Would Trump have won the election without COVID?

[Chips]

I'm tilting toward #4. Obviously if COVID would've never happened Biden wouldn't have been able to attack Trump on the 230,000 Americans dead and the falling COVID economy. Trump probably would've cruised to victory albeit not as big of a victory as he would've liked. 328-210 and a 1-2% popular vote win. I would've voted third-party.

[Sumner 1868]

No, I honestly think lockdown resentment is where is R vote surge came from. During the early days of COVID, seventy-somethings in my town were by far the ones least respectful of the shutdown. I doubted those polls showing Biden sweeping the elderly from the start.

[bagelman]

Honestly there's an argument for Trump's overprefomance being a huge reaction against COVID restrictions.

[Chips]

Honestly there's an argument for Trump's overprefomance being a huge reaction against COVID restrictions.

That is also true.

[omar04]

IMO a loss, not the 411 map, but not a nailbiter. Somewhere around 334-204 if the economy slows down by election day.

[Agonized-Statism]

There are a lot of moving parts to COVID. On one hand, the anti-mask movement was highly motivated to vote. On the other hand, just as many suburbanites turned on Trump for the economy. It's hard to say who in the suburban revolt went Biden because they disliked Trump's personality and who did for his COVID response and the recession. IMO, no COVID and therefore no Second Great Depression (let's call it what it is, this is no little recession like we might have been headed into otherwise) is enough to make the difference against a weak Biden/Harris ticket. And yes, it's a weak ticket. The fact that the race is so close when Trump is such an incredibly weak incumbent is telling. As with Obama, his reelection is by a much less comfortable margin.

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)

[NewYorkExpress]

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 50% 348 EV
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 46% 190 EV

Basically a whitelash over the BLM protests (think Fuzzy Bear on steroids), made worse by Biden's pick of Harris allows Trump to flip Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire and come within half a percent or so of flipping New Mexico.

[Mr.Phips]

I actually think that COVID gave Trump a golden opportunity to show leadership by taking it seriously and handling it.  Basically like Bush after 9/11.  He refused to take it seriously and lost.

[bagelman]

[snip]
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 50% 348 EV
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 46% 190 EV

Basically a whitelash over the BLM protests (think Fuzzy Bear on steroids), made worse by Biden's pick of Harris allows Trump to flip Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire and come within half a percent or so of flipping New Mexico.

New Mexico, a more rural state critically WITHOUT a major metro area (Denver) voted right of CO for the first time since 1968 in OTL. New Mexico could surprise us and vote for Trump before Colorado. Also VA is safe D and will not vote Trump.



330-208 Trump give or take ME statewide and NM.

Of course I might be wrong as they might have more issues with COVID restrictions than CO but this is informed by the supermassive swings against Biden in the Rio Grande having some effect on NM.

[Samof94]

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 50% 348 EV
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 46% 190 EV

Basically a whitelash over the BLM protests (think Fuzzy Bear on steroids), made worse by Biden's pick of Harris allows Trump to flip Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire and come within half a percent or so of flipping New Mexico.

So basically 2004?

[Lord Admirale]

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 50% 348 EV
Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 46% 190 EV

Basically a whitelash over the BLM protests (think Fuzzy Bear on steroids), made worse by Biden's pick of Harris allows Trump to flip Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire and come within half a percent or so of flipping New Mexico.

No way Virginia goes to Trump.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Yes, but only narrowly. Trumps polarizing personality and views ensured that 2020 was going to be a tight race regardless of who is opponent was or COVID. Unless his opponent was Stacey Abrams, he was in for a tough fight.

[Samof94]

What if a recession pops up? There is evidence of early signs of a recession starting in 2019.

[Mr.Phips]

What if a recession pops up? There is evidence of early signs of a recession starting in 2019.

That could have been possible.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What if a recession pops up? There is evidence of early signs of a recession starting in 2019.

The recession was probably gonna be an early 2000s style recession though so it might not have much effect

[President Johnson]

Hot take: Covid did not have an effect overall.