OH: Brown leads DeWine 48-39

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In the Governor race, Strickland leads Blackwell 53-37.

MOE is a fairly large 4.4%, though.

SUSA June 10-12.

http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_print.asp?id=53501

[Alcon]

Ohio really could stand another Mason-Dixon poll one of these days.

[Sarnstrom]

These numbers are awesome!! Hopefully they hold up through November.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Although I would really hope this was true it just seems unbelievable unfortunately, I'd have said it was the other way round: DeWine 48%, Brown 39%.  If Brown led DeWine ever, it would be something like 48%-47%. 

DeWine is in a good position to be in for an Ohio Republican; he's a moderate who can carry begruding conservatives and appeal to enough independents to carry him into office.  Brown is not a particularly personable or forceful politician.  If DeWine's opponent had been Strickland, Ryan or Hackett it would be another matter but sadly not. 

Still good news about Strickland though.  I'm beginning to believe he has a great chance to win a truly unfiying solid victory over Blackwell, in the region of 10%-15% margin which if nothing else will help Brown.  My prediction:

STRICKLAND 55%
BLACKWELL 43%

DEWINE 51%
BROWN 47%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ohio really could stand another Mason-Dixon poll one of these days.

Why? Is SUSA not right-wing biased enough for you?

[Alcon]

Ohio really could stand another Mason-Dixon poll one of these days.

Why? Is SUSA not right-wing biased enough for you?

Huh?

I have no vested interest in overpredicting or underpredicting the Democrats.  I'd rather be right than optimistic in any way.

I like Mason-Dixon because Mason-Dixon has a sterling record.

[Rococo4]

Ohio really could stand another Mason-Dixon poll one of these days.

That poll with Brown / DeWine contridicts every other poll for this race.  No reasonable person would believe Brown is up by that much.

[Defarge]

There was another poll with Brown ahead, earlier this month I think.

Trend, or two outliers?

[Adlai Stevenson]

The other poll was something like Brown by 1/2% not 9%.  There is no way Brown is ahead of DeWine by this much.  I don't expect him to lead at all during the campaign unless there is a general turnaround in the electorate or the political landscape.  If Brown wins then it will be an election night swing as Strickland is carrying Ohio and Democrats are taking most competetive Senate seats.  Thats how something like this usually happens. 

[Eraserhead]

I think the Rasmussen poll had Brown up by 3. He has the mo'. Honestly I have always thought Brown would win and by a larger margin then most have thought. Why? Bush, Taft and Strickland. Still, like others, I would like to see a few more polls confirm this.

Here is my early prediction though:

Brown 53%
Dewine 45%
Others 2%

[Eraserhead]

I wonder has there ever been a poll where Strickland didn't lead?

[TomC]

Good news, though I expect it will be up and down between now and November.

[TheresNoMoney]

I would be ecstatic if Sherrod Browns wins this race. He would be a much-needed voice for working people in the U.S. Senate.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060611/NEWS09/606110405/-1/RSS

Brown not running from his record
Democrats, and Republicans, agree that Senate hopeful not your average 'centrist'

By JIM TANKERSLEY
BLADE POLITICS WRITER


Just under five months before the November election, two things are clear about Ohio's pivotal U.S. Senate race:


Sherrod Brown is not the sort of centrist Democrat that seems to be all the rage this year.


Both Mr. Brown and his opponents are happy about that.

Most of the Democratic candidates in the handful of red and purple-state races that figure to dictate control of the U.S. Senate this fall have embraced the "centrist" label and platform; some, such as Pennsylvania's Bob Casey, boast conservative stances on abortion or other social issues.

Mr. Brown carries a more populist - Republicans derisively say "liberal" - banner in his Ohio battle with GOP incumbent Mike DeWine. He wants troops out of Iraq this year. He denounces America's free trade pacts. He criticizes Mr. DeWine's votes to repeal the estate tax and make some of President Bush's tax cuts permanent.

When Republicans rip his votes against certain military or intelligence spending, or his opposition to a federal constitutional same-sex marriage ban, Mr. Brown dismisses them with a "yeah, so?" shrug.

It's not a prevalent strategy, in Republican-leaning states or otherwise. Mr. Brown conceded as much recently, as he searched for the names of leading populists in Congress today. "I'm not sure," Mr. Brown said, before settling on Sen. Tom Harkin (D., Iowa). "They don't all jump to mind, do they?"

[© tweed]

Wow.  Brown won't win, probably, but hell, it's a race at least.

[Eraserhead]

Wow.  Brown won't win, probably, but hell, it's a race at least.

lol a race? Hes 9 points ahead!..but wait you are the guy who thinks Casey is gonna lose right?

[Smash255]

Ohio really could stand another Mason-Dixon poll one of these days.

That poll with Brown / DeWine contridicts every other poll for this race.  No reasonable person would believe Brown is up by that much.

I dobt Brown is up this much, but keep in mind some of those on the right made a lot out of the poll showing Dewine up by about 10 when it contradicteed everything else.  At this point I would say Brown has a small lead, but I doubt its 9

[Eraserhead]

Ohio really could stand another Mason-Dixon poll one of these days.

That poll with Brown / DeWine contridicts every other poll for this race.  No reasonable person would believe Brown is up by that much.

I dobt Brown is up this much, but keep in mind some of those on the right made a lot out of the poll showing Dewine up by about 10 when it contradicteed everything else.  At this point I would say Brown has a small lead, but I doubt its 9

We need another poll. If only they polled this race as much as Florida. ha

[TheresNoMoney]

The last Rasmussen poll on this race had Brown up by a few points.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

At least Brown would be against NAFTA and CAFTA.  DeWine seems all around worthless (he says he is pro-life but fails to back it up).

[jokerman]

I think Brown's populism will help him rally Southeast Ohio and give him a victory.

[© tweed]

Wow.  Brown won't win, probably, but hell, it's a race at least.

lol a race? Hes 9 points ahead!..but wait you are the guy who thinks Casey is gonna lose right?

A uni poll had DeWine up double digits.  The race is probably within a couple points right now either way.  I tend to think that at this instant Brown is up about 2-3% with many undecideds, but the campaign hasn't started yet and when it does, I thin DeWine will take the lead.  Brown really just represents inner Cleveland, which is cool, but all of the rural voters in Ohio won't go for that in large numbers.

[Eraserhead]

At least Brown would be against NAFTA and CAFTA.  DeWine seems all around worthless (he says he is pro-life but fails to back it up).

You know if a dude called "Reagan Raider" is going for Brown its over.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

At least Brown would be against NAFTA and CAFTA.  DeWine seems all around worthless (he says he is pro-life but fails to back it up).

You know if a dude called "Reagan Raider" is going for Brown its over.

Naw, only the PA race is over.

[Eraserhead]

At least Brown would be against NAFTA and CAFTA.  DeWine seems all around worthless (he says he is pro-life but fails to back it up).

You know if a dude called "Reagan Raider" is going for Brown its over.

Naw, only the PA race is over.

Ha true. I was half kidding but still...

[jokerman]

Wait.  Anyone else notice that "others" is at 11%.  Does anyone else find something funny about that?