Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the secound round?
#1
Gabriel Boric (Apuebo Dignidad, Left)
 
#2
Jose Antonio Kast (REP, far-right)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022  (Read 80878 times)
kaoras
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« Reply #75 on: April 10, 2021, 06:47:49 PM »
« edited: April 10, 2021, 07:05:45 PM by kaoras »

As a side note, I want to comment about the government attacks on the press.

In 2019, during the social uprising the government held a meeting with the TV channel executives. After the meeting, the TV channels stopped their special coverage of the protest and mostly returned to their normal programation.

This year, an aide of Piñera called the TV network "La Red" to complain about their editorial line, saying it was left-wing and that kind of line was bad for democracy.
 
A few weeks ago, Health Minister accused Washington Post and New York times of coordinating to publish fake news about Chile, after both reported factually about the spike on cases despite the vaccination drive.

Today it was revealed that the government called the Chilevisión TV Network to complain about the comment made by a TV host that joked about the existence of a Piñera variant of Covid while reporting about long lines in the capital during the lockdown. The government denies this but their track record speaks for itself.

This is just the tip of the iceberg of why I think the Right is an existential threat to this country. They are morally bankrupt, with 0 regards for basic democratic principles and at their core unreformed since Pinochet ( BTW, the brand new minister of labor is an ex-Pinochet functionary that sent a list of "subversive" students to the secret police, and his replacement as deputy is the son of a secret police agent incarcerated for torture!) , as the mass humans rights violations and absolute contempt for any kind of criticism of their incompetent management show.
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kaoras
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« Reply #76 on: April 21, 2021, 01:11:25 PM »

Well, the right is really freaking out and sounding all the alarm bells of electoral oblivion due to Piñera decision to take the third withdrawal of private pension funds to the Constitutional Court to stop it.

I think they are overreacting. This is a very unpopular move but is this really what's going to break the camel's back? I think that was broken quite some time ago and this thing isn't going to sink them that much.

Besides, the opposition is going to self-destruct again with another doomed impeachment of Piñera that is only going to cause them internal crisis and infighting. So if anything the only effect of this whole ordeal is to increase even more the number of votes wasted in the independent candidacies.
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EvilSovereign
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« Reply #77 on: April 22, 2021, 01:38:21 PM »

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 Chileans will appreciate this joke) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 

Wow, even after all these protests there is no far left? How the hell is the far right doing better there. Very sad, I remember reading about how the Communists were hoping for a breakthrough after Piñera ran the country into the ground
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kaoras
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« Reply #78 on: April 22, 2021, 01:56:59 PM »

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 Chileans will appreciate this joke) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 

Wow, even after all these protests there is no far left? How the hell is the far right doing better there. Very sad, I remember reading about how the Communists were hoping for a breakthrough after Piñera ran the country into the ground

That's because you don't know Chilean party acronyms Tongue. Chile Digno is the communist coalition and is now allied with the Broad Front. Both of them are called "extreme-left" by the right. Besides, that projection is really favorable to the right. I think is insane to think that they are only going to fall 3%
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EvilSovereign
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« Reply #79 on: April 22, 2021, 02:03:02 PM »

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 Chileans will appreciate this joke) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 

Wow, even after all these protests there is no far left? How the hell is the far right doing better there. Very sad, I remember reading about how the Communists were hoping for a breakthrough after Piñera ran the country into the ground

That's because you don't know Chilean party acronyms Tongue. Chile Digno is the communist coalition and is now allied with the Broad Front. Both of them are called "extreme-left" by the right. Besides, that projection is really favorable to the right. I think is insane to think that they are only going to fall 3%

Ah I see, that makes more sense then. Still a very distant third place, but if it is favorable to the right, that makes sense
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MaxQue
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« Reply #80 on: April 22, 2021, 03:20:49 PM »

Tres Quintos (Chile's Fruna version of 538 Chileans will appreciate this joke) released a base projection for the Constituent Convention election. It is based on 2017 parliamentary results and considers the current political alliances and the effects of social uprising.

