Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

These are the electoral pacts for the Municipal Elections:



Unidad Constituyente ended up in flames over the comuna of Quinta Normal in Santiago, disputed by PS and DC. This ended up breaking the alliance for mayoral elections with Unidad Por el Apruebo on one hand (PS-PPD-PR, Convergencia Progresista) and Unidos por la Dignidad (DC-PRO-CIU). PS and DC will fight each other in 6 comunas and some regional PS branches (like Maule) will not give support to DC candidates in retaliation. So yeah, Is highly unlikely that PS and DC will be on the same list for parliamentary elections in November.

Why there's so many lists for Councils elections? Because that way the can run more candidates. Chile Vamos will have 4 different lists, one for each party, Constituent Unity will have 3 (PS-PPD; PR;  DC-PRO-CIUD). Partido Liberal is obligated to run with Frente Amplio because they haven't left the coalition by the time they did the municipal primaries.

The only other party in that list that I had not mentioned is Nuevo Tiempo which is also an evangelical party.

[kaoras]

Paula Narváez is officially IN for the presidential race.  Jose Miguel Insulza left the race saying he didn't have enough support and it seems likely that PS will nominate Narvaés without primaries. (A primaries would be good for her to raise its name ID but no one seems willing to be the sacrificial lamb)

At this point, unless she ends up showing herself as a terrible campaigner and ends up in flames I'm fairly confident she will be the candidate from the Centre-Left/Unidad Constituyente. (and being a terrible campaigner never stopped Guillier from being nominated so...). Narváez is seen with good eyes by the PC (who have a soft spot for Bacheletismo) and reportedly by FA so it could open the door to a united primary. But is the Chilean left we are talking about so I doubt that's going to happen.

Also: Felipe Kast (EVOPOLI) will not run. EVOPOLI might run former party president Francisco Undurraga. Meanwhile, FA keeps searching for candidates since Beatriz Sanchez will run for the constitutional convention instead, some names like Patricia Muñoz (Ombudsman for children) and Gabriel Boric are being floated around.

[kaoras]

Update on the presidential race: 

In the PS, they decided to do a primary, but since they will give candidates just one week to get 500 signatures or 50 endorsements from party officials, Paula Narvaéz is almost sure to be the only candidate and therefore will be proclaimed next week.

In the DC, senator Ximena Rincón won the internal primary with 60% of the vote against former minister Alberto Undurraga. Rincón is from the left-wing of the DC and hasn't ruled out a primary with communist Daniel Jadue, but I will believe in a united primary when I see it. Turnout was 25k, down from 56k in 2013.

RN proclaimed Mario Desbordes with an enormous amount of internal drama that I can't be bothered to explain (though is quite interesting), the other potential candidate, Francisco Chahuán declined his candidacy and suspended his membership in the party accusing Desbordes of an "operation" against him (which is funny because Chahúan himself is a half-hearted operation against Desbordes, I'm going to be absolutely shocked when Chahúan endorses Sichel). Also, no freedom of action for Sichel lovers / Allamand-Larraín wing .

PPD will do internal primaries next week. Candidates are Heraldo Muñoz, Francisco Vidal, and Jorge Tarud. It will be either Muñoz or Vidal, most likely Muñoz.

EVOPOLI is very likely to run finance minister Ignacio Briones. That sounds like a terrible idea since he is very unpopular since he died in the AFP private pension hill, but whatever.

For the Constituent Elections, several lists had a lot of problems that will have to be sorted in the next few days. When the dust is settled I will give an update on that. SERVEL rejected 14 lists presented by Felices y Forrados (inadmissible, so they are out for good) and the whole Humanist Party list for not complying with the 5% quota of candidates with disabilities but PH could still fix that (though I hope they don't)

[kaoras]

More presidential updates, because SERVEL is still not done with the lists!

Paula Narvaez was officially nominated by the Socialist Party.

Heraldo Muñoz won the PPD primary with 54% against 43% for Francisco Vidal (and 2% for Tarud, lmao, he wasn't even able to vote for himself). The process itself was a sh**tshow with acussations of "machines" in behalf of Muñoz (is an internal election, duh, what else do you expect) and even rigging, but they don't seem very eager to continue the infighting. Muñoz isn't warm to the idea of a joint primary with PC and FA so that option is probably dead.

