Poll: Who will ultimately win Arizona? (Also, updates in AZ numbers)
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  Poll: Who will ultimately win Arizona? (Also, updates in AZ numbers)		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: When all the votes are counted in Arizona, and the vote there is officially certified, who will ultimately win Arizona?
#1
Biden will win (I'm pro-Biden)
#2
Trump will win (I'm pro-Biden)
#3
Biden will win (I'm pro-Trump)
#4
Trump will win (I'm pro-Trump)
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Partisan results

Author Topic: Poll: Who will ultimately win Arizona? (Also, updates in AZ numbers)  (Read 2314 times)
ProudModerate2
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« on: November 06, 2020, 09:25:51 PM »
« edited: November 09, 2020, 07:25:26 PM by ProudModerate2 »
Poll Question:  When all the votes are counted in Arizona, and the vote there is officially certified, who will ultimately win Arizona?


There is no "Not Sure" poll option. Make a call one way or the other.

Vote and discuss.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2020, 09:26:25 PM »
Biden by a weaker than expected margin.
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Badger
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2020, 09:38:20 PM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on November 06, 2020, 09:26:25 PM
Biden by a weaker than expected margin.

Far weaker.
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SN2903
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2020, 10:13:09 PM »
Trump by 1500 votes
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mardigrappa
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2020, 10:38:13 PM »
Not happening.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2020, 10:52:03 PM »
Biden, by about the same margin as Wisconsin.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2020, 11:25:33 AM »
At about 10:45 Eastern Time, CNN was reporting that approx. 126,000 total ballots are yet to be counted in Arizona (with 47,000 of those being provisional ballots).

Biden currently leads by about 20,500 votes.

New counting has been eating-away at Biden lead (very slowly though, not in huge bites).
It's going to be close, but I think one candidate or the other will probably win with a gap of, plus or minus 4,000 votes or so.
I say Biden barely takes it.

PS: I believe we are waiting for another Maricopa County update (drop) in the next hour or so.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2020, 11:26:42 AM »
#3 (Biden by 1 to 1.5 point)
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2020, 01:25:24 PM »
Biden's lead still sitting at about 20,500.
Should we have not seen an update by now?
What am I missing? Is there somewhere out there that has more info on this. If so, please post.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2020, 07:14:12 PM »
There has been a small amount of movement.
Biden has slightly increased (not decreased) his margin ... hmmmm.
He now leads with about 21,200 votes.
Good news.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2020, 07:16:35 PM »
Biden will still ultimately win and we will get that beautiful (yet somewhat odd) 306-232 ironic reversal map!
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2020, 07:19:18 PM »
Biden for sure.  There's not all that much left in Maricopa.  There does appear to be some vote outstanding in counties Biden won though.
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AGA
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2020, 07:29:13 PM »
I'm not sure, but PredictIt (which only has Michigan at 95% Biden, for comparison) is saying Biden at 85%, so I guess I'll go with Biden.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2020, 07:32:45 PM »
The Arizona Republic (biggest paper in the state) has already called it for Biden, and I trust their local knowledge and they wouldn't have called it unless they were 100% certain Trump has no path, it would be extremely embarrassing for them if they got it wrong.
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Sbane
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2020, 07:34:54 PM »
Do you guys think it will tighten further in Arizona or stay about the same?
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2020, 07:38:07 PM »
I expect Trump to win when all votes are counted but who knows.
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Rand
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2020, 07:38:58 PM »
Quote from: Sbane on November 07, 2020, 07:34:54 PM
Do you guys think it will tighten further in Arizona or stay about the same?

You can trust Faux News on this one.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2020, 07:12:38 PM »
Late Sunday afternoon ...

NYT now shows the % of estimated votes reported at 98% (previously stuck on 97%).
The Biden lead is now approx 17,000 votes.
I'm now starting to think that the final tally will not be that close, as I previously thought.
GO JOE! Win Arizona!
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2020, 07:13:24 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on November 08, 2020, 07:12:38 PM
Late Sunday afternoon ...

NYT now shows the % of estimated votes reported at 98% (previously stuck on 97%).
The Biden lead is now approx 17,000 votes.
I'm now starting to think that the final tally will not be that close, as I previously thought.
GO JOE! Win Arizona!

MariJOEpa!
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bagelman
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« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2020, 07:49:32 PM »
Many were rightfully worried however not all the last precincts are the Trump ones.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2020, 09:29:46 PM »
Most my state predictions were wrong but hey I'm sticking with Biden winning AZ.

GO JOE!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2020, 10:01:25 PM »
Biden. See my analysis in the results thread if you're interested.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2020, 10:49:19 PM »
It was announced for Biden a long time ago. But they still need to keep counting as there are plenty of outstanding votes.

I think the news outlets must be aware of something that we are not. I've heard that most of the remaining ballots are Biden-friendly based on where they are from.

There were several Trump friendly buckets. Must've come from the Sun City area the boonies, or an LDS area. They were from somewhere in Maricopa County, which covers most of the Phoenix metro area.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2020, 02:21:52 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2020, 10:01:25 PM
Biden. See my analysis in the results thread if you're interested.

GM,
Can you copy and paste it in this thread please.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2020, 06:56:50 PM »
Another update ...

Late Monday afternoon and very little movement.
Per NYT, Biden now leading by about 15,400 votes (still looks good for Biden to win AZ).
And still showing the % of estimated votes reported at 98%.
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