Constituent Unity (DC-PPD-PS-PR-PRO) -Centre Left:  68 seats (66-75)
Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-EVO-PRI) - Right: 64 seats (60-70)
Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-PI) - Left: 10 seats (8-15)
Frente Amplio (RD-PL-C-CS) -Left: 9 (8-15)
Republican Party - Far Right: 1 seat (0-3)
Humanist Party - Left: 1 seat (0-3)
Ecologist Party -Left: 1 seat (0-3)
No Neutrales - Center leftish independent list: 1 seat (0-3)

The left would get 90 seats, 14 short of the 2/3 majority they want. Tres Quintos does not give a vote share but claims that the left would get over 60% of the vote but just 56% of seats

I think this projection is fine considering the amount of info available at the moment, even if I think it overshoots the right as a whole but underestimates the Republican Party. Most likely the humanist and ecologist will join some alliance and I think there will be a fair share of independents, but that's impossible to project in advance.

More details (and district per district breakdown) here: https://tresquintos.cl/constituyentes2021/
 

Wow, even after all these protests there is no far left? How the hell is the far right doing better there. Very sad, I remember reading about how the Communists were hoping for a breakthrough after Piñera ran the country into the ground

That's because you don't know Chilean party acronyms Tongue. Chile Digno is the communist coalition and is now allied with the Broad Front. Both of them are called "extreme-left" by the right. Besides, that projection is really favorable to the right. I think is insane to think that they are only going to fall 3%

Ah I see, that makes more sense then. Still a very distant third place, but if it is favorable to the right, that makes sense

They got very greedy and many of their usual allies walked away and allied with the center-left instead, if I remember other Chilean threads well.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #81 on: April 22, 2021, 04:11:01 PM »

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kaoras
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« Reply #82 on: April 25, 2021, 07:40:53 PM »

Governor Poll for the Metropolitan Region. Likely Voters:

Orrego (Unidad Constituyente-Centre left) 30,5%
Parot (Chile Vamos-Right) 20,2%
Maltés (PH- Left) 16,5%
Oliva (FA - Left ) 14,2%
Edwards (PREP - Far right) 8,4%
Joignant (PEV - Left) 6,4%
Martínez (FRVS - Centre-Left) 2%
Quilodrán (UPA - Far left) 1,8%

Jiles effect is in full force for Maltés, who is her husband. Is amazing that if FA hadn't split so much then the Right could have been locked out of the runoff. Nominally left of center candidates are north of 70% (A lot of Maltés voters are probably non-ideological though), so is almost sure that Orrego will win the runoff.
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Estrella
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« Reply #83 on: April 26, 2021, 01:20:00 AM »

Very cyberpunk vibes here



Neuroderechos?

Quote
The concern that artificial intelligence may allow the human brain to be interfered with in the not too distant future to insert or change thoughts or behaviors led to a constitutional reform and a bill to protect the privacy of mental data being submitted to the Chilean legislature last October.

"The constitutional reform is to establish the integrity of the human brain and that no one can intervene in it or violate its autonomy, because the mind is the space where the freedom and free will of human beings resides," explains Senator Guido Girardi, president of the Senate's Future Challenges Commission.

Girardi, who has been at the forefront of the initiative from the beginning, points out that the novel bill contemplates giving mental data the same status as organs in order to prevent anyone from trafficking them. In this way, it seeks to establish the so-called neuro-rights as a new category of human rights, a goal shared by members of Chilean academia.
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kaoras
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« Reply #84 on: April 27, 2021, 02:18:15 PM »

TC rejected the government request. Now the only option to stop the pension withdrawal bill is a veto. After pressure from Chile Vamos (scared of the electoral doom coming to them) Piñera had presented his own pension's fund withdrawal bill assuming that the Constitucional Tribunal would have declared the Congress bill illegal. Now he is totally outplayed and the opposition is calling his project a fourth withdrawal (Congress one was the third).

Is really hard to describe all these things, but it really feels like this government is over. This institutional order is basically finished. Piñera has no legitimacy, no political skills, no management abilities. The whole political system is in ruins with just the vague promise of the constituent process rebuilding it at some point in the future (if we don't keep delaying elections).

