban communities on the frontline were the first to get hit - in a matter of days, Marietta, Roswell, Douglasville, and Conyers were effectively leveled. Blue attempts to send aerial reinforcement, meanwhile, ran into a wall in South Carolina, as Air Force units loyal to Trump forced the planes meant to guard Atlanta into costly dogfights over the Palmetto State. However, while the Blue situation in Atlanta would seem tenuous on paper, they were in a better position than one might think - nearly all of the pro-Biden military force from the Trumpist southern states (plus their supplies) had congregated in Atlanta, and were bolstered by growing radical groups determined to protect Atlanta from what they saw as fascists. The Atlanta Freedom Brigades, as they were officially known, had strong leftist, even communist leanings, but Mayor-declared-Interim Governor Keisha Lance Bottoms needed as much manpower as possible to defend Atlanta and quickly allied with them. These units, supplied with surplus from the Southern national guard units, proved their mettle early on - escorting civilians to safe zones while fighting fiercely against the oncoming Red forces. By late April, the Atlantans had stabilized a defensive line along I-285 - and with semi-regular air drops from the North (at least, the ones that made it through the South Carolina gauntlet), they were reasonably well-supplied. The Siege of Atlanta would go on.

Meanwhile in the Northeast, Blue momentum from the battles of Hope and Reading would eventually stall out. While the New York National Guard successfully linked up with dissendents in Northeast Ohio at the Battle of Ashtabula, at the Battle of Ephrata, Trumpist militiamen utilized their numerical advantage to turn back a Blue attempt to retake the land east of the Susquehanna River. And, a push to retake Scranton was similarly thwarted as Red forces improved their tactics against the Blues’s still-clumsy drone warfare. While Blue efforts in the West would have more success - the remainder of the Nevada militias were routed at Elko, and the State of Lincoln under Loren Culp had been forced back to Ontario, Oregon, signs of trouble still abounded - it was unclear if troops from Oregon and Washington could take Idaho without Californian assistance, and Texan troops had quietly occupied much of rural New Mexico. As winter turned to spring, an initial flurry of activity seemed poised to turn to stalemate.

It was around this time, accordingly, that military moves gave way to more political ones. Both the New York and Mar-a-Lago governments began recruiting drives in their loyal territories. These generally had moderate success - enough young Americans were passionate enough their cause to take up arms - however, as the year went on, both governments began to consider implementing a draft. Both Biden and Trump also pivoted to foreign policy, however, the battle on this front was largely one-sided. Thanks to the efforts of Biden and Secretary of State Rice, and due to Trump’s general international unpopularity, most countries had chose the New York government to do business with - selling food and limited amounts of weapons. Perhaps most importantly, Canada aligned itself with the Blues, allowing Blue airplanes and humanitarian supply free passage - a huge boon for resupply operations in the Midwest.

COVID Update

In April 2021, the COVID pandemic was still raging across the United States and the world. After dropping a dud in January, Pfizer is reportedly close to a vaccine, but the ongoing war has hampered research and will almost certainly hamper production and distribution. Interestingly, COVID is one of the few areas (besides a mutual agreement to not use nuclear weapons) where the Mar-a-Lago and New York government have cooperated - there are agreements in place to help ensure the peaceful delivery of a vaccine.

Meanwhile, the two governments have taken drastically different approaches to COVID - in February, Mar-a-Lago effectively lifted all COVID restrictions, while the New York government is still taking a cautious approach to the virus. After an ebb in new cases after Christmas, though, the frenzied refugee crisis caused another nationwide spike in cases, and the coronavirus crisis appears to have no end in sight - at least until the vaccine is made.

Strategic Situation in United States, May 1, 2021

[OBD]

I have a major personal event in the coming days with significant bearing on my future, so this probably won't be updated till after Wednesday.

[OBD]

I have a major personal event in the coming days with significant bearing on my future, so this probably won't be updated till after Wednesday.

I hope that whatever it is went well, and hopefully if you get a chance when more important things are dealt with you can do some more updates.

I've had some writer's block, but I guess I can try.

Given how hotheaded Trump is, I could see him declaring war on Canada after they provided support for New York.

I'm guessing the Navy largely supports the New York government?

Yeah the Navy is mostly behind the Biden government. That said, I doubt Trump declares on Canada without reason as he isn't really in a position to successfully attack them.

[OBD]

Strongly considering reviving this (after Biden's inauguration, though). Thoughts?

[OBD]

Strongly considering reviving this (after Biden's inauguration, though). Thoughts?

