Poll: Who will ultimately win Arizona? (Also, updates in AZ numbers)

[ProudModerate2]

... Also, from Governor Doug Ducey today (Nov 9). He released the following statement regarding the counting of ballots:

"In Arizona, we are still counting the votes, with roughly 75,000 to 80,000 left ..."

Not sure exactly what time he released this statement, and if any of his estimate amount has been reduced by additional counting we have already seen today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden. See my analysis in the results thread if you're interested.

GM,
Can you copy and paste it in this thread please.

Here's the latest one:

The website has updated with the Maricopa dump. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 4283
Provisional ballots: 36827
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20467

Total: 61577

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 52070 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 8503 from them.  He currently trails by 14746, so would finish behind by 6243. 

Of the estimated remaining 61.5K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 18.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be around 20K for Biden, unless there actually is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[ProudModerate2]

Biden. See my analysis in the results thread if you're interested.

GM,
Can you copy and paste it in this thread please.

Here's the latest one:

The website has updated with the Maricopa dump. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 4283
Provisional ballots: 36827
Ballots ready for tabulation: 20467

Total: 61577

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 52070 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 8503 from them.  He currently trails by 14746, so would finish behind by 6243. 

Of the estimated remaining 61.5K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 18.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be around 20K for Biden, unless there actually is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

Thank you for posting this.
Please continue to give us breakdown analysis on these numbers, if possible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with some new numbers from Yavapai County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST today: 4153
Provisional ballots: 36155
Ballots ready for tabulation: 19685

Total: 59993

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 50685 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 7374 from them.  He currently trails by 14746, so would finish behind by 7372.

Of the estimated remaining 60K ballots, 29.5K are in Maricopa and 18.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326252357013757952

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326252357013757952

When will the next batch of votes get reported/ updated?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Several counties have reported small amounts today, and Maricopa just did a big one.  Trump won the Maricopa dump 2982 to 2213 -- good for him, but not good enough.

The website has updated with the new numbers from Maricopa County. Maricopa is now down to an estimated 22,456: 1300 needing signature cure (which should be resolved soon), 6026 provisional, and 15130 waiting to tabulate.

Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline was 5pm MST today except in 3 counties, when it's Nov 12): 2977
Provisional ballots: 28502
Ballots ready for tabulation: 15290

Total: 46769

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 39580 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 5067 from them.  He currently trails by 12813, so would finish behind by 7746.

Of the estimated remaining 46.7K ballots, 22.5K are in Maricopa and 15.7K are in Pima.  I'm guessing the final margin will be between 15K and 20K for Biden, unless there really is a very GOP-friendly batch left in Maricopa.

[ProudModerate2]

Wow this state is taking long.
Anyway, Biden still leads by about 11,500 and I think it's still looking good for him to win here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow this state is taking long.
Anyway, Biden still leads by about 11,500 and I think it's still looking good for him to win here.

It's a done deal at this point.  The only interesting question IMO is whether the margin will be larger or smaller than Georgia's (~14,500, pending recount).

[ProudModerate2]

Voting in this poll thread now locked.
Because ...

[Rand]

92 mile car line bump

Cars can't vote.

Reminder that boat and car parades don’t mean sheeeeeeeeet.