Muñoz and Narvaez will face each other in a pre-primary before the legal primaries of Unidad Constituyente. They say is a tradition that PS and PPD always have the same presidential candidate (translation: they don't want the DC to roll over them like in the municipal primaries) and have invited PRO and PL to that pre-contest since both parties also want to have presidential nominees because why not.

After Narvaez irruption, all the Unidad Constituyente candidates have been dancing around saying very unconvincingly that they are totally bacheletists and how great Bachelet was which is the easily the most pleasing and hilarious development in Chilean Politics for me since 2013.

As a side note, PL is in a Matrioshka that Spain's PCE could only dream of. PL is inside of Nuevo Trato which is inside of the Social-Democratic Pole which is inside of Unidad Constituyente.

On the Right: Ignacio Briones was nominated by EVOPOLI. That was really fast. Nothing else really besides the neverending drama in RN which I can't quite grasp.

[Estrella]

This is an older post, but I couldn't help noticing something:

Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR- Workers Revolutionary Party): Hilariously high-income Trotskyists, literally rich blonde guys role-playing as revolutionaries.

How strong is the correlation between race (if that's the correct word for it) and income in Chile? Like, is there a significant number of "visibly indigenous" middle class people or "white trash"?

[kaoras]

This is an older post, but I couldn't help noticing something:

Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR- Workers Revolutionary Party): Hilariously high-income Trotskyists, literally rich blonde guys role-playing as revolutionaries.

How strong is the correlation between race (if that's the correct word for it) and income in Chile? Like, is there a significant number of "visibly indigenous" middle class people or "white trash"?

According to genetic studies, low-income people generally have more indigenous ancestry than high-income people and incidentally is fairly obvious that rich people tend to be more "white" and European looking. However, in Chile mixing is so high that in urban areas is really difficult to, say, tell who has an indigenous last name just by their appearance. Obviously, there are some recognizable "traits" and mainly in rural communities you can find people "stereotypically indigenous" but there are tons and tons of "white-passing" indigenous (to use a U.S. term), including me who I'm registered in CONADI. You also have a lot of low-key racism, whiter is considered better, and is awfully common to hear that "I was whiter when I was a baby" o "your baby, fortunately salió blanquito", especially among low-income people. Of course, mixing being so high you can find literally anything, I have a cousin that is half indigenous and he is blond lol.

There is a significant indigenous middle class but I don't know if you would call it "visible" using the common understanding of the term. Recently there are people that form "indigenous" communities in cities, but most of them are people who left their communities to study and have integrated (while still maintaining indigenous pride) or people who can trace indigenous ancestry / have an evident indigenous last name but otherwise are totally indistinguishable from non indigenous people in their customs.

Most of the rural indigenous communities are very poor but there are exceptions obviously.

The relationship of all of that with voting is a kinda muddled topic since there isn't much research on that. The main predictor of voting in Chile is income, which behaves like an inverted U, the left being generally stronger in the middle-class areas. This however hides the fact that the relationship is fairly linear in urban zones (less income= more leftwing) and the rural poor areas are the ones who vote for the right.

[kaoras]

Okay, time for some updates.

Presidential race is boring. There's some controversy on the opposition about the PS-PPD pre-primary, PPD is fairly divided about it. Infamous Guido Guirardi (PPD) proposed doing it instead of the Unidad Constituyente primary, excluding the DC, which is funny, but not going to happen. But maybe DC president takes a hint a tone down the anti-PC holier than thou rhetoric which has become unbearable, because at this rate the DC is going to be left alone for parliamentary elections (well, maybe with PRO hilariously enough).

Campaign for municipal and constituent elections has started. The government is studying doing the election on 2 days because of the 4 different ballots with dozens of candidates each, others have proposed doing it on 2 separate weekends, maybe something will come out of it.

Tres Quintos Did an updated projection for the Constituent Election for the 138 regular seats.