YES PLEASE. This was fantastic

Yes

Glad to see the continued interest!

I'm not sure if I can commit to finishing this, but I do have some drafts for future updates in the works. The first one should go up after inauguration (to not mainfest anything bad).

[OBD]

Summer 2021

As spring gave way to summer, the frontlines quieted as both sides were generally more occupied with counterinsurgency measures and distributing the COVID vaccine - Blue holdouts St. Louis and Louisville both fell to Red forces after being allowed to fester for two months, while the Blues struggled to respond to multiple terror attacks by far-right groups in the cities of Seattle, Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. Consequently, the main frontlines moved little during the months of May, June, and July, though the brutal Siege of Atlanta continued and scattered offenses occurred along the Northeastern Front, where both sides were rapidly entrenching.

However, in August, military activity began to pick up once again, as both sides hoped to exact victories before winter set in. In the Southeast, fighting picked up along the Fayetteville-Wilmington axis. Due to the military largely declaring loyalty to the New York government, these two cities had become key defense points for the Blues in the contested state of North Carolina - as much of the region west of I-95 and south of I-40 fell into chaos, troops from Fort Bragg and naval units operating out of Wilmington pacified southeastern North Carolina and established a defensive line shielding the Blue southern flank. In an attempt to take these strategic goldmines (where supply operations for Atlanta were being run out of), a mix of Trump state guardsmen and irregular militias launched an offensive into the Tar Heel State. On August 16, they clashed with a mix of Blue units in Hope Mills, Roseboro, and Burgaw - towns positioned on key supply lines linking Fayetteville and Wilmington to the remainder of the state - with mixed results. While Burgaw and Hope Mills were defended, Roseboro fell, allowing Trumpist forces to successfully penetrate the Blue defensive line in eastern North Carolina. Ignoring heavily-defended Fayetteville, Red forces surged forward. On August 19, Interstate 40 - a key supply line for Wilmington - was breached near Faison, as Blue forces in the area scrambled to prevent a rout. And their efforts were ultimately successful. While Goldsboro fell on the 21st and Jacksonville three days later, by the month’s end a successful defensive line had been established along US 70 and I-95, containing the Red advance. However, Wilmington was now isolated (though still easily suppliable by sea, with the Navy largely loyal to New York), and Fayetteville became an awkward salient surrounded on three sides by enemy territory.

While the Eastern fronts remained largely in stalemate, more activity occurred in the West. After months of preparation, the western Blue forces were ready for a concerted offensive. While the military might of Texas made an attack via New Mexico difficult (this front would remain stagnant for the time being, with both sides digging in a la Northeastern Front), Red forces defending the northwest front in Idaho were relatively weak. On August 28, the Blues struck - amid sweltering weather in the High Desert, a hybrid force of Oregonians and Californians routed the Idaho National Guard and the remnants of the [State of] Jefferson Army at Nampa, before advancing rapidly to the capital of Boise. In the north, the Washington National Guard quickly and surgically pacified Moscow and Coeur D’Alene, only meeting resistance from ‘skinhead’ militias as the Montana contingent retreated to defend their home state. The Idaho state government was forced to flee to Pocatello, and the Western Blues had once again emerged victorious - though the rugged Rocky Mountains and wide empty spaces stood between them and further advances. Additionally, several rogue groups would continue to plague the occupying forces - far-right, often white supremacist militias would serve as a thorn in the side of the Western Blues for the duration of the war.

Political activity on both sides was also rife. As it became clear that the Second American Civil War would be a drawn-out affair, politicians in both New York and Mar-a-Lago pushed to reorganize both their ‘federal’ governments and state governments under their control. Both sides had been left with legislative bodies that had overwhelming majorities for one party, and both sides had significantly-sized ‘in-exile’ delegations from states controlled by the other government. And, while still a year away, running free and fair elections would be difficult during an all-out war.

The New York Government took a more ‘democratic’ approach to the issue. In a series of emergency bills passed by the Democratic supermajority in Congress, New York established representation for all regions under its jurisdiction, with elections to be held as normally as possible in areas under its control. Additionally, representatives-in-exile would be allowed to keep their seats until Blue-run elections could be held in their districts. With many Republican legislators abdictating for Mar-a-Lago, the first round of special elections was scheduled for November - including state legislative elections in the newly-established District of Erie (Blue-controlled Ohio) and District of Boise (Blue-controlled Idaho). And, backed by strong wartime unity and conservative boycotts, the Democratic Party had the inside track for nearly every seat - though a newly-formed People’s Party (which surprisingly received support from multiple sitting Justice Democrats) aimed to exact legislative gains on a platform of left-wing dissent.

