Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Edu]

Ah, to be in the mid-90's religiously watching episodes of Caballeros del Zodiaco (Saint Seiya) again everyday.  Those were the times

[Velasco]

I have vague memories of Power Rangers and Caballeros del Zodiaco. They must have been glorious, but I wasn't a schoolkid fan

[Estrella]

This isn't related to the elections, but it's still mildly interesting: if I had a nickel for every time a company called Penta got involved in a scandal involving financial fraud and funneling money to politicians, especially those with connections to a former dictatorship... I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice - both in Chile and in Slovakia. It's not even the same company, just two unrelated ones on opposite sides of the globe that happen to be in the same business and have the same name.

[kaoras]

Poll for district 11. Chile Vamos got 63% there in 2013.

The seat distribution would be Chile Vamos 4, Lista del Apruebo 1, Apruebo Dignidad 1. Independientes por Chile (centrist list of ex-DC led by Mariana Aylwin, daughter of former presiden Patricio Aylwin) would be very close to getting 1 at the expense of Chile Vamos.

Worth nothing that this poll excludes 6 small leftists list, and half of the candidates of Apruebo Dignidad and Independientes por Chile, without even giving the option for "other", but well... is something

My takeaway of this is that the vote share for Chile Vamos /Vamos for Chile is beyond awful. Like, apocalyptic level awful. At his favor is that in district 11 they have competition from Mariana Aylwin and small far-right candidates like Henry Boys and Francisco Orrego, but this is supposed to be the most disciplined electorate of the right. In other districts, voters with no other appealing options could just end up not voting at all.

[seb_pard]

They are the most disciplined electorate, but they are now in total disarray (that is why you have Henry Boys, Gonzalo de la Carrera, Rojo Edwards, etc etc).

Just sent this image to some friends that were supposed to vote for La Lista del Pueblo because they think the right will take all seats of the district (despite that is nearly impossible due to La Reina and Penalolen)

[seb_pard]

Just listened a short interview with Axel Callis (sociologist and electoral analyst) on what to expect this weekend. Key takeaways:
-Despite that there are some uncertainties regarding the logistics of a 2-day election (particularly due to lack of infrastructure in some places of the country), we can expect a relatively smooth process
-High probability of lower participation than the previous referendum (7.5m voters), but he thinks interest have increased in the last days and there is a feeling among the population that this is an historic election. So he thinks there is a 6m floor. The turnout will depend on youth population (which increased by massive numbers in the last election, particularly in working class parts) and +65 population (which was very low last election). The latter will probably increased due to vaccination process, but by how much is the question.
-Despite what people are commenting, expect a fast counting process. SERVEL will probably publish first results around 8:30pm and from there we can expect a fast bleeding of votes. Order will be: Constitutional members, Governors, Mayors, Counselors
-Regarding the Constitutional Convention, expect a lot of unknown names (to our centralist society) to appear in the spotlight on Monday. Independent members, regional leaders and women will make a surprise.

If you want to listen the interview click the following link (around 20 minutes interview, starts at 1:16:30)
https://sonarfm.cl/sonar-informativo-0#

[kaoras]

More projections:

As for young participation, from what I can tell those who voted in the plebiscite still plan to vote on these elections.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

More projections:

As for young participation, from what I can tell those who voted in the plebiscite still plan to vote on these elections.

So they all have the right over 1/3 of the seats? Shame, but I suppose it’s not unexpected.

[kaoras]

So they all have the right over 1/3 of the seats? Shame, but I suppose it’s not unexpected.

I think that all of those projections are fighting the last war. Is still very probable that the right managed 1/3 of the seats because of vote dispersion, but there are huge number of undecided voters (who still want to vote) and I think they will break mostly towards independents.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

OK i know this is a rather dumb question, but why are this elections held now and not later in the year along with the presidential and legislative elections?

[kaoras]

OK i know this is a rather dumb question, but why are this elections held now and not later in the year along with the presidential and legislative elections?

The original date of these elections was in October last year, making them coincide with the regularly scheduled municipal elections. They were delayed to April due to Coronavirus and again to today. The political situation of the country really makes it impossible to delay them longer and 7 different ballots at the same time (what would happen if they were held with the rest of the elections) would be an extremely bad idea. People are already struggling with 4.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

OK i know this is a rather dumb question, but why are this elections held now and not later in the year along with the presidential and legislative elections?