Lista del Apruebo: 60
Vamos Chile: 53
Apruebo Dignidad: 22
Independientes No Neutrales: 2
Ecologists: 1

This projection is based on the 2017 parliamentary elections results with a ton of educated guesses (not like they could do any other thing since Chile doesn't really do polls for party vote)

What I found interesting is that this projection assumes that the right (Vamos Chile) will only lose 3% from the 2017 parliamentary elections which is fairly optimistic I would say. I found it interesting because the right, in their own words, is only expecting to get 4 seats for the reserved indigenous seats. 57 is not that far above the 1/3 of seats, 51 (The Constituent Convention will operate with a 2/3 quorum).

The 1/3 discussion is way overrated since is not like the DC and company are going to vote for anything radical anyway, but the psychological impact would be huge.

[kaoras]

Doing the elections in 2 days (Saturday and Sunday) got rejected by lack of quorum (fell 10 votes short of 2/3 required). It will now go to mixed committee to see if it can be saved. Another proposal is delaying mayoral and council elections to the second round of gubernatorial elections in May.

The campaign has started but I see a lot of indecision, especially regarding the constituent election. Political Analyst consensus is that Vamos por Chile should do well, being the most voted list with 30% of the vote and 40% of the seats thanks to opposition dispersion. They see Lista del Apruebo even or a bit behind at 25-30% and Apruebo Dignidad at 15-20%. They see an independent list taking up to 30% of the vote but getting very few seats due to vote dispersion. (A poll said that 40% is planning on voting for independent lists, but I don't think it will go that high).

My rule of thumb for Chilean politics is that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of whatever the analyst consensus is, but well, we'll see.

BTW, Lumine, have you seen anecdotal evidence of rightist voters planning not to vote for Vamos por Chile list?. I would guess that the type of voters in your district would tend to be more loyal but I'm still curious if you see some defection.

[Lumine]

BTW, Lumine, have you seen anecdotal evidence of rightist voters planning not to vote for Vamos por Chile list?. I would guess that the type of voters in your district would tend to be more loyal but I'm still curious if you see some defection.

Oddly enough, I have, but for the most part concentrated in the municipal elections (for example, a lot of people are deserting Andrea Molina in Viña del Mar to favor one of the right-wing independents, and this is likely to repeat itself in a number of places regardless of whether the Republicanos are competing or not). What I have sensed that might affect the constituent result is - in some people I know - a similar feeling than 2012-2013, when you could see a general sense of disappointment set in among right-wing voters due to Piñera's first government, with the subsequent turnout drop and consecutive defeat.

In this context - and since the October debacle - I'm certainly aware of people (including politically active ones) who've moved away from the coalition as a whole, some to favor Republicanos - though not as many as I expected -, but more to fuel the ranks of the so called "independents" the right always needs to break out of the supposed 1/3 safety net in the vote.

30% is not an unreasonable assumption, but I'd call it optimistic. Although it seems people are willing - up to a point - to differentiate between Piñera and the coalition (sort of the dark inversion of people overlooking Bachelet's popularity in 2008-2009 to punish her coalition), I think the sheer harm inflicted on the Chilean right by Piñera is being underestimated and is likely to be a long term issue. Personally, I'm betting we'll actually be getting 25-28% in the constituents - even if our mayors overperform -, the Lista del Apruebo will get first place (barely) and all the independents and small lists will get far more votes than people expect, only to be kept out of the Convention through the system and vote dispersion.

[kaoras]

Personally, I'm betting we'll actually be getting 25-28% in the constituents - even if our mayors overperform -, the Lista del Apruebo will get first place (barely) and all the independents and small lists will get far more votes than people expect, only to be kept out of the Convention through the system and vote dispersion.

So we have basically the exact same prognostic for the elections then. Anecdotally in Valdivia the UDI mayor is really scared of an independet ex-RN candidate, but the left's candidates are so awful I think he might win anyway. I'm seriously considering voting for the FA candidate, that's how bad it is. If this country had serious polling I would just vote for whoever had a higher chance to win, but we are in Chile. For governor elections there is some polling, Orrego is winning in the Metropolitan region, Aedo (ind. ex-DC) in Bio-Bio and Tuma (PPD) in Araucanía.