Meanwhile in Mar-a-Lago, the Republican Party that Trump had united for his previous four-year tenure had begun to fracture. On one side stood the moderates - made up of older, more traditional conservatives (and the remnants of Trump state Democratic Parties), this faction was inclined against the war but had been dragged along by their Trumpist constituents. Led by the still-powerful Mitch McConnell, the moderates were advocates for maintaining democratic institutions and a modicum of opposition in areas under Trump control. On the other end of the ideological spectrum stood the hardliners - led by the President himself. This group of politicians were completely loyal to the President, and made their primary goal suppressing dissent in Mar-a-Lago-controlled America. Separated from the liberal opposition, Trump’s authoritarian instincts were now on full display - as demonstrated by his orders to brutally suppress protests in Houston, Miami, and other left-leaning enclaves. Growing divides between Trump loyalists led the President to found a new party - the “American Party” - as both a wartime unity banner and as a personal brand to increase his political power. For the remainder of 2021, though, this divide would remain largely symbolic - Trump still worked closely with the members of his administration, including Pence and McConnell, who remained Republicans.

On the international front, the New York government continued to have a monopoly over diplomatic recognition, though no country was willing to commit military supplies or forces to aid in their battle against the Trumpists. However, one nation came close to the brink. Canada, under the government of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leaned naturally towards the Blues - Canada was ideologically similar, and traded frequently with areas loyal to Biden. Resultantly, Trudeau and Canada frequently granted Blue forces favors, from open borders, trade, and airspace to freezing Trump-controlled assets in Canada. These perceived slights meant that relations between Mar-a-Lago and Ottawa were extremely cold - both sides placed significant military assets on their long shared border. On September 4, the tense border standoff erupted into conflict in North Dakota. Due to North Dakota National Guard units getting called up to stem the Blue onslaught in Idaho, a far-right North Dakotan militia group was stationed at the Pembina border crossing (where Interstate 29, a major artery, crossed into Canada). Early on the 4th, these units got into a verbal altercation with their Canadian counterparts over a refugee couple from Grand Forks attempting to cross the border, and just before noon, a shot was fired. In an impromptu skirmish that lasted until sundown, the Trumpist militiamen attempted to cross into Canada to “teach the Canucks a lesson”, but were beaten back by the superior Canadian force. The Battle of Pembina triggered a diplomatic firestorm, as an enraged Trudeau demanded an apology from Mar-a-Lago - which, after 48 hours of delaying and posturing by Trump, was delivered reluctantly under pressure from moderate advisers. The Reds had narrowly avoided drawing Canada into the war, but the antics of untrained, erratic militia groups would continue to be an irritant in Mar-a-Lago for the duration of the war.

[OBD]

Fall 2021

Late September was dominated by campaigns historians collectively refer to as the Battle of the 90s. While part of this name was based on the heat wave that ravaged the Midwest during an unexpectedly intense Indian summer, this nickname primarily referred to the major arteries - Interstates 90, 94, and 96 - that fighting centered along. After being largely dormant through the summer (with both sides focusing on fortifying other lines and/or consolidating territory under their control), the Midwestern fronts re-erupted as both New York and Mar-a-Lago attempted to disrupt the other’s supply lines.

Blue forces based in the cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul, Madison, Milwaukee, Chicago, and Detroit had successfully carved out robust enclaves surrounded by Red areas, but the road connections - and rural regions - that linked them were precariously held. While airlifts through Canadian territory meant that controlling the Interstates wasn’t essential, Blue leaders feared that losing them would be both a blow to morale and ground resupply operations. They also hoped to launch an offensive across central Michigan to link up with Chicago - code-named Operation Breadbasket.

Amid sweltering weather, New York made its move. On September 26, a mix of Michigan and Northeastern National Guard units left their garrisons in Ann Arbor and Lansing, attacking west along Interstates 94 and 96. Their initial advance was highly successful - Jackson, a key base of operation for Michigan’s Republican government, was overrun on the 29th, and by October 1 Interstate 96 from Grand Rapids to the Canadian border was under Blue control (breaking the siege of the western Michigan city). However, this move also opened up a broad east-west flank for Trumpist forces to harry - after the initial surprise wore off, effective and repeated pinprick attacks, as well as the successful Red defense of Muskegon, forced Biden to call off the offensive.