The original date of these elections was in October last year, making them coincide with the regularly scheduled municipal elections. They were delayed to April due to Coronavirus and again to today. The political situation of the country really makes it impossible to delay them longer and 7 different ballots at the same time (what would happen if they were held with the rest of the elections) would be an extremely bad idea. People are already struggling with 4.

Does each category have it's individual ballot?

[Mike88]

Any reports about turnout?

[kaoras]

Does each category have it's individual ballot?

Yes, and for councils and constituents, they are quite big. To vote in Chile you need some skills in origami. Here is an example of a ballot for councilliors:

Any reports about turnout?

19,01% with 94% of polling places reporting. So ~20% of turnout the first day. Worth noting that there is some concern among left-wingers about voting on Saturday because they don't trust the military to keep the votes safe. Don't know how widespread that is.

[seb_pard]

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Turnout of 20.5% (3mm people). 41.31% in Vitacura (where Rechazo won with 66%).

But I think we can expect higher turnout tomorrow (my bet is that will be significantly higher).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Turnout of 20.5% (3mm people). 41.31% in Vitacura (where Rechazo won with 66%).

But I think we can expect higher turnout tomorrow (my bet is that will be significantly higher).

Lower than for the original plebiscite? Or about the same?

[kaoras]

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Turnout of 20.5% (3mm people). 41.31% in Vitacura (where Rechazo won with 66%).

But I think we can expect higher turnout tomorrow (my bet is that will be significantly higher).

Lower than for the original plebiscite? Or about the same?

In Vitacura is way higher. In Santiago is clear that right-wing areas voted more. In other regions, it seems more random.

[seb_pard]

https://www.servelelecciones.cl

Turnout of 20.5% (3mm people). 41.31% in Vitacura (where Rechazo won with 66%).

But I think we can expect higher turnout tomorrow (my bet is that will be significantly higher).

Lower than for the original plebiscite? Or about the same?

I think final turnout will be slightly lower than the original plebiscite. Important to have in mind that yesterday's turnout was 40% of last year, so is not that low.

[Mike88]

Will there be exit polls/predictions when polls close at 6PM (local time)?

[seb_pard]

Will there be exit polls/predictions when polls close at 6PM (local time)?

I don't think so, Chile don't use Exit Polls here. What you can expect is live counting on TV (so TV stations start to compile data across the country)

https://youtu.be/UUZHINr7RLE?t=2182

This is an example of what you can expect after 6pm

[seb_pard]

One important info: Magallanes Region (the southernmost of the country) have a different time zone and they will close polls 1 hour before the rest of the country, so the counting will start at that time.

Magallanes have become one of the most interesting regions of the country: They have a strong autonomist/separatist sentiment with movements aiming for more decision-making competences,  Apruebo won with 79.6% and is one of the two regions (the other one being Aysen, just north of Magallanes) where Guillier beat Piñera (56.3% vs 43.7). In addition, the region has one of the largest Croatian communities outside Croatia (in terms of share of population)

[kaoras]

Turnout seems pitiful. I'm now pessimistic nationwide, but my region could be my consolation price. I'm going to be a poll watcher so I'll trust seb_pard to give updates when results start to come in.

Here are some resources:

English info about the major lists: https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1393989762244136963

Result's page: https://www.servelelecciones.cl/

Alternative result page which should be slower but with way more data: https://www.decidechile.cl/

[seb_pard]

Polls starting to close in Magallanes, will try to update results as they are released

If you want to watch some news and live counting, I recommend the following streaming (joint transmission between CNN Chile and Chilevision), it doesn't require a VPN:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD5Of2I8JXk

[seb_pard]

Counting started with Constitutional Members-Indigenous groups (17 seats in total).

[seb_pard]

First poll stations counting the general Constitutional in Punta Arenas, and independent Andrea Pivcecic, regionalist Elisa Giustinianovich and Rodrigo Alvarez (UDI and former Pinera minister) are doing fine, although these are preliminary/anecdotical results.

This region elects 3 constitutional members