Arizona... 2020 fluke?

[pbrower2a]

No. Fast-growing Mexican-American population and a faster-growing Mexican-American electorate. Lots of people moving in from California to get away from high rents and taxes, taking their political beliefs with them (although many leaving California are Mexican-Americans, which creates obvious overlap).

See California or New Mexico in the 1990's, Colorado and Nevada in the Double-Zero Decade, and Te4xas in the 2020's.   

[pbrower2a]

The Arizona Republican Party may be a dying machine that can't stave off demographic change. Dying machines support weak nominees who prove brittle targets for opponents who have fresh ideas and policies.  The GOP in Georgia might be that, too.

Hispanics, largely Mexican-Americans, are assimilating into the American middle class... and they are beginning to develop some concern for topics that usually favor Republicans among white people (taxes and immigration). Note well that many Mexican-Americans are marrying white non-Hispanic people in Arizona, and plenty of people who somehow identify as Mexican-American have a non-Mexican-American parent.

This said, Mexican-Americans generally still have patterns hostile to the GOP. Mexican-Americans are not as anti-intellectual as whites of similar economic status, and Trump's blatant anti-intellectualism is an affront to anyone who either is proud of his formal education or sees formal education as necessary for an escape from poverty.

Republicans will be wise to abandon Trump's anti-intellectualism if they want to win in non-safe bailiwicks in 2022 and later.