A similar battle with reversed roles was playing out along Interstate 94 - a key link between Blue-held Minnesota and Chicago. After early skirmishes, Blue forces had successfully secured a corridor of Driftless land between I-94 and the Mississippi, allowing them to supply the Twin Cities by ground while also cutting off the Trumpist Wisconsin government from their southern allies. Resultantly, retaking the Driftless was a priority for the Reds’s Midwestern division. As Michigan state troopers linked up with National Guard members from Massachusetts east of Grand Rapids, the Trumpist governments of Iowa and Wisconsin launched a pincer attack on the Driftless region, hoping to cut off Minneapolis from the rest of Blue territory while ending the isolation of Wisconsin and Michigan’s Republican governments the Driftless salient imposed. And this attack was largely successful - while Blue forces guarding the highway were well-trained and competent, they simply couldn’t defend such a long front. On October 4, Iowa National Guard units attacking from across the Mississippi linked up with north Wisconsin militiamen in Tomah, and a day later Blue military command ordered a general retreat. The region between St. Paul and Madison was now under Trumpist control - a major victory for Mar-a-Lago and a counter to their half-defeat in Michigan.

Meanwhile in the American West, the war continued to heat up. For months, Californian and Texan forces in New Mexico had remained in an uneasy stalemate - much of eastern New Mexico’s rural areas were under Texan occupation, but the state’s population centers and seat of government remained in Blue hands. Most battles, if any, occurred in the air - while the Air Force was largely loyal to New York, Texas was home to a significant Trumpist air contingent, preventing the Western Blues from dominating the skies. Most of the Texan air units were based in the liberal border town of El Paso (where riots in July were brutally suppressed by Trumpist authorities) - so, Californian military command began drawing up a plan to take the city and deal a blow to both the Texan military and Texan morale. Over the objection of President Biden and his allies, they made drone warfare an integral part of their planned offensive into the Lone Star state, calling upon combat drones to be used liberally against the Texan defense force. And this approach proved successful - drones exacted significant casualties in the Battle of Anthony, where Blue forces won in a rout, and allowed them to push deep into El Paso before Mar-a-Lago could send reinforcements. However, the brutality of this strategy shocked even observers loyal to New York - in addition to military casualties, much of El Paso was slowly burnt to the ground as Blue forces advanced block-by-block against fierce Texan resistance. In a particularly jarring incident, mistaken orders from Californian military command led to the death by drone of 45 university students sheltering near UT El Paso.

The failures in the Midwest and the carnage in Texas weighed heavily on President Biden. Biden was already 78 years old, and the stress of managing a domestic war effort combined with advisers frequently overruling him to use more aggressive tactics rapidly compounded. As summer turned to fall, reports emerged from New York City that the president was disillusioned and in poor health, upset at the increasing brutality of the war while barely powerful enough to overrule bellicose elements in his own War Cabinet. And following the UT El Paso incident, the President had had enough. On October 26, Biden officially submitted his resignation, becoming the shortest-serving president since William Henry Harrison. Historians remember Biden today as an idealistic, well-meaning president thrown into an incredibly unfavorable situation, and a combination of age and ideology meant he was ultimately unsuited for the demands of a multiyear civil war. With Biden’s home state deemed too close to enemy lines, the now-former President was convinced to retire to a classified location in Vermont, under constant Secret Service protection, as Vice President Harris took the oath of office.

While Biden stepping down was stunning to much of the public, most New York government insiders saw it coming for months - and Blue leaders had contingency plans lined up. Harris was sworn in as the 47th President promptly, and quickly tapped Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey Jr. as her Vice President. Casey Jr., a veteran politician from a frontline state, was seen as an experienced, moderate hand whose selection would both please Biden (who was born in Pennsylvania) and keep a senior official in the White House. With Casey resigning his seat to accept the post, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf appointed his Lieutenant Governor, Democrat John Fetterman, to the seat. Now-President Harris also reshuffled White House staff, with some Biden loyalists who shared the 46th President’s view on a more ‘limited’ war getting replaced by more bellicose alternatives - a move that angered some in the remnants of Bidenworld.