Piñera should have resigned in October-November of 2019. He staying has caused way more damage to this country and ironically the political system would have been less disrupted.
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ottermax
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« Reply #85 on: May 03, 2021, 10:05:51 PM »

Last I had read I thought Pamela Jiles was a bit of a joke? I'm a bit confused by her, is she a serious candidate for President, a popular populist, or just the entertaining Naruto copy? I find this all very fascinating and would love to be illuminated some more.
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kaoras
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« Reply #86 on: May 04, 2021, 04:29:37 PM »

Last I had read I thought Pamela Jiles was a bit of a joke? I'm a bit confused by her, is she a serious candidate for President, a popular populist, or just the entertaining Naruto copy? I find this all very fascinating and would love to be illuminated some more.

Jiles a lot of the time is deliberately clownish. His Naruto and Anime gimmick is because anime is really mainstream in Chile, among young people watching an anime series is as normal as watching a Netflix show (The only children's tv channel in the country is literally an anime channel, many of them with subtitles) so that helps her connect with some of the "Otakus-activists" that were born in the social uprising.

She was a well-known public figure in gossip journalism but she also participated in many opposition newspapers during the dictatorship. She has always had a very polemic style and has long been associated with left-leaning parties (the old extraparliamentary left that was not a part of the main centre-left coalition, Concertación). Unlike what some people say, I think she is genuinely left-wing, though more of the "I just hate the right and Pinochet" variety.

The reasons why she is leading the polls are because the situation was ideal for a populist surge. The right has presided over the destruction of the institutional and social order of this country and the leftist parties are a fragmented joke unable to unite behind a serious alternative political project. I predicted since the early days of the uprising that populism was a likely outcome and unfortunately time has proven me right. Pamela Jiles was very smart, she made the withdrawal of the private pension funds for Covid relief her pet project. This is a measure that gets extremely wide support because most people hate the private pension system (AFP) and the right had been hammering the idea that those funds were YOUR money in attempts to reject any kind of reform to the system. So of course, over 80% of people were eager to stick it to the AFP or to get "their OWN Money" back.

I think she is kinda serious about running for president, but well, you never know. His base is mostly non-ideological voters and I think she is a perfect fit for "fachos pobres" (poor people who vote for the right).
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« Reply #87 on: May 04, 2021, 08:53:31 PM »
« Edited: May 04, 2021, 08:59:03 PM by Heat »

I have heard the PH is something of a cult - would you agree?
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kaoras
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« Reply #88 on: May 04, 2021, 10:27:26 PM »

I have heard the PH is something of a cult - would you agree?

I have heard this from Spaniards because the Spanish PH apparently is a cult but I have never heard anything of that kind about the Chilean PH. They have always been a hippie protest leftist party until the breakout with the FA in 2017. Mind you that since last year Pamela Jiles efectively took over the party and now is her personal vehicle, most of the historic humanists leaders are now in a movement called Acción Humanista which is allied with the Communist Party.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #89 on: May 12, 2021, 11:33:54 AM »

3 days until the constituent elections. Any predictions on results?
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kaoras
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« Reply #90 on: May 12, 2021, 11:56:18 AM »

3 days until the constituent elections. Any predictions on results?

Predictions for Constituent Elections are all over the place. Some say that the right is still on track to 40% of seats, others say that they are at risk of falling below "el tercio" (33% of the seats needed for veto). For mayors, the consensus is that the right will be alright but the gubernatorial elections are going to be a bloodbath for them.

Anyway, here are some predictions for constituent electiosn:
  • The government still says that the right is going to get a third of the seats and the most voted list
  • "Electoral Expert" deputy Pepe Auth predicts: Chile Vamos 30% and 56 seats; Lista del Apruebo 24% and 43 seats; Apruebo Dignidad 19% and 30 seats; independent lists: 22% and 9 seats
  • Election site Tres Quintos: Chile Vamos 51-65 seats; Lista del Apruebo 51-59; Apruebo Dignidad 18-23; Others: 4-7.*
  • All of the following is what the party think it will get: EVOPOLI 6, UDI 30, PS 10-14, DC 10-12, PPD 6-8, PRO 2, PC 12, Comunes 5, Convergencia Social 6
  • Unidad Constituyente (Lista del Apruebo) think they will get in total about 40 seats

None of this considers the reserved seats for indigenous peoples.