[kaoras]

The constituent and municipal election will be done in 2 days of voting, after all, April 10th-11th. This is because of the record number of candidates and the gigantic 4 ballots. Observers will be able to stay at the voting centers overnight. I can see Kast crying out "fraud" from kilometers away.

The PS-PPD pre-primary is as good as dead. Heraldo Muñoz proposed doing an opinion poll instead which I think speaks for itself about the strategic skills of his campaign. Narvaez obviously rejected that idea. In the end, I think they will both go to the centre left primary in July, and Narvaez is favored according to polling even when Muñoz is factored in. Also, after acting as insufferable jerks, the DC is shocked that PS is supporting FA mayoral candidates instead of DC ones.

[kaoras]

Today is Piñera second government third anniversary. He announced some COVID relief and made a balance about his administration. What caught my attention is that the only mention he made to the social uprising was that he faced an irrational wave of violence.

Piñera and most of the right still haven't made any serious attempt to understand the subjacent causes of the violence. They are still stuck with their earlier rhetoric that the whole thing was an orchestrated attempt to overthrown them. That's why they weren't and will never be able to deal with the violence, as exemplified by the removal of the statue of general Baquedano from the plaza that was the epicenter of protest and has protest and violence every Friday. The Army and security forces, specially Carabineros, are totally tone-deaf too and don't understand why so many people hate them, the Army released a statement calling the protesters "anti-Chileans" (which is rich coming from an institution that has only killed Chileans since 1890). There hasn't been a serious attempt to be accountable for the human rights violation, the killings, tortures, and widespread during the uprising. The Government has only unconditional support to offer to security forces so they don't feel the need to change anything. And the Right still thinks that FA and PC control the protesters, that if they only "condemned violence" (which they do) then it would stop.

They still can't understand that people have many frustrations with the political and economic system, and it showed in the Reject campaign and in the constituent election to a certain extent. Until some serious changes are made violence won't be stopped. But the problem is that they haven't even made the attempt to make even symbolic gestures of their own will. The constituent plebiscite and elections only came to be after an extremely violent general strike and many in the right now that the time has passed feel that it was a mistake to sign that accord. What Piñera and the right have shown to the people in the last 2 years is that the only way to get some concessions from them is to set everything on fire and scare the sh*t out of them, is a self-defeating loop.

[kaoras]

La Franja Electoral is here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ2nSxMrofY | Apruebo Dignidad, Lista del Apruebo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3a3vRJW4nk | Vamos por Chile.

Is as meaningless as always. I found the communist one to be the best even if appeals only to the faithful. Also, the time allocated to indigenous candidates is hilariously short.

[kaoras]

"Electoral expert", deputy Pepe Auth (not exactly known for his accuracy) is projecting that Chile Vamos could get as few as 0 regions for the gubernatorial elections.

His projection is:

Unidad Constituyente: 10-12 regions, comprising 58-63% of the total population
Center Left Independents: 2-3 regions, comprising 12-16% of the population
Frente Amplio: 0-1 regions and 0-11% of population (Valparaíso)
Chile Vamos: 0-3 regions and 0-15% of population.

I have to say that Chile Vamos with 0 regions is my wishful thinking prediction but is not totally out of the realm of possibilities. Is an open secret that Catalina Parot (EVOPOLI) is way behind Orrego (DC) in the Metropolitan Region and a poll in Araucanía, the most right-wing region of the country, had PPD Eugenio Tuma ahead with 30% and Chile Vamos candidate in single digits.

[kaoras]

There is some talk about delaying the elections due the worsening COVID situation. The number of ICU hospital beds available is very low and keeps dropping and the number of active cases is near historic highs.

Delaying these elections further would be a total mess considering the tight electoral schedule and an endless number of legal complications that would ensue. That's why no one wants to delay them, but the talk doesn't stop.

[bigic]

Chile's vaccination rate seems to be pretty good - will this help the governing right?

[kaoras]

Chile's vaccination rate seems to be pretty good - will this help the governing right?