With Harris at the helm, the full might of Blue drone warfare was unleashed. While one of Biden’s last acts in office was to institute a moratorium on the usage of drones, Harris reversed this decision within hours, granting the Californian army permission to resume droning El Paso with increased fervor. This new strategy immediately paid dividends - on November 4, the California National Guard routed the Texans at the Battle of Franklin Mountain, seizing the key military installation of Fort Bliss three days later. With the El Paso Airport falling on the 9th, the last Texan supply line to their crucial western outpost was severed. Soon after, the Texans began a general retreat from the city, falling back to Odessa-Midland across the vast Texan desert - an obstacle that now hindered the Blues, who were unable to give pursuit without taxing their supply lines. Meanwhile in New Mexico, a joint force of Nevadan and New Mexican units defeated an auxiliary Texan force at Alamogordo after a pitched two-week battle, forcing the Red garrison there to retreat to Roswell. The victories in the West, most notably the fall of El Paso, gave Harris crucial victories in the infancy of her presidency, setting a tone that her supporters hoped could carry throughout her tenure.

On the international front, the drama of the Russian annexation of Belarus had largely dissipated into a tense stability. Without American support, the remnants of NATO scrambled to prepare for mobilization if the Russian Bear turned its eyes further west, but Putin’s apparent halt bought them more time while also allowing for diplomatic efforts to negotiate a more stable peace with Russia. The nation of Ukraine remained a flashpoint - Putin indicated that Russia would soon officially move into the contested Donbass region, while the angered Ukrainians attempted to receive NATO aid against this threat. It appeared that, soon, an international conflict would distract from the spectacle of the Second American Civil War.

November 2021 Elections

Virginia Gubernatorial
Mark Herring (D) 57.81%
Barbara Comstock (I) 38.94%
Princess Blanding (P) 3.25%

New Jersey Gubernatorial
Phil Murphy (D) 58.39%
Tom Kean Jr. (I) 34.73%
Generic P (P) 6.88%

Erie Gubernatorial (Special)
Tim Ryan (NP/D) 67.96%
Anthony Gonzalez (NP/I) 19.35%
Nina Turner (NP/P) 11.62%
Other 1.07%

Idaho Gubernatorial (Special)
Paulette Jordan (NP/D) 69.00%
Other 31.00%

[OBD]

Winter 2021

As the winter set in, bringing with it a historically severe cold snap, activity on the northern fronts largely ceased. In a situation reminiscent of World War I, troops on the Pennsylvanian and Midwestern fronts were dug into trenches, with concerted attacks few and far between. Especially in regions closer to the frontlines, food supply had become a major issue - America’s production of essential items had been greatly hampered by the war, and the bitter winter of 2021 exacerbated these problems. Additionally, COVID-19 continued to run amok among unvaccinated soldiers and civilians alike, though this overwhelmingly affected the Reds (who had to deal with a significant population that refused vaccinations).

While troops in the northeast had to contend with abysmal weather, disease, and food shortage, conditions were worst in the Southern city of Atlanta. Unlike its fellow besieged metropolises that were a stone’s throw from friendly Canada - Minneapolis-St. Paul and Chicago - Atlanta could not be reliably supplied without fighting through the hostile South Carolina airspace. As a result, supplies slowly began running low, and near-constant artillery shelling that destroyed food, water, and shelter alike compounded the problems. Rationing had been implemented in October, but by December the homeless population - which had swelled due to the siege - began to starve. Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and the Red Cross pleaded for Mar-a-Lago to end the air embargo and allow essential food and medical supplies to be airlifted in, and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp also reportedly advocated for this option. However, Trump remained intransigent, ruthlessly ordering the barricade to remain in place. Atlanta would continue to starve into the New Year, and politically, fissures began to open between the Trump hardliners and the Georgia state government.

The southwestern front, where the desert sun kept temperatures in the mid-60s, was far more active during the winter period. Hoping to press their advantage, the Western Blues aimed to combine their forces and make a push into Texas - however, the geography that had forced the Reds into retreat following the loss of El Paso was now a factor against them. San Antonio was still over 500 miles away, and while Amarillo and Lubbock were slightly closer they were also highly unfavorable territory (staunchly Republican, with significant gun ownership). With these constraints in mind, the Californians (with aid directly from New York City) made their plans to puncture deep into Texas. Their plan was a mix of a push east along I-10 and an attempt to take rural population centers - sending increasingly large forces to take forward bases on the road to San Antonio, while also launching a broad-front attack through New Mexico into the Texan Panhandle. On December 10, this plan was launched, with an armored Californian convoy setting out from El Paso to establish a base in Van Horn while the other state National Guards (supported by drones operating out of Las Vegas) secured Eastern New Mexico. The results were mixed - while drone support had largely exorcized the Reds from New Mexico by Christmas, it took the Californians three attempts to take Van Horn (a combination of fierce Texan defense and a severe geographical disadvantage), and it appeared that further incursion into Texas would cost even more life and resources while yielding minimal gain. With the Oregon and Washington National Guards stalemated in the mountains of Montana, significant success in the West had seemingly morphed to another stalemate.

