Biden to hold record for fewest number of counties carried while still winning?

[Calthrina950]

The counting is not done, but I don’t see how he gets even Obama’s 2012 number. He may do better than Hillary.

I would agree with this. I believe someone estimated that he's carrying ~530 counties thus far. That will be a new record. The Democrats truly have become dependent upon massive margins in populous urban and suburban areas to fuel their victories. In the states that Biden has flipped back (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin), he's only winning a few more counties than Clinton did, and far fewer than Obama in his two elections.

[Calthrina950]

Counties have wildly different populations, so this is irrelevant to just about everything other than to say that Republicans will continue to hold a disproportionately large number of local offices compared to what one would expect given the number of Republican voters.

And to think that he isn't just winning, but is poised to get the highest popular vote in history.

Both of these are true. As the old adage says, "Land doesn't vote, but people do." And this election truly has demonstrated that to a considerable extent. But it's still fascinating to think about, and as was pointed out on here, Biden is also poised to carry a smaller number of counties than Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Carter in 1980, Humphrey, Stevenson, Smith, Davis, Cox, Bryan, and Parker-and all of these men lost.

[Calthrina950]

The counting is not done, but I don’t see how he gets even Obama’s 2012 number. He may do better than Hillary.

I would agree with this. I believe someone estimated that he's carrying ~530 counties thus far. That will be a new record. The Democrats truly have become dependent upon massive margins in populous urban and suburban areas to fuel their victories. In the states that Biden has flipped back (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin), he's only winning a few more counties than Clinton did, and far fewer than Obama in his two elections.

The cook-countyfication of the democratic party.

That's certainly true. Even in Colorado, which Biden is winning by 13%, he was unable to hold all of Hillary Clinton's counties-Trump won Alamosa County, which last went Republican in 2004 for George W. Bush, and Biden could not regain Huerfano, Las Animas, or Conejos Counties, all of which Obama had carried twice. He did flip Chaffee, Grand, and Garfield Counties, however.

[Calthrina950]

Comparing Biden to any pre-1960 Democratic nominee isn't really fair. Seeing as they were basically guaranteed to win the entirety of the south.

Even 1976 seems so different now. Ford almost won the election (by that, I mean he lost by less than recent Republicans who won more land area) despite winning noticeably fewer counties than Carter.

It's astonishing that 1976, which was such a close election, is also the last election in which the Democratic candidate won a majority of the nation's counties.

[Calthrina950]

Comparing Biden to any pre-1960 Democratic nominee isn't really fair. Seeing as they were basically guaranteed to win the entirety of the south.

Even 1976 seems so different now. Ford almost won the election (by that, I mean he lost by less than recent Republicans who won more land area) despite winning noticeably fewer counties than Carter.

It's astonishing that 1976, which was such a close election, is also the last election in which the Democratic candidate won a majority of the nation's counties.

And the last election where the winning candidate won a minority of the 50 states.

(If Biden wins GA he will be at exactly 25).

That's also true. Carter's sweep of virtually all the rural counties in the South, including his total sweep of his home state of Georgia (and its 159 counties), is why he was able to win the overall national majority, despite carrying fewer states than Ford.

[Calthrina950]

Ultimately, Biden carried 538 counties, while Trump won 2,574, per Atlas' figures. Biden flipped just 48 counties that Trump had won in 2016, which has to be the lowest number of county flips for a winning presidential candidate ever. I'm not sure exactly how many Clinton counties were flipped by Trump. I'll try to find that out.