Maybe, the process has been widely praised, though save for one pollster (CADEM) Piñera approval has remained stuck in the low teens. Another factor is that we are currently in the worst wave of the pandemic and a lot of municipalities in the capital are going back to lockdown, which could drown the success of the vaccination drive.

[kaoras]

Gabriel Boric was proclaimed as presidential candidate by his party Convergencia Social a few days ago. Boric is basically "Plan C" after Beatriz Sanchez, Fernando Atria and other names declined to run.

Boric was one of the student leaders from the 2011 protest and was elected deputy (running as independent) in 2013. He was very critical of Bachelet second government, was a founder of FA, and his movement fused into CS. He signed the Constitutional Accord as an individual (since he couldn't get his party behind).

_{I wish him the worst, entitled whiny rich boy}

[kaoras]

Even though the government insists that the elections will not be moved, the critical COVID situation in the country could make a delay inevitable. ICUs are at their limit capacity and most regions keep breaking records of new infections.

On one hand, I really want to be done with these elections as soon as possible, but the situation really looks very dire.

[kaoras]

Yeah... The elections will be moved to May 8th and 9th, sigh. I will change the title when it becomes official.

[Octowakandi]

So what's Lavin like? Is he a pretty generic conservative?

[kaoras]

So what's Lavin like? Is he a pretty generic conservative?

Not really, some people say he is a populist, but he isn't populist in the common understanding of the word. He would likely be extremely orthodox in economic matters. The thing is that his policies are extremely gimmicky, all new and innovative and not actually that effective but they are so shiny and help him build his image as someone who was "ideas" to solve problems. That has been a source of criticism in the past, saying he is all gimmick with no grand political project or ideology ( "cosismo") He has also draw a lot of ire because of his unorthodox labeling. In 2007 he declared himself Bacheletista-Aliancista (Bachelet is the former socialist president of Chile and Alianza was the name of the rightist coalition at the time) and last year he claimed that he was a "social democrat", a particularly infamous remark.

I see the Bacheletista-Aliancista and socialdemocrat stuff as just lame attempts to appeal to the center and to appear as above ideology and polarization (he also talks a lot about doing a government of national unity and so on). I think that if he actually wins he would govern as a very standard conservative (by Chile standards). But a lot of rightists are wary of him because of the reasons I mentioned.

[kaoras]

The delay of the elections is finally official. The new date is May 15-16th. The new electoral schedule ends up like this:

Constituent, municipal and gubernatorial elections: May 15-16th
Runoff for gubernatorial elections: June 13th.
Presidential Primary: July 18th
Presidential and Paliamentary elections: November 21th (no change)
Presidential Runoff: December 19th (no change)

[Estrella]

The delay of the elections is finally official. The new date is May 15-16th. The new electoral schedule ends up like this:

Constituent, municipal and gubernatorial elections: May 15-16th
Runoff for gubernatorial elections: June 13th.
Presidential Primary: July 18th
Presidential and Paliamentary elections: November 21th (no change)
Presidential Runoff: December 19th (no change)

Obviously a bureaucratic clusterf/ck is preferable to keeping Piñera in office a day longer than necessary, but it would be much better if the general election took place under a new constitution. I wonder what happens if there is, say, a change to the number of deputies elected or, more seriously, to the role of President; will those only apply to their successors?

[kaoras]

The delay of the elections is finally official. The new date is May 15-16th. The new electoral schedule ends up like this:

Constituent, municipal and gubernatorial elections: May 15-16th
Runoff for gubernatorial elections: June 13th.
Presidential Primary: July 18th
Presidential and Paliamentary elections: November 21th (no change)
Presidential Runoff: December 19th (no change)

Obviously a bureaucratic clusterf/ck is preferable to keeping Piñera in office a day longer than necessary, but it would be much better if the general election took place under a new constitution. I wonder what happens if there is, say, a change to the number of deputies elected or, more seriously, to the role of President; will those only apply to their successors?

If Piñera were to extend his period a single day (an idea that has been floated around unironically by some UDI and anonymous government sources) I'm pretty sure that the country would be set on fire at lightning speed

All the changes will likely end up applied to their successors only, besides, the timetable is fairly long and includes another exit plebiscite. But honestly, no one has given it a serious thought.