The North Carolina front also saw more activity, as Blue forces attempted to secure the area around Fayetteville while the Trumpists aimed to push their gains into Raleigh. In early September, Mar-a-Lago tried another offensive - the Blue enclave of Charlotte had surrendered just days earlier, freeing up more troops - but Fayetteville was once again defended successfully. Through October and November, back-and-forth fighting east of I-95 between Wilson, Greenville and Jacksonville continued, with neither side able to permanently gain the upper hand.

It was during the winter month that the refugee situation reached a nadir. Since the onset of the conflict, many Americans sought to cross the battle lines - whether seeking friendly political territory, attempting to reunite with family, or in some cases, escaping the harsh realities of living on the warfront. Historians estimate that the total interstate movement in the first months of the Second Civil War was the highest in American history. With flights largely canceled, millions of Americans took to the highways, mostly Interstates. And it was along these freeways that some of the worst events of the war occured. In Red territory, wandering bands of American Party vigilantes harassed (and occasionally even imprisoned or killed) anyone who appeared to be fleeing to Blue or Gray controlled regions. On December 2, a group of Wyoming militiamen detonated a bomb near an Interstate 80 pass, killing many refugee families fleeing to neutral Utah while closing off the most direct route from Red-controlled America to a neutral zone. Blue areas weren’t spared from the turmoil either. Fed up with far-right groups agitating in major cities, Governor Newsom and other western-state leaders ordered a massive crackdown on so-called ‘domestic insurgents’, resulting in hundreds of arrests and several violent encounters that caused multiple law enforcement deaths. Those who escaped the ‘December Purge’ wreaked havoc on Blue transit lines, often running into and terrorizing refugees headed in the other direction. And, both sides were ill-prepared to support their existing populations with the destruction of many transcontinental trade routes, let alone millions of hungry, homeless refugees. Between highway violence, the bitter cold, and brutally spartan refugee camps, thousands of Americans would die during what many consider to be the darkest winter in the nation’s history thus far.

Winter 2022

On January 1, the sun rose on a new year in America - but from the cold trench lines in Pennsylvania to the tortured remains of Atlanta to the lawless desert of West Texas, few were celebrating. While the conflict ebbed and flowed, hundreds died every day - whether to a bullet or to nature. Across the Atlantic and Pacific, tension continued to build. Russian forces amassed at the edge of the Donbass region while the remnants of NATO oscillated from posturing threateningly to outright panicking. South Korea remained in a state of high alert as the threat from the North remained high, while China switched from threatening Taiwan to attempting to restrain their allies in the Hermit Kingdom.

In America, though, the war continued. On January 3, Blue forces launched an offensive across the frozen plains of northern Michigan, with the goal of securing the area from the local militias that played a major role in blunting their fall attack. Sweeping north from the I-96 line and Flint, Saginaw and Midland fell quickly, while a combination of taxing search-and-destroy combat and ruthless drone bombings allowed the Blues to gain firm control of much of Central Michigan, as well as the intransigent Thumb region. By the end of the month, the northern Michigan militias had been relegated to the remote northern third of the state, and effectively became a strategic nonfactor.

With the success in the North, Blue commanders once again made plans to probe south, hoping to at long last establish a continuous supply line from Chicago to their core Northeastern territories. Like the northern initiative, this strategy led to initial gains - on January 27, the relatively underdefended city of Toledo fell to an offensive from Detroit, and after three days of pitched fighting the Blues also emerged victorious in the Second Battle of Kalamazoo - leaving their advance forces just 90 minutes from Michigan City, which their Chicago counterparts had recently taken. With these victories on the bag, they set their sights on a trio of cities on the Lake Michigan shore - Muskegon, Holland, and Benton Harbor. The anchors of the remnants of Red forces in Michigan, the Blues had failed to break through during the Battle of the 90s due to the stiff defenses mounted here. While it was possible to establish a link to Chicago by taking Benton Harbor alone, Harris and other top military brass realized that without taking the other two cities, their hold on the region would be tenuous. Thus, rather than rushing forward to Chicago, the Blue armies (consisting primarily of Michigan National Guard and defectors from Trump-controlled Midwestern states) turned west towards Holland, aiming to cut off and starve Muskegon while paving the way for the establishment of a stable link to the Windy City. On February 7, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and New York National Guard units marched westwards from the Grand Rapids defensive lines, intent on stamping out the remainder of Red resistance in western Michigan, aided by elite drone squadrons. Opposing them was a ragtag group of National Guard defectors and Midwest militiamen, many of whom had participated in the past autumn’s Defense of Muskegon. Over the next few days, pitched battle took place along Interstate 196 in freezing weather, with Blue forces taking Hudsonville on the 10th and Zeeland on the 12th. By the 14th, the Michigan Trumpists had their backs against the wall (or in this case, Lake Michigan), and just a two-mile strip of land separated the Blue spearhead from reaching water and slicing the Red defensive line in two.