From yours truly, my predictions would be: Lista del Apruebo 28%; Chile Vamos 28%, Apruebo Dignidad 22%, Independents and others: 22%. No idea about seats.
 
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #91 on: May 12, 2021, 12:07:08 PM »

3 days until the constituent elections. Any predictions on results?

Predictions for Constituent Elections are all over the place. Some say that the right is still on track to 40% of seats, others say that they are at risk of falling below "el tercio" (33% of the seats needed for veto). For mayors, the consensus is that the right will be alright but the gubernatorial elections are going to be a bloodbath for them.

Anyway, here are some predictions for constituent electiosn:
  • The government still says that the right is going to get a third of the seats and the most voted list
  • "Electoral Expert" deputy Pepe Auth predicts: Chile Vamos 30% and 56 seats; Lista del Apruebo 24% and 43 seats; Apruebo Dignidad 19% and 30 seats; independent lists: 22% and 9 seats
  • Election site Tres Quintos: Chile Vamos 51-65 seats; Lista del Apruebo 51-59; Apruebo Dignidad 18-23; Others: 4-7.*
  • All of the following is what the party think it will get: EVOPOLI 6, UDI 30, PS 10-14, DC 10-12, PPD 6-8, PRO 2, PC 12, Comunes 5, Convergencia Social 6
  • Unidad Constituyente (Lista del Apruebo) think they will get in total about 40 seats

None of this considers the reserved seats for indigenous peoples.

From yours truly, my predictions would be: Lista del Apruebo 28%; Chile Vamos 28%, Apruebo Dignidad 22%, Independents and others: 22%. No idea about seats.
 

Who are most of the Independents aligned with?
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kaoras
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« Reply #92 on: May 12, 2021, 12:39:49 PM »

Who are most of the Independents aligned with?

Like 90% of them are leftist. Them being so split is why the left has a poor vote share-seat conversion. There is some concern in high info voters about vote dispersion but I think is too little, too late.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #93 on: May 12, 2021, 12:57:48 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2021, 01:09:34 PM by seb_pard »

Due to my job I have not been able to participate in this thread as much as I would love to, but this weekend will dedicate all my free time to the election.

As a Chilean living abroad, I can't vote in this election, but based the commune I voted before, my choices would be the following:

Governor: Karina Oliva (Comunes - Broad Front)
Mayor: Nicolas Preuss (Christian Democrat - United for Dignity)
Counselor: Fabian Salas (Convergencia Social - Broad Front)
Constitutional Convention: Constanza Schonhaut (Convergencia Social - Apruebo Dignidad)

I'm particularly excited about Schonhaut and hope she can be elected, but her chances are not that high (although I would say that within my circles a lot of people will vote for her, including my mom).


Regarding predictions, I really don't know, but from what I'm reading and listening, Chile Vamos is going to do poorly (although being united help them, their own people are very dissatisfied). Hope the Broad Front performs well and that Patricio Zapata (DC), Guillermo Larrain (DC) and Agustin Squella (independent supported by the Liberal Party) can get elected, as they are people that I deeply admire and respect.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #94 on: May 12, 2021, 01:03:41 PM »

On the PH, I would say that they are a cult, I still remember a friend from high school that studied before my school at a very hippy school in Chile, and he had a friend that her mother was a member of the party (and was a perennial candidate in many elections) and she was very weird and was part of new age groups with other people that also were members of the party. I don't know if they are a cult, but they are weird people that do weird stuffs together.
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kaoras
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« Reply #95 on: May 12, 2021, 02:50:57 PM »

On the PH, I would say that they are a cult, I still remember a friend from high school that studied before my school at a very hippy school in Chile, and he had a friend that her mother was a member of the party (and was a perennial candidate in many elections) and she was very weird and was part of new age groups with other people that also were members of the party. I don't know if they are a cult, but they are weird people that do weird stuffs together.