Thus, the Midwestern Red command was forced to gamble. Drawing troops back from the siege of Chicago, they ordered a last-ditch attack in central Michigan. National Guard units from Indiana, Kentucky, and Arkansas were thrown into the assault, which targeted the Central Michigan town of Marshall. A key transportation hub, Marshall was fairly well-defended, but many troops there had been pulled out for the Blue push westward. And, when elite Red forces attacked in the dead of night on February 16, the Blues were caught by surprise. Utilizing the friendly countryside to their advantage, the Red advance was quiet and deadly - by sunrise, all of Marshall had fallen into their hands, and the defending Blues had been pushed back to Interstate 94.

However, rather than retreating to deal with this major threat to their supply lines, the Blue forces fighting for Holland doubled down. Just hours after the fall of Marshall, the first Michigan National Guard units entered the Holland city limits, and on February 22, after four days of siege, Holland fell. As the Red diversionary offensive approached Battle Creek, New York government forces stood on the east bank of Lake Michigan for the first time.

Out west, though, neither side was able to gain the upper hand. The Washington National Guard successfully captured Missoula on January 10 while Blue forces to their south secured remaining holdouts by ‘skinheads’ in Idaho, expanding the influence of the New York government to neutral Utah’s northern border. However, bad weather and extremely difficult terrain made further advance nigh on impossible - attempts to break into Kalispell or advance east to Butte were either thwarted or dismissed due to a combination of stiff local defense or snowy conditions. Further south, the warmer Texas weather was equally inconductive to victory on either side. After largely sitting on their hands, local Blue units in Colorado moved to capture Cheyenne, the capital of Mar-a-Lago-supporting Wyoming, on January 19. While resistance was initially heavy, Trump’s commanders concluded that holding Wyoming was strategically nonessential (reasoning that an offense across the Plains states would be a disaster for New York), and diverted forces there to more critical fronts. Cheyenne and Laramie turned from Red strongholds to open cities, and were promptly occupied by Blue troops from Colorado - on February 1, Representative Liz Cheney (one of a handful of Republican politicians who remained loyal to the New York government) was appointed military governor of Blue-held Wyoming. However, the vast majority of the state’s land area remained in de facto Red hands - corralling such a vast, unpopulated area was deemed a waste of resources, allowing Trump loyalists in the state to continue a loosely organized resistance.

The main theater of the war at the time though, unquestionably, was the South. After months of siege, Atlanta was on her last legs. Despite humanitarian complaints ranging from the New York government to Georgia GOP officials to vast international outcry, Trump refused to allow aid to pass through Red lines - and, with frustration high among the loose coalition of state guards and militias besieging the metropolis, the probability of reprisals against both combatants and civilians was high. With frequent inclement weather and taxed supply lines decreasing the frequency of successful airlifts from the North, Mayor Bottoms had few cards to play - and military intelligence on both sides suggested Atlanta would fall by March, if not earlier.

It was in this fraught environment that a seemingly (relatively) minor incident would spiral into  dramatic political reprisals that rocked the Mar-a-Lago government to its core. On January 28, at roughly 11:50 AM, a supply plane departed Raleigh, bound for Atlanta. This routine flight was frequently accompanied by Blue fighters to guide it across the perilous South Carolina airspace. However, on the 28th, this wasn’t the case - a Red offense just south of Hartsfield-Jackson forced the escorts earmarked for the supply flight to deter this attack, leaving it to journey to Atlanta alone. And while Blue command believed the likelihood that the flight would be caught was low (especially as it detoured from the typical flight path for these supply routes), they were not that lucky. At 12:27 PM, just south of Anderson, South Carolina, the plane was spotted by a militia on the ground, and with a Red squadron patrolling the area nearby, it was shot down quickly. While the Blue government offices in Raleigh and Atlanta quickly condemned the attack, it was merely one downed plane out of many that failed to run the Southern supply gauntlet - until the identity of one of the crash’s victims came to light.