I don't think hippies doing hippie stuff together counts as a cult. The humanist movement on its origins is somewhat cultish as shown in the book Palomita Blanca but considering how long and how often the party has been in the spotlight in the last 30 years if they were a real cult we would know for sure by now. Besides, maybe is a "Distrito 11" thing, you have those ecological communities there and what not Tongue

As a side note, remember when I say that anime was mainstream in Chile?:




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Former President tack50
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« Reply #96 on: May 12, 2021, 03:16:16 PM »

On the PH, I would say that they are a cult, I still remember a friend from high school that studied before my school at a very hippy school in Chile, and he had a friend that her mother was a member of the party (and was a perennial candidate in many elections) and she was very weird and was part of new age groups with other people that also were members of the party. I don't know if they are a cult, but they are weird people that do weird stuffs together.

I don't think hippies doing hippie stuff together counts as a cult. The humanist movement on its origins is somewhat cultish as shown in the book Palomita Blanca but considering how long and how often the party has been in the spotlight in the last 30 years if they were a real cult we would know for sure by now. Besides, maybe is a "Distrito 11" thing, you have those ecological communities there and what not Tongue

As a side note, remember when I say that anime was mainstream in Chile?:

snip


What's with Latin America and anime usage in politics? Tongue Between this candidate I mentioned on AAD in Perú (who wasn't even the only otaku pandering candidate in that election!) and now this in Chile; Latin America might have more anime in politics than even Japan itself lmao
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kaoras
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« Reply #97 on: May 12, 2021, 03:39:33 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2021, 03:43:27 PM by kaoras »

What's with Latin America and anime usage in politics? Tongue Between this candidate I mentioned on AAD in Perú (who wasn't even the only otaku pandering candidate in that election!) and now this in Chile; Latin America might have more anime in politics than even Japan itself lmao

Well, as I said, in Chile, and I think that's the case in other Latin American countries too, anime is not really a niche of those weird otakus with strange clothing. It is kinda like rock music, not everybody is into it, but nobody under 30 (40 even) bats an eye if you do. There's a generation that grew up watching anime on public TV and even most older people have been regularly exposed to older series (Perú and Ecuador even dubbed Super Sentai! before Power Rangers existed).  I watch anime and the majority of my friends watch too, but nobody would really fit the otaku stereotype and I don't know anyone who is really into anime conventions, cosplay, and that kind of stuff (despite that those people definitely exist!). Besides, Shingeki was HUUUUUUGE, even people who don't normally watch anime followed the series when the first season came out. So you shouldn't see this as pandering to otakus, but pandering to young people in general.
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« Reply #98 on: May 12, 2021, 04:48:03 PM »

I would say that in the case of Chile, my generation (from the 90s) was kind of a "baby boom" generation (see the population pyramid from 2017). During the 90s the country experienced high economic growth that translated in the expansion of the middle class in the country, of which a relatively important share hired cable TV.



In those times many public TV channels (like Chilevision and la Red) started to broadcast many Japanese cartoons, such as Saint Seiya, Dragon Ball, Slam Dunk, Detective Conan, Pokemon, etc.), in addition, a Chilean pay television channel (called Boomerang) was created and broadcasted Japanese cartoons all day. So basically all kids in those times watched those shows, because everyone did it (I wasn't that fan of anime, but watched nevertheless). Anime was the tv shows for kids. You need to mix that with internet arrival so many people started to discover animes that wasn't on public TV, such as Naruto.

Otakus are are niche but big culture, but most of the people of my age have a higher than usual knowledge on Anime. Still remember an ex-girlfriend, very preppy in a Chilean way, loved an obscure anime called Elfen Lied and had to watch with her (great show btw). And my best friend loves Shingeki no Kyiojin.


The same can be said abot the WWE, which was very popular in the 90s/2000 in Chile.

I think the situation would be similar in other latin american countries.
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« Reply #99 on: May 12, 2021, 06:56:27 PM »

Seems to me anime became mainstream in Latin America and perhaps some parts Continental Europe (such as Italy or Spain) before the Anglosphere, though I would say a lot of anime (especially shows like One Piece or Pokemon) are mainstream for Americans under 30 nowadays.
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