As conditions in Atlanta deteriorated, so did relations between the Georgia state government and Mar-a-Lago. Governor Kemp, while a Trump loyalist, was at heart a moderate, and while he and other Georgia state leaders went along with secession, the increasingly evident lack of concern Mar-a-Lago held for lives and property in his state’s most prominent city alarmed him. In late January, with the fall of the city seemingly imminent, Kemp made his move, sending Secretary of State Raffensburger (another relative moderate) secretly to negotiate an armistice with Blue leadership in Atlanta, hoping that they would stand down in exchange for Mar-a-Lago sparing the city from further retribution and starvation. On January 25, after secret talks with Blue military leaders in Wilmington, Raffensburger was snuck across the porous Atlantic lines, before being flown back to Georgia.

While the records of these top-secret negotiations have unfortunately been lost to time (likely destroyed in the aftermath of the Fall of Atlanta), they ultimately proved to be irrelevant. Georgia’s Secretary of State, who was on an unauthorized diplomatic trip to the primary enemy of the Mar-a-Lago government (particularly one that had been a thorn in their side since the onset of the war), was found in the wreckage of a crashed Blue plane at a time of increasingly fraught relations between his Governor and President Trump himself. And the consequences would be severe.

When Trump learned of Raffensburger’s death, he was incensed. In his eyes, Kemp’s attempts to negotiate a peace with Bottoms behind his back was an unforgivable attempt to undermine his authority - in other words, treason. He had already recruited an American Party candidate - David Perdue - to challenge Kemp, but now, the mercurial 45th President was unable to wait any longer to remove Georgia’s governor from office. In the wee hours of January 31, as details of the crash emerged, units of the FBI loyal to Trump broke into Red Georgia’s interim government offices in Savannah, arresting Kemp and several of his subordinates for treason and flying them out to Mar-a-Lago under cover of night to stand trial. On the Atlanta front, confusion reigned as Trumpist commanders sought to verify the loyalty of their underlings. Amid the chaos, the defenders of the city launched a sudden offensive to pillage Trumpist supply caches - while this operation led to little territorial gain, it secured a significant amount of valuable resources for the besieged city.

   Despite waves of paranoia washing across Red Georgia, Kemp and his loyalists were completely caught off guard - the now-former Governor had not expected Trump to act so decisively against him. As a result, the vast majority of his inner circle was neutralized on January 31, and the Georgia National Guard remained by-and-large loyal to the state’s new military governor, David Perdue. However, the implications of these events occurred primarily outside the Peach State. Naturally, the New York Government - as well as the neutral governments in Utah and Alaska - condemned Trump’s actions, but the ‘Georgia Coup’ also unnerved some of Trump’s closest allies. Governors of some of the largest Red states - notably Greg Abbott in Texas and Ron DeSantis in Florida - saw the action against Kemp as possible precursors to their own downfalls should they step out of line, and consequently, began to take precautions and lay plans for possible breaks from their increasingly unstable President.

   The most immediate effects were felt in Georgia’s northern neighbor. Taking advantage of the temporary confusion in the Red lines, Blue forces in North Carolina launched an offensive to relieve the siege of Wilmington. Moving quickly south from Raleigh, the focal point of the offensive was the Georgian garrison in Goldsboro. With commanders there still focused on stabilizing their force following the coup, they were caught off guard when a large Blue force launched a direct assault on their city. On February 5, Goldsboro had fallen after a mere 24 hour siege, and the Blues raced east to New Bern, cutting off the Reds sieging Wilson and Greenville - who were then brutally shredded by crack Blue drone units, freshly updated with the latest Silicon Valley technology. With the assistance of auxiliary offensives from Wilmington and Fayetteville, plus Blue naval power pounding the Red garrison at Jacksonville into submission, the New York government had their Carolina breakthrough. With the cream of the Red North Carolina force devastated at the wrong end of the most intense drone strike seen thus far in the war, the road southwards was open, and by February 11 Blue forces had recaptured almost the entirety of southeastern North Carolina. Despite some in the White House calling for a continued offensive into South Carolina, cooler military heads prevailed, with Blue forces consolidating defensive positions along the border, as well as facing west towards Red-held Charlotte. However, naval forces began shelling Red defensive positions in Myrtle Beach, devastating the resort area - a possible precursor to a broader offensive into the Palmetto State, perhaps to even relieve Atlanta.